Signs the Economy is Turning Around

[SiriuslyLong]

I did say embarassing didnt I? The truth hurts only when you arent able to admit it.

After all that he gets wrong he has the balls to say this. WOW.


“...I Don't Think I've Been Wrong on Anything” THIS IS A PETER SCHIFF QUOTE AS I SAID EARLIER. NOT ONLY DOES HE GET SO MANY OF HIS ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS WRONG BUT HE HAS NEVER ADMITTED ANY OF HIS WILDLY WRONG PREDICTIONS. FACTS DONT LIE and he is clearly a LIAR.

May 14, 2010

Here's a graph on the gold ETF I bought.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=NYSEARCAGL

If you invested in 2007, your position would have grown over 500% (only). You can't ignore this fact.

Time will tell if he's right on the dollar collapse. One can only hope and trust that our Government will manage any such situation correctly.

The only liar here is you because of your rigid and extreme left wing ideology. It is dangerous to be this extreme as to not appreciate anothers point of view because of politics.

[Havakasha]

Some people are afraid to talk about the economy of today and the future. lol
If they want to debate Mr. Schiff's accuracy of economic predictions they will
lose embarassingly.
Reminder, Mr. Schiff known as the "permabear" called for a "catastrophic collapse of the Dow in Jan. 2011. lmfao
Reminder, Mr. Schiff is calling for the Dow to drop to 1,400 or Gold to rise to $12,000
within the next 2 years. Incredible B.S.

During the sharp and volatile stock market slide of 2008-09, Peter Schiff, who heads the brokerage firm, Euro Pacific Capital based in Darien, CT with five branch offices in California, Florida and Arizona, has frequently been on television, especially the cable channels including CNBC. Along with a growing chorus of others such as Nouriel Roubini, Barry Ritholtz, and Gary Shilling, Schiff is one of those guys now saying "I told you so" in reference to the recent economic and financial market problems.

Schiff's quote used for the headline of this article ("The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything") comes from an interview U.S. News & World Reports magazine did with Schiff in their May 30, 2008 issue. (In that piece, Schiff made a number of predictions I will get to in a moment.) The quote came from comments he made when discussing the supposed accuracy of his predictions over the past decade.

Peter Schiff began his career in the financial services world as a stockbroker, doing what I thought I wanted to do when I grew up. (I lost interest in the job once I learned about selling and working on commission). My dad used to take me to visit his broker at Merrill Lynch. Mind you, my dad was no high roller but he had begun handling some investments when he was laid off from his job as a mechanical engineer during the severe recession of 1973-74.

In watching and reading his interviews and in speaking with Schiff myself on February 12, 2009, I am struck by the forcefulness and certainty of his views and predictions. He doesn't hedge and as he did in the U.S News interview, he told me, "Pretty much everything is happening as I scripted it to happen with minor exceptions..."

[Havakasha]

Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

The Same Old Song

Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

[Havakasha]

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.

[SiriuslyLong]

Here's a graph on the gold ETF I bought.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=NYSEARCAGL

If you invested in 2007, your position would have grown over 500% (only). You can't ignore this fact.

Time will tell if he's right on the dollar collapse. One can only hope and trust that our Government will manage any such situation correctly.

The only liar here is you because of your rigid and extreme left wing ideology. It is dangerous to be this extreme as to not appreciate anothers point of view because of politics.

Here's the facts. You should be embarrased.

The future is yet unfortold. Due your own due diligence. I'd hate to see you get wiped out.

As for me, Peter Schiff has been a bountiful investment advisor enlightening me on the risks of the market. I have reaped personal gains based on his recommendations. Too bad your rigid politics won't allow you to reap bountiful rewards..... Ideologue you are.

[Havakasha]

i have had an excellent 3 years in the market. My Siri purchases started at .06
and my share count went to over 6 figures in that first year after near bankruptcy.
I am a rational investor and would never fall under the spell of a ideological charlatan
doomsdayer like Mr. Schiff.

If at first you dont suceed try, try again. lol

“...I Don't Think I've Been Wrong on Anything” THIS IS A PETER SCHIFF QUOTE AS I SAID EARLIER. NOT ONLY DOES HE GET SO MANY OF HIS ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS WRONG BUT HE HAS NEVER ADMITTED ANY OF HIS WILDLY WRONG PREDICTIONS.FACTS DONT LIE and he is clearly a LIAR.

