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Thread: Show Me Don't Tell Me Debate

  1. #1
    TSavery is offline
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    Show Me Don't Tell Me Debate

    So, who is right, and which points make sense? Should shares be bought back at these prices, or is the money needed by the company elsewhere at this time?
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  2. #2
    Dlite is offline
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    There should be no share buybacks until the company is cash flow positive and paid down some of the debt, period. As I said in response to your post, Mel or other insiders buying shares at these prices would go a long way and would help put to rest some of the BK rumors.

    Overall, especially in the next couple weeks, the merged company needs more transparency into their future plans -- and I don't mean with town hall meetings or appearances on satrad programming -- but with press releases to the street. Given the PPS, drastic action needs to be taken, which I hope will take place on Thursday's call.

  3. #3
    pkmcro is offline
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    Honestly...
    I think you hit a good point, that the market needs some confidence and that means that either SiriusXM needs to buy back shares, or executives need to buy shares.

    Honestly, a company that is not cash flow positive should not be buying back shares. While this would be one approach that would build confidence, I do not think that the company should be borrowing money to buy back shares, which in essence would be the case.

    However.....
    Mel and rest of the SIRIXM executives need to step up to the plate and buy shares in this company on the open market. I am not talking about a lollipop buy. I am talking like 20 million shares or more for Mel, and large amounts from other executives. Nothing boosts confidence like a CEO and execs buying a lot of shares.

    Mel could really put his money where his mouth is, and declare that he will take a $1 paycheck until SIRIXM have a full year of being cash flow positive, or maybe atleast a paycut.

    And finally he should encourage the employees of both companies to buy stock and take a vested interest. I don't know if the company has a match policy. But there should be a one time match policy of 10 or 20%. Let's get everyone aboard and make all people involved shareholders.

  4. #4
    Dlite is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by pkmcro View Post
    Mel could really put his money where his mouth is, and declare that he will take a $1 paycheck until SIRIXM have a full year of being cash flow positive, or maybe atleast a paycut.
    I wouldn't go as far as $1 (and probably neither would he), but a significant paycut is in order. If he is drinking his own kool aid, then he'll know the long-term sacrifice is worth his while.

  5. #5
    john is offline
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    This is what I think and said before on the main site.


    crfceo, If you have read the debate, I was having with Charles a poll does not make somebody right the facts do. It so happens Tyler has the facts on his side. Come on a company losing money left and right, is going to buy shares back, that makes sense right. The street would see right through that scam.

    spanyo, SiriusInvestor, What are we a communist state were the majority can tell a person how to spent his money. I do think you are right to a certain point though. If Mel has that much confedence in SIRI XM then why is he not buying at this price. Maybe it is because most of his (and many others) pay comes in the form of company stock already. You ever heard of an old saying, “dont put all your eggs in one basket”.

    Tyler, you are right, it would be foolish to buy back stock with money the company A.) needs for other things, and B.) doesn’t really have anyway.

    What we are seeing now is people that are mad. Many of them got in for the merger to make a quick buck and now found out there is no pop and no quick buck to be had. I have to say as a true long, I always expected to be here with most of my shares for long after the merger. So I am not worried were the price gos for now. As for the promises of FCF positive being made things changed. I believe if the merger was never anounced SIRI at least would have been there this year for the whole year. They already had 1/2 of 2007 FCF positive (and that was with their hands being tied by the merger for most of the year). When I look at this company I look at a 3 to 5 year time frame. Something I think these short term longs should start getting used to. I got news for them the next 6 months is not going to be easy ether. They will have low Net adds in the 3rd quarter as they usaually do. Even the usaully good and improving 3rd quarter metrics will not be that good this time due to the merger cost now being added in (severance, and ect.). The street knows this will be why, but something tells me they will put a negitive spin on it. Until the 4th quarter report is out we will not see any factual good news (al la cart out for the first full quarter). Then we get out of this dumper not just because of the 4th quarter but because of the interoperable radios will be coming out. Everyone knows that will be the real driver of net additions and ARPU (I hope it is sooner, but who knows).
    Last edited by john; 08-02-2008 at 04:08 PM.

  6. #6
    crfceo is offline
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    But John...xm did just buy back some bonds. So the argument that the money is not there for buybacks is wrong. If they bought back stock, and the price goes up, the company becomes more valuable...wouldn't they then be able to restructure existing debt at better terms?

  7. #7
    john is offline
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    crfceo, First of all are you trying to double talk here are what? because this is what I get from that; I want to go more in debt so I can be less in debt. Second the street is not going to buying what SIRIXM would be selling. The small amount that it would go up would be eaten up by shorts knowing what is going on.

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