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Thread: Could this price drop be by design?

  1. #21
    john is offline
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    Newman, are you Brian R at Seeking Alpha? I always thought you were Newman there to.

  2. #22
    Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    I have multiple personalities, depending on which is saved on the computer I am posting from at the time...

    I am also Brian R. on the comments section here at SiriusBuzz and Orbitcast, but Newman again on Orbitcast boards. . boards I am Newman (I think), but I dont visit there much, because it is pretty much just people reposting articles from here with no discussion.
    Last edited by Newman; 07-28-2008 at 09:21 PM.

  3. #23
    deewcom is offline
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    Margin Calls Will Affect SP

    I brought up the issue of Margin Calls and some people have called me out like I'm the only guy who ever farted in church. The point I was pressing is that there are likely many thousands of investors who will see a fat margin call tomorrow morning. Many will sell (dump) stock to cover it. Makes no difference whether you feel sorry for them or not. This phenomenon will add to the downward pressure on an already abysmal SP. The impact on SP will not be as significant as the continued shorting of the 150 or 375 million shares (?) that the big boys were loaned to short. Obviously they have many millions of shares left to continue shorting (for the next several days at today's rate) before they shoot their entire load. I'd guess that they shorted 50 million shares today. Did you see the last second go from 192 to 188? That was effing brutal.

  4. #24
    JasonL is offline
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    I couldn't agree more Homer

    After reading Homer's quote below, I absolutely, totally agree. I haven't heard it said more true and accurate, and without all the candy coating. I'm an 'investor in training' so to speak, haven't been investing long, but long enough to smell a stink.
    Makes me think twice where I decide to put some money next time. Live and learn. But Im gonna ride this mess out, then grab whats left and run far away.
    It's good to read what my feelings were telling me.
    Damn crooks.
    Thanks for the insite Homer

    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    Here's the part I missed... I saw it, but it just didn't click...

    So the underwriters/banks (UBS and Morgan Stanley) are taking possession of the loaned shares from Sirius (for a fee) -- and they're buying an equivolent number of their own LONG shares on the open market too. But then the banks will lend the Sirius loaned shares out to the interested hedge funds, who will buy the debt and short the shares.

    The hedge funds buy the Notes from Sirius, but then hedge the investment by shorting against them... and of course, that short is on margin, so the banks get a fee from the hedge funds.

    It's a win-win situation for the hedge funds and underwriters.


    Also interesting here... UBS and Morgan Stanley will be taking "long positions" in Sirius, as part of this deal. Hmmm, how low will they let this go before UBS/Morgan Stanley decide to start taking their long position??? Seems to me, the lower it goes before they buy 150+ million shares, the better off they'll be...

    You see, the hedge funds are going to short $375 million worth of Sirius -- if those shares price at $2/each... that is 187 million shares. Which the banks agreed to buying an equivolent amount of. Wouldn't it make sense for the banks to start buying at $1.75 and below?

    187 million shares at $1.75, is a hell of a lot cheaper than buying them above $2.

    ...the rich get richer, the fat get fatter... the poor retail investors get their ass handed to them.


  5. #25
    seraphim77 is offline
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    163888, so are you saying you don't think the stock price drop was by design?

  6. #26
    john is offline
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    deewcom, First most of those would have cleared out the first time. As I said before I think it was a good thing that the stock was below 2 for over 5 days instead of just above the 2 dollar mark, because it took out, the what I would call weak money and short longs. The people that were in the margin would have sold and because you could not use margin to buy under 2 dollars then those people would have been replaced by people that are (maybe) more fresh to the stock and do not have to worry to much about high interest rates from margins. They would be willing to stay in longer.

    seraphim77, I think it was what Mel had to do to finance the deal due to the credit that was avalible to him. I can say this with certainty, if there is one thing Mel does not like more then share dilution, is the stock price of the company he is running going down. I believe if there was a better way to finance this deal Mel would have taken it. The fact is there are and were few things Mel could have done, and he took the less painful and costly one.

    Its common sense guys, Mel does not want to hurt his own company. He is also been known to be a genus in this area. I dont second guess him.
    Last edited by john; 07-29-2008 at 02:07 AM. Reason: add

  7. #27
    hartleib1 is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 135
    Keep the faith John, as I have lost mine. I know what this co. tried to do to their shareholders in Supreme cout in NY and it was criminal. I hope you are right but I will have to see it to believe it.

  8. #28
    john is offline
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    Michael, as you know I thanked you for that. The fact is, you do not know that it was some big conspiracy cooked up by SIRI. I believe (IMO) it was more of a conspiracy cooked up by Brockwell and his law firm to do what they have done many times over before to other companies. The fact is SIRI was going to do what almost every company does, settle. That is not to say it would have not help SIRI, because it would have. Brookwell had every right to try, but I am glad you helped to stop it. Mike you may have lost it, but I think you will get it back

  9. #29
    deewcom is offline
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    Margin Calls Kick In Hard

    Many customers today saw giant margin calls posted to their accounts. This happened when marginable XMSR shares were converted to non-marginable SIRI shares. This action is occuring concurrent with short selling by MM's creating a (cough!) downward trend. Perhaps SIRI SP will turn around when all the poor b*stards eventually lose all their shares as they are sold off to cover margin calls. Obviously, the investors who can cover their margins and can control their accounts will be able to retain SIRI in their portfolios by sending a check (cough!) or by selling other securities in their accounts. I hope this bloodbath is over soon, b/c it is making everyone nervous. I wonder if Mel is nervous. Maybe he's rich enough not to care.

  10. #30
    john is offline
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    deewcom, I said this before:

    Jul 30 12:05 PM
    By the way, I do feel bad for the people that owned XMSR with margin money, that are now stuck in the margin. I hate to say it, but remember what I said before about the SIRI down turn be ready again because it may happen again this time because people that had XMSR thought they were not going to have to deal with that problem but are now going to have to deal with it.

    That does not change the fact that they are the ones that bought with margin money. They still only have themselves to blame. As for the stock price going down it will come back The true longs are not to worried about that.

    I said this also:

    Jul 30 01:36 PM
    As to the stock price. I think it is a combination of things, That as you mention just before, but also people that just want out, that thought they would make a bundle in a year, and now this margin thing again. Plus people playing with the stock. I think all this will pass in a little time. Then the stock will have a rise. I believe Mel and the board will wait for some time, to see what plays out on the stock price, before they decide on a reverse split. IMO there will be no need, but I will know more after I see what the stock is at after a week. That will let all stock problems work themselves out and then an up turn. Mel will wait longer at least a few months. Lets not forget about CPST (I am sure Cramer fans know this one) it went from 6 to under a dollar and took a year to get back to the 3,4 dollar range. There are other examples but I think most know about CPST.

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