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Thread: Market Watch -January 2013

  1. #41
    mcoulter is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limit5Bass View Post
    Here's a symmetrical triangle pattern for Deckers that I threw a little coin at. I'm playing the rebound to the top and anticipating an upwards breakout out of the triangle based on the volume patterns. Breakouts always need confirmation though. DYODD

    Attachment 734
    5% drop on DECK today Limit - any thoughts?

  2. #42
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Morgan Stanley said they see a six to one upside to their case of $714 per share for Apple versus the downside to their bear case of $450 per share.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  3. #43
    radejs is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Morgan Stanley said they see a six to one upside to their case of $714 per share for Apple versus the downside to their bear case of $450 per share.
    Yeah, I have no analytical tools but my gut and brain say upside much greater than down, AND they pay a nice dividend. Family VERY happy today with what will likely be 5% gain in one day. I do see many more up days than down. Nextt week could be interesting. I feel low expectations for the company with the media medieval bludgeoning of late, and expect a blowout report from the holiday quarter Wednesday. Hopefully nice run up to then. If we could just get a China Mobile announcement, look out, off to the races.

    Congrats to all who got in the last few days and even more to the longs from long ago.

  4. #44
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    I'm just kicking myself for not having cash to invest right now and I'm already way too Apple heavy in my portfolio.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  5. #45
    imromo24 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by siriusly_invested View Post
    Well, I guess AAPL is out of my league so I have to gloat about lesser priced equities such as Starbucks (SBUX) which has been very kind to me over time, and as of this morning I re-entered at $54 based on the following signals: First, note that the price has bounced off of the lower trend line again (after many previous such moves), and in so doing has entered the gap that lies between $53 and $54. Ironically, this action immediately follows the formation of a Golden Cross (50 dma ascending across the 200dma). Consequently, I decided that if I need any more encouragement than what I saw this morning, then likely I would never be in this game. Sure hope I am right again. Check it out in this chart of earlier this morning.

    EDIT: PS. I almost overlooked the formation of the ascending triangle which gives credence to the thought that we should see a breakout to the high side, especially in light of the afore-mentioned Golden Cross.
    looks more like you have a rising wedge pattern that has just been tested and broken to the downside and could result in bearish downtrend on a real breakout. see example here http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...s:rising_wedge

  6. #46
    imromo24 is offline
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    This is just a VERY general statement when investing based on charts. You want to look for patterns that are going down during an uptrend. Those are consolidation patterns and when they break to the upside they have the best return.

    Another pattern during an uptrend is a channel. That has a tendency to break downward also but is a good bull sign if the company is strong.

    You do want to buy either at a breakout up, or on the retest a few days later, but buying into an uptrend, that looks like the stock is overextending can be costly.

    good luck!

  7. #47
    Limit5Bass is offline
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    As I mentioned, I was playing DECK to the top of the triangle where I sold half of my position. I am still holding the other half though in anticipation of an upwards breakout out of the triangle....today looked like a retracement day after yesterday's strong move.

    even though based on my analysis the breakout appears it will be to the upside, the least riskiest play is to wait for confirmation of the breakout since the breakout can be to either the upside or the downside. The reason I held onto 1/2 my position before the actual breakout ocurrs is only because I was able to lock in some gains from the move to the top of the triangle. If I had not done that, I would be waiting for a breakout to ocurr to take some of the risk out of the equation before making a purchase.

    I also attached a chart of the bigger picture for DECK - this symmetrical triangle is coming after a long downtrend....when symmetrical triangles come after long downtrends, statistically they act as reversal patterns more times than as a continuation pattern.
    DECK 2013-01-16.jpgDECK 2013-01-16.jpg
    Quote Originally Posted by mcoulter View Post
    5% drop on DECK today Limit - any thoughts?
    Last edited by Limit5Bass; 01-17-2013 at 01:00 AM.

  8. #48
    yoda4x4 is offline
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    What do you guys think of NLY? I'm taking a peek at it and it's starting to interest me. The 25 day sma is about to cross the 50 after a pretty good drop that started in Sept. Additionally, the stock provides for a 12+% divy to keep you on board while the stock rebounds. Anyone have any thoughts about NLY?

    David

  9. #49
    Limit5Bass is offline
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    DECK is just about at the bottom of its symmetrical triangle again. the last 2 days while moving down came on higher than expected volume.....which included some heavy selling at the end of the day today. a key tomorrow will be if it can hold the triangle line.
    DECK 2013-01-17.jpg

  10. #50
    radejs is offline
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    A few times I have mentioned ONVO. It has had a HUGE breakout with high volume this week. Putting all my other stocks to shame. I am not sure I would get in at this level, but after it consolidates, think hard. This stock could be big. I read a recent article talking about them doing some warrants and other things to get it assets up to the level to get on the NASDAQ from OTC. Money appears to be flowing in, lots of buying. I noticed at the end of the day yesterday a few nice 8-10 cent swings that could be taken advantage of.

    EDIT- up another 10% this AM to $4.73, out of control, was $2.25 at Christmas. Holy Crap!
    Last edited by radejs; 01-18-2013 at 10:46 AM.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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