Signs the Economy is Turning Around

[SiriuslyLong]

If you call this "incompetent", then you really are extreme in your political position, and disingenuous too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

You clearly missed the nuance in my comment.

[Havakasha]

I think he is either unemployed or a slacker.

I really think he doesnt read or else prefers to be ignorant of the facts.
NO other conclusion can be made when you read the facts on the entirety
of Mr. Schiffs career.

[Havakasha]

Its intellecutally disingenuous to only publish the same single prediction Mr. Schiff
got "right" in all the years of his career. if you look back you understand he has
basically been pushing the same doomsday scenarios for 20 years.
On ocassion he will get ONE right. MOST of the time he HAS gotten it wrong.
ITS JUST A FACT THAT YOU CANT REFUTE. The facts dont lie.

Once again some FACTS. I know its painful for you to read

Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

The Same Old Song

Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.


On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.

[Havakasha]

I understand you dont want to talk about the present economy because you and peter schiff said the U.S. was going to hell in a hand basket, and that ther was no possible way that President Obama'sstimulus package and other economic moves could have lead to any positive results.


03-07-2012, 01:23 AM #4

This thread is attempting to discuss what is happening with the economy now and into the future.
Please have the courtesy to start you own thread if you wish to talk about Mr. Schiff ancient past one "good" doomsday prediction, but be sure to include the many predictions where he has been wildly wrong. Just a quick reminder, Mr. Schiff predicted from before the year 2000 that the U.S. was going into a bear market for the next 10 years. He was completely wrong. All his predictions
concerning bonds, and bets on the dollar and other currencies were also wrong. His one correct bet was in gold. In other words he has a long standing habit of predicting doomsday scenarios for the U.S. and on rare occassions he gets it right (WAY more often he gets it WAY WRONG and those are the facts).
For example in more recent times (2010) he predicted that the Dow would fall to 1,400 or gold will rise to $12,000 within the next 3 years. During this same time and for years prior he has been predicting hyperinflation (yes, not just high inflation but HYPERINFLATION) Extreme predictions partially given to sell newsletters and derive publicity, and partly due to his extreme ideological beliefs (like SiriuslyWrong, his extra loyal follower he believes President Obama is a Marxist. 2 peas in a pod). Now back to our regularly scheduled program. Thanks

[Havakasha]

Since MR. SIriuslyinlovewithMr.Schiff want to turn this into a Mr. schiff debate have at it. Instead of being embarassed he actually seems to want to embrace what i have said all along about his passion for him. Sorry to do this to but he seem to be a glutton for punishment.

http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213

“...I Don't Think I've Been Wrong on Anything” THIS IS A PETER SCHIFF QUOTE AS I SAID EARLIER. NOT ONLY DOES HE GET SO MANY OF HIS ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS WRONG BUT HE HAS NEVER ADMITTED ANY OF HIS WILDLY WRONG PREDICTIONS. FACTS DONT LIE and he is clearly a LIAR.

May 14, 2010


Update May 18, 2010: I periodically get emails from Schiff disciples asking what do I think NOW about his great advice. Apparently many of these folks don't follow the performance of investments they aren't currently using because these folks seem to think that gold has beenhttp://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213 the place to be no matter what happens. One recent and good question was about Hartman and how his Schiff portfolio is doing "these days." The questioner seemed to be of the belief that Hartman would be much happier now with Schiff's picks to which I say, only if he is an ostrich with his head in the sand!

Since I interviewed Jason Hartman (see previous update below) in February, 2009, gold (Schiff's favorite investment for the supposed coming end of the U.S. dollar) was at about $1,000 per ounce. 15 months later now, gold is at about $1,200 an ounce, so it's up 20 percent since I spoke with Hartman. By contrast, U.S. stocks have rocketed higher and have had one of the best rallies ever. U.S. stocks, which Schiff said to shun, are up 70+ percent. So, stockpiling gold and staying out of stocks hasn't work so well for Schiff.

