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Thread: DGL and GOLD

  1. #71
    Havakasha is offline
    Peter Schiff is Wrong __ James Turk is Wrong

    Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital newsletter from April of 2009 stands out as especially revealing. That newsletter clearly demonstrates just how far off the proponents of the Austrian school are on understanding inflation and hyperinflation. The newsletter featured a guest article written a month earlier by James Turk entitled "On the Cusp of Hyperinflation". [James Turk is the author of The Collapse of the Dollar and the founder of goldmoney.com.] In this March 2009 article, James Turk enumerated 6 reasons for his predicting that "hyperinflation of the US dollar is imminent" and also said "[the US dollar] is on the cusp of hyperinflation. I expect this to become increasingly clear within twelve months." Of course this hyperinflation prediction has proven to be wildly off the mark. Average consumer price inflation by any measure has registered in the low to mid single digits in the 2½ years since. Nevertheless, in September of 2010, eighteen months after his 'hyperinflation within a year' prediction, Turk unapologetically published another such prediction, in which he hyperlinked to his original prediction. Though no doubt he is sincere, James Turk is dead wrong. It will be interesting to see for how many more years James Turk and Peter Schiff, et al, will continue to reiterate these runaway inflation predictions that will completely fail to materialize.


    Austrian Economics is Wrong

    This, folks, is your fair warning: Peter Schiff, James Turk, John Williams, Marc Faber, Charles Goyette and others will surely continue ad nauseum with their predictions of runaway inflation in the dollar but consumer prices simply aren't going to cooperate with them. Sooner or later these pundits will have to face the reality of radically lower consumer price inflation than they predict. Eventually their predictions will lose all credibility. These guys really don't understand economics holistically—especially the factors affecting why people raise prices. Yes, I say factors (plural), as Milton Friedman's famous quote, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is simply wrong. And I say people, as the Austrian school simply views consumer prices as inextricably linked to the money supply, as if little else matters, such as people's perceptions, and people's propensities for taking pricing action (or no action). You just can't have a viable price inflation model that completely removes human behavior from the equation. Sorry Milton.

    Monetary Inflation is not the same as Price Inflation!

    Indeed, the Monetarists and the Austrians believe that inflation of prices is simply an automatic manifestation of overly abundant money. Money supply and prices are supposedly inextricably linked by mathematics, such as in the equation known as the Quantity Theory of Money. To be sure, you'll see the Quantity Theory of Money in every Economics textbook, expressed as some variant of P(k)=MV. [Read this equation as: "the general price level (P) is proportional to the size of the money supply (M) times the velocity of money (V)."] In other words, according to the Quantity Theory, if you increase the money supply by say, 25%, while holding its velocity constant, then prices on average must also rise 25% in order to maintain a supposed equilibrium. As neat and orderly as this theory assumes the economic universe to be, it is simply not true. It is but a theory.

    It's funny, Sigmund Freud's theory that every man has a secret desire to sleep with his mother appears in every Psychology textbook, yet few people would actually believe it. So why is it that so many believe so unquestioningly in the Quantity Theory? Its empirical supporting evidence is inconclusive at best, while more importantly, via thought experiment I can in fact prove that P(k)=MV cannot even remotely represent a full accounting of what governs prices. That is not to say that increasing the money supply cannot raise prices; rather, increasing the money supply may raise prices, but probably not by so much.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 05-18-2012 at 12:46 PM.

  2. #72
    Havakasha is offline
    Although Peter Schiff and certain Austrian economists talk a very convincing talk, they are dead wrong on several fronts. Their key tenets stem from faulty premises which they stubbornly refuse to reconsider. Their conclusions follow from simplistic and unrealistic half-truths. For example, consider the catchphrase, "You can't spend your way to prosperity." It is half-true, because for an individual, spending will indeed reduce rather than increase his/her own wealth. But for a whole economy it's a very different story. One consumer's spending is a zero-sum wealth transfer in terms of the whole (since the spending of one party is always revenue to another party). It’s a wash. Total spending equals total revenue (ignoring taxes & entitlements), and so as total spending goes up, total revenues go up in lockstep. Spending and revenues are really like two sides of the same coin.

    Consider that if all spending were to cease, then all revenues would also cease. No spending by anyone would mean no income for anyone, and then there would be no economy. Prosperity would of course be impossible. For the whole, then, consumer spending acts as essential to prosperity by enabling its flip side—income. And spending is also what entices further production. For example, a retailer may initially stock a certain amount of a product, but will not order any more of it until the product has been selling. Consumer buying is thus essential to support jobs in goods manufacturing. There is no question that consumer spending's flip side is revenue (income) and that consumer spending also boosts both production and employment. So why does a guy like Peter Schiff keep saying that consumer spending is bad for the economy and that investing/saving is good?

    Saving rather than spending is good for the individual, yes, but people parking money in savings is detrimental stagnation for the economy as a whole. (These pundits fail to see such distinctions.) It's no coincidence that since the 2008 crises, just as we've had the weakest economy in generations, record amounts of cash have been idly 'sitting on the sidelines' on corporate balance sheets, in bank reserves, and in Americans' portfolios.
    http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/
    Austrian economics is enjoying so much resurgence these days that Mises and Hayek are actually now on the lips of several candidates in the 2012 election cycle. But don't be fooled. Austrian economics misleads because it is based upon plausible-sounding half-truths. Bottom line: the overwhelmingly likely future inflation scenario is that average consumer prices will continue to rise only in the single digits for many years to come. This is despite trillions of 'money printing' by the Fed being quite likely. I personally think it's even highly probable that consumer prices will average low single digit inflation, i.e. below 5.5%, over the next 5 years and beyond. That would mean, on average, goods and services will cost at the most about one third more than they do today by November of 2016. Copy the URL for my website into your google calendar a year or two out as a reminder to check back for new articles and updates—I'll see you then!

