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Thread: might be cynical or.....

  1. #21
    zcurzan is offline
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    You use the debt of Sirius as evidence that Stern hasn't paid for himself? Interesting... Aside from the fact that Stern and Sirius do not operate in a vacuum. Whether Stern operates at break-even, or is profitable is irrelevant when it comes to explaining the debt on the books. You do know that there are other aspects of the business, right?

    Oh wait, I think I follow your logic. Howard Stern drew subscribers. And subscribers aren't going to pay Sirius (XM) out of the kindness of their hearts, which means they are going to want some kind of service in return. Shit, that means we have to launch a constellation of satellites and actually provide some kind of way for them to listen to him. Wait, wait wait... so you mean Stern made us spend billions of dollars on infrastructure?

    Holy shit guys! Not only is Stern not operating at a profit, he's not even running at break even! Problem solved. If we fire him we won't even need to build, launch, or maintain a constellation of satellites to begin with. Why didn't Mel think of this before?

    Incremental cash flows, read a book.
    Last edited by zcurzan; 08-06-2008 at 02:21 PM.

  2. #22
    john is offline
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    JasonL, I not only believe in Mel I believe in the satellite radio sector. I was invested in it way before Mel came to it. I believe in the satellite radio sector as much as I believe in the satellite TV sector. I heard the same things said then as I hear now about radio. I stuck it out, through it all, as I saw my relatively small investment double, trible, ect., ect., ect., ect., and get me enough to retire on. So after having that happen to me, please forgive me for being optimistic about this sector. The fact is I see more potential here then I did in satellite TV. By the way I heard the same things like there is to much competetion, it is to costly to maintain satellites, They have to much debt., they will be bankrupt before they can make it. ect., ect., ect. The only thing I can say is, thank god I held on, while alot of others drop by the wayside. I suggest you just sell the rest of your holdings, if you have that much trouble in believing in a sector, or the CEO of that sector. I will still stick it out though.

  3. #23
    JasonL is offline
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    Hahahaha you guys are fun

    and a few of us smart asses, but i love it.
    Hey man, don't beat up on me
    Im just trying to keep the cynical balance of this thread going.
    Hey guys seriously, you all know more about SIRIUS and history of much more than I do. Hell im new to the stock market as well. Im young and dumb, but I do know media, and I do know technology and popular demand more than anything in business, and I know where its going and whats on the horizon. That I do study up on. And I know, maybe due to their diversely accrued dept, from many sources might I add, that a big change will be needed, a change in their reception technology, possibly broaden audience and availability, to keep up with the big boys on the media block.
    Yes, they now stand alone in their respective satellite sector, but thats not an immediate victory.
    2009 is the year, so we will see what they do with this upcoming positive cash flow.
    I may be pissy and cynical, but I still have hope left. And I also wont just immediately jump on some happy wagon when the stock is at an all time low.
    John no need to rush me on a sale, Im in for now, hell what do I have to lose at the bottom.
    -J

  4. #24
    spanyo is offline
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    This argument will seem silly in less than a year. (Hopefully much less than a year.)
    Last edited by spanyo; 10-05-2008 at 02:17 PM.

  5. #25
    Greenland is offline
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    Cool " Cool Change "

    Hi guys. If Sirius XM stock was a song, it would be "Cool Change" by the Little River Band.
    " if there's one thing in my life that's missing,
    it's the time that i spend alone,
    sailing on the blue and bright clear water "