Schiff also said, "At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value." Wrong, wrong again on this one! I wrote in December, 2009 about how Schiff and a plethora of pundits were predicting the demise of the U.S. dollar in my piece, An Examination of the "Dire Circumstance" of the U.S. Dollar. The dollar is almost exactly where it was in early 2009! And, funny how the Euro crisis is now center-stage and folks are no longer talking about how weak the U.S. dollar is anymore.


Update February 23, 2009: I just got off the phone from doing a radio interview with Jason Hartman for his real estate and financial show. Early on, he asked me about various gurus and Peter Schiff's name quickly came up. Schiff he said had been a guest on his program in the past. Without missing a beat, Mr. Hartman proceeded to tell me how he invested $200,000 through Schiff's firm and now had just half of that left!



During the sharp and volatile stock market slide of 2008-09, Peter Schiff, who heads the brokerage firm, Euro Pacific Capital based in Darien, CT with five branch offices in California, Florida and Arizona, has frequently been on television, especially the cable channels including CNBC. Along with a growing chorus of others such as Nouriel Roubini, Barry Ritholtz, and Gary Shilling, Schiff is one of those guys now saying "I told you so" in reference to the recent economic and financial market problems.

Schiff's quote used for the headline of this article ("The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything") comes from an interview U.S. News & World Reports magazine did with Schiff in their May 30, 2008 issue. (In that piece, Schiff made a number of predictions I will get to in a moment.) The quote came from comments he made when discussing the supposed accuracy of his predictions over the past decade.

Peter Schiff began his career in the financial services world as a stockbroker, doing what I thought I wanted to do when I grew up. (I lost interest in the job once I learned about selling and working on commission). My dad used to take me to visit his broker at Merrill Lynch. Mind you, my dad was no high roller but he had begun handling some investments when he was laid off from his job as a mechanical engineer during the severe recession of 1973-74.

In watching and reading his interviews and in speaking with Schiff myself on February 12, 2009, I am struck by the forcefulness and certainty of his views and predictions. He doesn't hedge and as he did in the U.S News interview, he told me, "Pretty much everything is happening as I scripted it to happen with minor exceptions..."

Economic Background

When I asked Schiff what training and experiences he had to form his economic views and opinions, I asked if he was an economist or had any economics training. "I think I know more about economics than anyone with the title and I know more than anyone in government," he boasted, adding, "These other guys are witch doctors and I'm the real doctor."

As for when he developed his economic genius, Schiff told me, "I've always known this much -ever since I was a kid and my dad wrote a book called the Biggest Con: How the Government is Fleecing You, I understood capitalism and how it works. I read Ayn Rand and I read some of the Keynesian economics stuff and could see why those economists were all wrong."

Schiff's father, Irwin Schiff, is a long-term tax protestor who has written many books about the supposed illegality of the U.S. income tax system. Unfortunately the senior Irwin didn't read the section in my Taxes for Dummies about what happens to folks who refuse to pay their income taxes because they don't believe in the validity of our nation's tax laws. Sadly, Irwin Schiff, now in his 80s, has been convicted of numerous federal income tax crimes and is currently serving another lengthy prison term.

Interestingly, in the marketing copy for Irwin Schiff's book, The Biggest Con, it says of the book, "It will convince you that most American ‘economists' don't know what they are talking about - which is why this country is in such deep economic and financial trouble. It provides irrefutable proof of how the federal government has been continually undermining the American economy and forcing a lower standard of living on us all." This sounds a lot like the recent statements of his son Peter yet the father's book was published back in 1977! (You know the expression about the apple not falling far from the tree...)

Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

The Same Old Song

Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.

When asked, "Why don't you think soaring oil, grains, or commodities prices are the next bubble?" Schiff replied:

"These prices do not constitute bubbles. They simply constitute the repricing of goods to reflect the diminished value of our money. The way you can tell there's not a bubble is that these markets are clearing. People are buying food and eating it. They're buying gasoline and using it. Speculators aren't buying gasoline and warehousing it in big facilities because they think the price is going to go up." Schiff went on to say,

"Gold is going to be $1,200 to $1,500 by the end of the year."