  3. #73

  4. #74
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    Mr. SiriuslyWrong and Juvenile returns and is unable to respond to all the FACTUAL evidence I provided on Mr. Schiff.

    Blind faith for his CULT leader.
    Blind faith for his CULT leader. You are so f'd up. Right here in this very thread I noted that I dismissed his "predictions", and you have the balls of styrofoam to think he's my cult leader.

    Here's the real situation. Slow down and read it. Every time I ask you to comment on the video, and you don't, you demonstrate what a true idiot you are. EVERY TIME. And it is genuinely humorous, yet confounding to me why you cannot and will not comment on it. It demonstrates precisely how zealous you are, and not in a good way.

    To make matters even more ridiculous for you. I've acknowledged that Schiff's predictions have been wrong multiple times, yet you continue to ask me to respond again and again further demonstrating what a true idiot you are. EVERY TIME. And it is genuinely humorous, but again, confounding. I demonstrates precisely how zealous you are, and not in a good way.

    So, to show anyone else who might read this what an idiot you are, what do you think of Schiff's comments at the 32 to 36 second mark?

  5. #75
    Havakasha is offline
    You refuse to acknowledge ALL the evidence i have presented for all those years. You continue to praise him. That is the problem.

    I keep commenting on the one "right" prediction he made and explain why he doesnt deserve the praise you give him and yet you repeatedly lie and say i havent commented on it. Silly game because you obviously dont want to address the totality of his predictions.


    I remember when you referred to his prediction that gold would go to $12,000 or the Dow to
    1,400 as "BOLD".

    That is a small and simple example of what i refer to as CULT worship.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 05-18-2012 at 01:26 PM.

  6. #76
    Havakasha is offline
    This is what i am referring to. Its very simple.
    Your anger and juvenile insults dont impress anyone.


    "In other words, Peter Schiff may be a classic case of a stopped clock: he's been predicting a market decline FOREVER and when the market has declined he's hailed as a genius by his cult fans."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1068...hiff-right-now


    and this:


    Schiff should not be getting the praise he is getting today for being "so right" after saying the same thing and being "so wrong" for the previous 5 years.

  7. #77
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    You refuse to acknowledge ALL the evidence i have presented for all those years. You continue to praise him. That is the problem.

    I keep commenting on the one "right" prediction he made and explain why he doesnt deserve the praise you give him and yet you repeatedly lie and say i havent commented on it. Silly game because you obviously dont want to address the totality of his predictions.


    I remember when you referred to his prediction that gold would go to $12,000 or the Dow to
    1,400 as "BOLD".

    That is a small and simple example of what i refer to as CULT worship.
    You say you're not on meds, but boy howdy do you need them.

    You haven't ONCE commented on him being right on the housing bubble and subsequent recession. You've commented on commenting on it LMFAO. You noted he was right, and I'll give you that, but why? What stands out in particular?

    Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

    As far as "anger" and "juvinile" insults go. Sorry, they are accurate assessments. You are genuinely an idiot living off your family's fortune.

    Here's the bottom line that you don't want to accept because of your highly partisan political nature. Schiff was indeed right on the housing bubble and the subsequent recession. You don't want to acknowledge that because it gives him credibilty. With credibility, your derision loses effect. It's all a political game with you. It's not about understanding his point of view - regardless if you agree or not. You don't want to because it flies in the face of your politics. And that further supports the conclusion that you're an idiot.

  8. #78
    Havakasha is offline
    You seem to have an obsession with meds, accountants,and anger towards people more successful and wealthier than you. What happened in your earlier life to cause such Anger and juvenile insults? You should use your time becoming better informed instead of such silliness.
    Remember you are the guy who claims to have a lot of economic knowledge and yet you didnt
    even know who Milton Friedman was. More homework and less nastiness would serve you well.

    And, oh by the way LIES dont equal "accurate assessments". But then you are a cult follower of
    peter schiff who has been proven to have lied quite often. Two peas in a pod.


    I have commented numerous times about his calls on the housing bubble and
    subsequent recession. You just dont want to acknowledge it.
    I just have a very different opinion about how those calls fit into his track record of always calling for economic catastrophe.


    You still havent given me one prediction that Mr. Schiff got right in all those years ( 1998,1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 1/2 of 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012) other than
    gold.

    HOW COME? I think we know.



    One persons "BOLD" is another persons " OBVIOUSLY WILDLY and IRRESPONSIBLY WRONG".
    Last edited by Havakasha; 05-18-2012 at 02:00 PM.

  9. #79
    Havakasha is offline
    STill waiting for one right prediction (besides gold) in all those years! I hope you are looking hard because i set the bar REALLY LOW.

  10. #80
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    STill waiting for one right prediction (besides gold) in all those years! I hope you are looking hard because i set the bar REALLY LOW.
    Here is a fair assessment of Schiff's predictions. Wait no longer.

    http://www.economicpredictions.org/p...ions/index.htm

    "To his credit most economists and experts ignored the signs until the markets crashed in summer of 2008.

    Two experts who warned about the economic crisis before Peter Schiff are

    Dean Baker's warning in July 21, 2005

    Med Jones' (US Economic Risks June, 2, 2006)."

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