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Thread: 2-4-13 siri Convertibles and not Mustangs

  1. #1
    imromo24 is offline
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    2-4-13 siri Convertibles and not Mustangs

    Looking short term I feel I definitely called staying out correctly. It was telling in the charts something was due and siri filed after hours on friday to allow digestion.

    As I have read today could again go either way. Hundreds of Millions of shares dilution, increased debt for reduced interest payments seem to be up for evaluation.

    I'll let mr. Market decide then make mine this time

  2. #2
    denco1 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    Looking short term I feel I definitely called staying out correctly. It was telling in the charts something was due and siri filed after hours on friday to allow digestion.

    As I have read today could again go either way. Hundreds of Millions of shares dilution, increased debt for reduced interest payments seem to be up for evaluation.

    I'll let mr. Market decide then make mine this time
    Morining all!

    Good to see SIRI up in PM. Maybe a test of 3.30 is in the cards before the CC.

    @IMR24

    The market should react positively to the removal of the toxic debt. This marks the end of the BK era for SIRI once an for all.
    Sure, many shares will enter the market upon conversion but Liberty will need to increase their position to remain above 50%. So, either they will be buying or SIRI will start the buy backs. In fact, I would not be surprised if they bought the shares back directly from the Bond Holders upon conversion. In the buy back statement the ability to buy back through direct private deals was stated. What a perfect time to do just that. As far as your "short term" decision. I think you are on the wrong side short term, no doubt, as in Friday and today. Now the CC is always a wild card. We can pop and drop or we can pop and run a bit or we can drop. Either way your call for 2.90s before a pop was wrong. Why, because the pop has already happened, its over, on to your NEXT prediction.

  3. #3
    denco1 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    Morining all!

    Good to see SIRI up in PM. Maybe a test of 3.30 is in the cards before the CC.

    @IMR24

    The market should react positively to the removal of the toxic debt. This marks the end of the BK era for SIRI once an for all.
    Sure, many shares will enter the market upon conversion but Liberty will need to increase their position to remain above 50%. So, either they will be buying or SIRI will start the buy backs. In fact, I would not be surprised if they bought the shares back directly from the Bond Holders upon conversion. In the buy back statement the ability to buy back through direct private deals was stated. What a perfect time to do just that. As far as your "short term" decision. I think you are on the wrong side short term, no doubt, as in Friday and today. Now the CC is always a wild card. We can pop and drop or we can pop and run a bit or we can drop. Either way your call for 2.90s before a pop was wrong. Why, because the pop has already happened, its over, on to your NEXT prediction.
    One more thing on the converts. It has been assumed that many of those bond holders hedged with short positions. They will cover those shorts upon conversion. That will add buying pressure.

  4. #4
    denco1 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    One more thing on the converts. It has been assumed that many of those bond holders hedged with short positions. They will cover those shorts upon conversion. That will add buying pressure.

    If we happen to get taken down on this "short term" EDIT - after this nice "short term" POP we had - it will be a nice buying op to add to my positon.

  5. #5
    MLSiri is offline
    Here's some more food for thought: I just remembered the conditional requirements under which the convertible debt is included in diluted EPS. If the share price is above $1.87 pr share, or the point at which the note holders break even and would realize a gain if converted, then the convertible debt must be included in the fully diluted EPS calculation. And, if it's below $1.87, then it isn't included.

    So, since the SP is now well above this threshold, the convertible debt has been included in the outstanding share count since the SP has been above $1.87, and there would be no hit to the EPS that hasn't already been there in past quarterly reports (i.e., it's already baked into the current share price)! The negative reaction will only occur if the market doesn't understand this accounting reporting requirement and views this as a short-term headwind.

    And, as denco and pgourley have already noted, the elimination of toxic debt and the associated short hedging can only be viewed as a very positive longer-term development.

    BTW - what about MJNA!!!

    BTW 2 - The 49ers spotted the Ravens 21 points and were just a two-point conversion away from completing the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Was a very nice season!

  6. #6
    radejs is offline
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    RE:MJNA- I read somewhere this weekend there was talk of a FEDERAL medical Marijuana bill on Friday and THAT is what started this rally. Looking for a dip to buy more, may not see it for a day or two, but we will see.

    Superbowl- Good game, was hoping for the Niners, Lewis just annoys me with all his preaching coming from the mouth of a murderer.

    SIRI- I THINK we will have some good surprises in the CC tomorrow, just my gut, new management and new visions to excite the street.

  7. #7
    nytimbo58 is offline
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    RE.MJNA Would like to initiate small position on any drop. But unfortunately neither of my brokers, TD & Interactive Brokers, will allow trading in this security.

  8. #8
    imromo24 is offline
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    Thanks for the info on the convert. Its been stated that the shorts won't have to cover because they will take the shares through conversion, eliminating a possibly baked in squeeze.

    Any way...straight down at the open, at least for 1 hour 13 minutes I was correct lol

    way to go San Fran...I have to say I was hoping for a tie, I hate Baltimore and the steelers are the only team with 6 trophies, san fran would have tied us so it was tough to watch. LOVED the blackout to kill momentum, no Ray lewis pun intended

  9. #9
    denco1 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    Thanks for the info on the convert. Its been stated that the shorts won't have to cover because they will take the shares through conversion, eliminating a possibly baked in squeeze.

    Any way...straight down at the open, at least for 1 hour 13 minutes I was correct lol

    way to go San Fran...I have to say I was hoping for a tie, I hate Baltimore and the steelers are the only team with 6 trophies, san fran would have tied us so it was tough to watch. LOVED the blackout to kill momentum, no Ray lewis pun intended)
    Come on IMR24. You can't be serious. You should have bought at 3.10 ish and sold today at 3.22 to 3.25. That "short term" call is over. Now with a soft market, sure we are red today. The CC will tell the next "short term" tale. Rember, you called the takedown from 3.18 to 3.14 late Thursday EDIT- on low volume - a "CRASH". From that perspective, the pop on Friday was the "mother of all short squeezes"

    EDIT: I guess with the LOL...you're not....serious, that is....
    Last edited by denco1; 02-04-2013 at 10:57 AM.

  10. #10
    Redcloud is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    Come on IMR24. You can't be serious. You should have bought at 3.10 ish and sold today at 3.22 to 3.25. That "short term" call is over. Now with a soft market, sure we are red today. The CC will tell the next "short term" tale. Rember, you called the takedown from 3.18 to 3.14 late Thursday EDIT- on low volume - a "CRASH". From that perspective, the pop on Friday was the "mother of all short squeezes"

    EDIT: I guess with the LOL...you're not....serious, that is....
    Ya'll are making me laugh Hope everyone has a great day!!!
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

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