    This is exactly what the stocks are doing. There taking a break, cooling off, and getting ready for next year. I'm very new to investing, but I knew about satellite radio ten years ago. SRadio is a future gift that's available today. "Kids" aren't ready for it yet. Kids move technology, not adults. Remember a website called Napster? Everybody and their brother was downloading music, for free. The keyword here is downloading, to computers, phones, and then later an Ipod. Take ten random kids from high school and five will either have an ipod or cell phone with downloaded songs that they want to listen to now, not a SRadio device where they have to wait for their song in anticipation. They're not ready for it , and you can ask them and they'll say its lame. Now a HUGE part of this problem is Sirius and Xm's fault. What is the ratio of commercials for Ipods/Cellphones versus SRadio ? Yeah. Marketing/Advertising staff should have been fired along time ago and Howard Stern is not Tiger Woods. Stern is awesome, but the contract only catered to his followers and maybe a few more, and mostly U.S. americans. Tiger is known in about 150 countries out of the 200 plus in the world. Thats a network. Point being , what the hell did he get that big of contract for ? At least half could've went to advertising or marketing and this very low stock fall would have never happened. The merger is fine, but damn , both these companies messed up. Spend money to make money right ? But to invest it in Howard Stern, nope. If he were gone tomorrow, well hey , if i wanna laugh, i have 10 channels of comedy to listen to. Either way, I'm just here to say SiriusXm is a very big part of our future. Haven't you noticed that everything sucks right now-music, economy, politics, fat people in America, Atlanta Braves, etc, etc. What is good for us is SRadio will have service in cell phones in a few years(Mitsubishi already has one model), can you even imagine how many subscribers that will draw ? Damn. Sorry about the vent guys, just wanted to say Sirius and XM , bad ,bad marketing job. I would at least like to see one , just one, bumper sticker that read, " Get Sirius ! " , but i guess pocket money like that they have to give to Stern.

    oh yeah , knowing technology means you see what's hot and not. Napster and computers were hot ten years ago, ipods five years ago, that means don't invest in SRadio when it first comes out and expect to make a fortune. Knowing damn well ipods and downloading music is the big thing for the last five years. The stock is what, 2 1/2 times as less then when you bought it. I've been watching both of these stocks for the last four years and just making sure the stock price never got to high for me to purchase. Patience. This merger was the best thing for me, I finally bought into Sirius stocks at 1.60. Call me lucky, or call me someone who watches technology and knows when to buy. lol ! Sorry for your losses, but the long haulers you know what's up, keep on hauling, we're all gonna get paid, Big Time ! Ipods can't get any better, not until they offer SRadio. Later guys !

  6. #26
    zcurzan is offline
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    I don't get people who keep trying to draw parallels between the iPod and satellite radio, specifically in reference to the teenagers.

    1.) Teens are not the target audience of a premium music service such as satellite radio. The majority of them are more than happy with whats playing on terrestrial radio, its all they know. They also do not have disposible income. Many do not own cars, and of those that do, few own brand new cars loaded with accessories.

    2.) Asking where the satellite radio hand helds are to compete with the iPod is missing the point. Before the iPod, when was the last time you saw someone walking around with a portable radio? It was always a tape player, or a CD player. (not always but I think you can see the point I am making here). Radio is all forms is largely a in car form of entertainment, and secondarily an in home form. And in a distant third, barely finishing the race, as a outdoor personal portable form of entertainment.

    I agree the key to future success is good marketing, but if you are waiting for the "kids to be ready for it", don't hold your breath.

  7. #27
    Sirius_Stern_Fan is offline
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    I don't understand

    all of this Howard Stern bashing. Admittedly I am a huge fan, but even if I wasn't, I wouldn't say he is a detriment to the satellite radio industry. He has been the catalyst which propelled Sirius to a position in which they could compete with XM. Just look at the numbers. They speak for themselves.

  8. #28
    Greenland is offline
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    Zcurzan and Stern fan

    Hi guys !

    Mr.Z i see your point, i was just venting as you can see. I guess the main point i was trying make was the marketing/advertising strategy they had. thanks for reading it also, it was little bit long. later !


    Stern Fan, i love Howard too , i just think he still could have made millions on a smaller contract with maybe some bonuses at the end of the quarters. Again just my views on marketing/advertising these two companies have, which is not much. thanks for reading it though !

    later !

  9. #29
    JasonL is offline
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    Good point Greenland

    I agree with you Greenland, Stern does obviously bring in subscribers, but his contract is ridiculous, he definitely does not live up to that contract.

  10. #30
    Sirius_Stern_Fan is offline
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    I know this is a bit late, but I can't believe that you think Howard isn't living up to his contract.

    500 Mil for the entire costs for the ENTIRE show. For 5 years. Plus a bonus of 225 Mil to Howard.

    That's 150 Mil per year. Or 1.25 Mil per month. At a subscription cost of $12.95 a month that is only 965251 subscribers needed to break even. Round that up to about 1.5 Mil subs to cover extra's and the $6.95 2nd sub price and look at the subscriber jump after he came to Sirius. Over 6 Mil subs since Howard came to Sirius. You can't tell me that at least 1.5 Mil haven't been due to him directly.

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