May 14, 2010


Update May 18, 2010: I periodically get emails from Schiff disciples asking what do I think NOW about his great advice. Apparently many of these folks don't follow the performance of investments they aren't currently using because these folks seem to think that gold has beenhttp://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213 the place to be no matter what happens. One recent and good question was about Hartman and how his Schiff portfolio is doing "these days." The questioner seemed to be of the belief that Hartman would be much happier now with Schiff's picks to which I say, only if he is an ostrich with his head in the sand!

Since I interviewed Jason Hartman (see previous update below) in February, 2009, gold (Schiff's favorite investment for the supposed coming end of the U.S. dollar) was at about $1,000 per ounce. 15 months later now, gold is at about $1,200 an ounce, so it's up 20 percent since I spoke with Hartman. By contrast, U.S. stocks have rocketed higher and have had one of the best rallies ever. U.S. stocks, which Schiff said to shun, are up 70+ percent. So, stockpiling gold and staying out of stocks hasn't work so well for Schiff.

Schiff also said, "At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value." Wrong, wrong again on this one! I wrote in December, 2009 about how Schiff and a plethora of pundits were predicting the demise of the U.S. dollar in my piece, An Examination of the "Dire Circumstance" of the U.S. Dollar. The dollar is almost exactly where it was in early 2009! And, funny how the Euro crisis is now center-stage and folks are no longer talking about how weak the U.S. dollar is anymore.


Update February 23, 2009: I just got off the phone from doing a radio interview with Jason Hartman for his real estate and financial show. Early on, he asked me about various gurus and Peter Schiff's name quickly came up. Schiff he said had been a guest on his program in the past. Without missing a beat, Mr. Hartman proceeded to tell me how he invested $200,000 through Schiff's firm and now had just half of that left!



During the sharp and volatile stock market slide of 2008-09, Peter Schiff, who heads the brokerage firm, Euro Pacific Capital based in Darien, CT with five branch offices in California, Florida and Arizona, has frequently been on television, especially the cable channels including CNBC. Along with a growing chorus of others such as Nouriel Roubini, Barry Ritholtz, and Gary Shilling, Schiff is one of those guys now saying "I told you so" in reference to the recent economic and financial market problems.

Schiff's quote used for the headline of this article ("The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything") comes from an interview U.S. News & World Reports magazine did with Schiff in their May 30, 2008 issue. (In that piece, Schiff made a number of predictions I will get to in a moment.) The quote came from comments he made when discussing the supposed accuracy of his predictions over the past decade.

Peter Schiff began his career in the financial services world as a stockbroker, doing what I thought I wanted to do when I grew up. (I lost interest in the job once I learned about selling and working on commission). My dad used to take me to visit his broker at Merrill Lynch. Mind you, my dad was no high roller but he had begun handling some investments when he was laid off from his job as a mechanical engineer during the severe recession of 1973-74.

In watching and reading his interviews and in speaking with Schiff myself on February 12, 2009, I am struck by the forcefulness and certainty of his views and predictions. He doesn't hedge and as he did in the U.S News interview, he told me, "Pretty much everything is happening as I scripted it to happen with minor exceptions..."

Economic Background

When I asked Schiff what training and experiences he had to form his economic views and opinions, I asked if he was an economist or had any economics training. "I think I know more about economics than anyone with the title and I know more than anyone in government," he boasted, adding, "These other guys are witch doctors and I'm the real doctor."

As for when he developed his economic genius, Schiff told me, "I've always known this much -ever since I was a kid and my dad wrote a book called the Biggest Con: How the Government is Fleecing You, I understood capitalism and how it works. I read Ayn Rand and I read some of the Keynesian economics stuff and could see why those economists were all wrong."

Schiff's father, Irwin Schiff, is a long-term tax protestor who has written many books about the supposed illegality of the U.S. income tax system. Unfortunately the senior Irwin didn't read the section in my Taxes for Dummies about what happens to folks who refuse to pay their income taxes because they don't believe in the validity of our nation's tax laws. Sadly, Irwin Schiff, now in his 80s, has been convicted of numerous federal income tax crimes and is currently serving another lengthy prison term.

