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Thread: Friday 1.18.13 Give me Liberty......

  1. #31
    imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524

  2. #32
    Redcloud is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by radejs View Post
    If Liberty stops buying, what happens to the stock price?????

    They HAVE been buying at 3.15 per Dow Jones/Reuters article above
    Liberty owns over half the company. Imo, when the buyback starts, they are in essence, still buying?( with a long way to go at that) I see them buying back at the prices they choose, keeping the MM's and shorties in check, all the while receiving a premium for the shares they bought at a depreciated price. We buy back from them to keep their % the same. When you own approx. 3 billion shares, why would you want the price to go down just to get a bargain when you could make approx. $30,000,000 per penny of movement in the upward direction, how much money would you save getting it at $3.00 compared to $3.16? To start off with they would be would be $480,000,000,000 480 MIL in the hole from where they started to begin with
    (30,000,000 x -16 cent=-480,000,000,000) I mean what if they bought another 50 million at $3.00, 50 mil x 16 cent = 8 miilion. What kind of bargain would that be? Loose 480 mil verses saving 8 mil. Unless someone thinks Liberty is the shortie? I'm calling some Hogwash!!!

    @ Rad,

    Quote, 1-17-13 "The farther out on your chart you go, the less clarity, imo, We break 3.16 tomorrow, and I'm calling $3.16 close. It's gonna be a good Friday, imo. Gla

    I have a new indicator, and I feel tomorrow is gonna be interesting,imo."

    Guess I won the Call the Close for the day!!! Gl Bro
    Last edited by Redcloud; 01-18-2013 at 06:44 PM.
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

  3. #33
    siriusly_invested is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    There is likely plenty of time. I sold half of my SIRI last spring and invested it into Liberty. Liberty just did a spin from Starz, so I wound up with a bunch of STARZA shares. I sold those the day of the spin and still hold Liberty (LMCAD).

    There is no guarantee about how Liberty may act, but we do know that Liberty has stated that it wants to get back the $1.7 billion it invested into buying common shares to go above 50%. Liberty will get about $1 billion in the already announced share buy-back of $2 billion. That means that Liberty will still have about $700 million in high basis shares that it will want to extract. That means that another buyback of about $1.4 billion will need to happen. That could be 18 months to 2 years away.

    After Liberty extracts that money it will likely want to do a Reverse Morris Trust (RMT). This gives liberty a tax friendly way to realize the huge gains on the original 40% that it got for a meager $12,500. Right now those gains are about $7 billion.

    In order to do an RMT Liberty will need to merge a bigger company into the smaller SIRI. With the Liberty stake over 50% this can happen. In an RMT the Liberty shareholders would get shares of SIRI and the company would once again be a company without a major shareholder.

    My opinion is that Liberty will keep SIRI levered (in debt) at about 4 to 1 of EBITDA, having SIRI borrow money if necessary to buy back shares.
    Thanks Spencer (I think). This picture is starting to finally soak in, slowly and painfully. Seems someone made reference to a Malone talk in which he implied it could be a couple years before the RMT will execute. Hopefully, that leaves lots of space for this dog to run and to let us systematically decide how to make the best of it. I suppose if one wanted into LMCAD, it would be better to make that commitment sooner than later. I see it didn't move today, so apparently teh latest news failed to make a big impression.

  4. #34
    Redcloud is offline
    Denco it's about time for an update of your P&F, thanks in advance.


    Have a good weekend everyone!!!
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

  5. #35
    imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524
    Red cloud good call on the bounce and close, I missed seeing your 3.16 call on the close the first time! oops. I guess since Im out at 3.17 average I didn't look at 3.19 bounce but for a quick trade it would have worked well from 3.12 to 3.19, nice job!

    I am looking farther out, true, and have buys in all the way down. I reevaluate every day.

    edit: shoot, I reevaluate every minute from premarket to after hours!

  6. #36
    Redcloud is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    Red cloud good call on the bounce and close, I missed seeing your 3.16 call on the close the first time! oops. I guess since Im out at 3.17 average I didn't look at 3.19 bounce but for a quick trade it would have worked well from 3.12 to 3.19, nice job!

    I am looking farther out, true, and have buys in all the way down. I reevaluate every day.

    edit: shoot, I reevaluate every minute from premarket to after hours!
    You and me both
    I sold $2.17's the other day and bought back last night AH's!!! Ya gotta love them $7.95 trades AH's with Fidelity, no extra fee's.
    Last edited by Redcloud; 01-18-2013 at 07:25 PM.
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

  7. #37
    siriusly_invested is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Redcloud View Post
    You and me both
    I sold $2.17's the other day and bought back last night AH's!!! Ya gotta like them $7.95 trades AH's with Fidelity, no extra fee's.
    My how times have changed. Seems only 4 or 5 years ago that my wife and I dumped our Fidelity accounts when we lost our argument against their $72 commissions. Apparently they have wised up since then.

    PS. I am totally sold on TD Ameritrade for reasons of their supurb customer service, their excellent suite of tools (charting, analysis, trading, etc.), and a fair commission rate which remains constant through any volume of trades and during all timeframes (PM, normal market hours, and AH) Correct me if I have overlooked something, but I fail to see useful tools at Fidelity.
    Last edited by siriusly_invested; 01-18-2013 at 07:30 PM.

  8. #38
    Redcloud is offline
    Alright IM ROMO, Looks like it's me and you brother, I'm out. Have a good weekend. Peace Out!!!
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

  9. #39
    blackops is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 112
    Quote Originally Posted by siriusly_invested View Post
    My how times have changed. Seems only 4 or 5 years ago that my wife and I dumped our Fidelity accounts when we lost our argument against their $72 commissions. Apparently they have wised up since then.

    PS. I am totally sold on TD Ameritrade for reasons of their supurb customer service, their excellent suite of tools (charting, analysis, trading, etc.), and a fair commission rate which remains constant through any volume of trades and during all timeframes (PM, normal market hours, and AH) Correct me if I have overlooked something, but I fail to see useful tools at Fidelity.
    Yes tdameritrade kicks butt!

  10. #40
    Redcloud is offline
    I was just talking about the trade fee with Fidelity, I got Etrade too. I'm sure different platforms all have their own perks...
    Suck Eggs Shorty!!!

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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