"Oil prices had a pretty big run and might not make more headway by the end of the year. But we could see $150 to $200 next year."

"At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value."

[Havakasha]

Higher interest rates won’t derail recovery
Commentary: Job growth should offset higher rates, help housing
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hig...ery-2012-03-16
By Kathleen Madigan of Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A more upbeat outlook has a price: higher interest rates.

The years of market turmoil and economic uncertainty pushed investors into the safe-harbor arms of Treasurys. High demand lifted prices and sent yields down to rock-bottom lows. Now, more confidence in the recovery, along with less concern about the euro-zone debt crisis, are easing risk aversion.

The resulting rise in interest rates gathered steam after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Tuesday when the Fed sounded a bit more upbeat about the economy. In mid-Thursday trading, the yield on a 10-year Treasury stood at about 2.27%. That’s up about 60 basis points since September, a rise that puts upward pressure on interest rates linked to the government security.


Usually, higher borrowing costs are a drag on economic activity. Housing is particularly vulnerable to higher rates.

But that will not be the case this time around.

First, even with the rise, interest rates are historically low. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the fixed rate on a 30-year home loan is still a cheap 4.06%. Plus, business borrowers may be helped as investors turn away from Treasurys and become interested in riskier assets like corporate bonds.

Second, the Fed is not going to allow higher rates to stop a housing recovery.

“Housing is the Achilles heel of the recovery and [Fed chairman Ben] Bernanke is not about to let borrowing costs move too far against him,” says Eric Green, chief rate strategist at TD Securities.

In its efforts to boost housing demand, the Fed will also get help from the improved job market and banks’ greater willingness to lend.

The Fed’s first-quarter survey of bank officers show some banks are easing their standards for prime mortgages as well as for auto and other consumer loans.

Another plus is the increase in the loan-to-value ratio in mortgages, says Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Coming up with the money for a downpayment had been a big obstacle for first-time buyers. A higher LTV ratio means banks are allowing downpayments to cover a smaller share of the sales price.

[SiriuslyLong]

Its intellecutally disingenuous to only publish the same single prediction Mr. Schiff
got "right" in all the years of his career. if you look back you understand he has
basically been pushing the same doomsday scenarios for 20 years.
On ocassion he will get ONE right. MOST of the time he HAS gotten it wrong.
ITS JUST A FACT THAT YOU CANT REFUTE. The facts dont lie.

Once again some FACTS. I know its painful for you to read

Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

The Same Old Song

Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.


On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.

Single prediction? You are embarassing yourself. Take a look because you haven't. There are a half dozen predictions there. The sad part, which you clearly miss, is that the (multiple) people who Schiff proved wrong were people saying he was a fool -- kind of just like you... Hmmmm, you and Laffer making good company????????????????

[Havakasha]

Still not doing your job or unemployed?

I have demonstrated over and over and over again just HOW MANY TIMES he has been wildly wrong. Do you deny that?
If you cant admit it you are clearly in serious denial.
By "single" I am talking about the 2006 prediction involving the housing industry and economy.
BY the way that was a prediction he was making 10 years earlier. My point as well as the point
in the article is that he repeats the same predictions year in and year out, so of course he ocassionally gets something right. But on a whole host of measures he has been WILDLY WRONG
OVER MANY YEARs.


Please read article i posted again.

[SiriuslyLong]

Still not doing your job or unemployed?

I have demonstrated over and over and over again just HOW MANY TIMES he has been wildly wrong. Do you deny that?
If you cant you admit it you are clearly in denial.


Please read article i posted again.

I wouldn't deny any fact. That's your thing. Schiff did indeed mouth off about the Dow going to 1400. I posted the video dumbass.

[SiriuslyLong]

Single prediction? You are embarassing yourself. Take a look because you haven't. There are a half dozen predictions there. The sad part, which you clearly miss, is that the (multiple) people who Schiff proved wrong were people saying he was a fool -- kind of just like you... Hmmmm, you and Laffer making good company????????????????

So are you still sticking with his "single" prediction?