Interestingly, in the marketing copy for Irwin Schiff's book, The Biggest Con, it says of the book, "It will convince you that most American ‘economists' don't know what they are talking about - which is why this country is in such deep economic and financial trouble. It provides irrefutable proof of how the federal government has been continually undermining the American economy and forcing a lower standard of living on us all." This sounds a lot like the recent statements of his son Peter yet the father's book was published back in 1977! (You know the expression about the apple not falling far from the tree...)

Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

The Same Old Song

Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.

When asked, "Why don't you think soaring oil, grains, or commodities prices are the next bubble?" Schiff replied:

"These prices do not constitute bubbles. They simply constitute the repricing of goods to reflect the diminished value of our money. The way you can tell there's not a bubble is that these markets are clearing. People are buying food and eating it. They're buying gasoline and using it. Speculators aren't buying gasoline and warehousing it in big facilities because they think the price is going to go up." Schiff went on to say,

"Gold is going to be $1,200 to $1,500 by the end of the year."

"Oil prices had a pretty big run and might not make more headway by the end of the year. But we could see $150 to $200 next year."

"At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value."

[Havakasha]

Well, Schiff was wrong on these 2008 predictions on gold, and wrong on oil, which plunged with the commodity bubble bursting. When asked, "So how bad do you think this economy will get?" Schiff said, "We're going through a very rough period in our history. In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression." That's what prompted my call to Schiff to explain this stunning statement.

"During the depression, the U.S. economy was actually still fundamentally sound. The U.S. government created the great depression...Japan's government made the same mistakes in the 1990s and made the downturn worse and longer lasting," he said. He went on to explain, "We allowed our economy to move from producing goods to a service economy. Our economy now is completely phony."

In his 2002 television interview I discussed earlier, Schiff similarly argued that the U.S. economy would crater because of the decline of our manufacturing base. Perhaps if Schiff had studied some basic economics, he would have learned that economies change and that's not a bad thing. If Schiff had lived 100 years ago, he would have been screaming over the decline of our farming industry. And, as I recently discussed in my review of Jeremy Siegel's classic book, Stocks for the Long Run, the changing composition of our industry base is not in and of itself concerning in our global economy. We actually have a highly diverse economy.

In my recent interview of Schiff, sounding a lot like he did back in 2002, he said, "The government is trying to fix the economy through intervention and will make the situation worse. We can't afford all of this government. The dollar is still rising and the world is still giving us more rope to hang ourselves. The dollar will plunge and that will cause rapid inflation and high interest rates." As for being wrong on commodity prices last year, Schiff maintains that prices will make new highs and the only reason that hasn't happened yet is because the dollar hasn't yet collapsed.

Why hasn't this yet happened and why did commodity prices collapse in late 2008 while investors worldwide bought U.S. Treasury bonds and bills? "I overestimated the intelligence of the world to see the coming inflation," Schiff told me.

In summary, Schiff reminds me very much of Douglas Casey who wrote the 1980 best-seller Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression. Casey predicted soaring inflation and commodity prices and a plunging U.S. dollar. Schiff has been singing this same song for many years. The vast majority of Schiff's market and economic calls have been significantly off.

He appears to have built himself a profitable brokerage business by harping on the simple message that the U.S. is going down the tubes and you've got to get your money overseas and into commodities. However, his clients' performance (apparently following his risky and flawed predictions) has been sub-par as has been documented in numerous sources, most recently in this Wall Street Journal article.

As I've long argued, stock market investors should hold plenty of overseas stocks for diversification purposes and to benefit from foreign economies growing faster than the U.S. economy. However, buying individual stocks as Schiff advocates is costly (although profitable for his brokerage firm). Commodity investments is a high risk, dangerous game for novice investors and the only long-term winner there is usually the broker getting a piece of the trades and investments. Over the very long-term, commodity prices and gold have barely kept investors up with the rate of inflation. Over brief periods of unexpectedly higher inflation, such investments tend to do well but timing such moves is quite difficult to do.

[Havakasha]

U.S. exports to China boom, despite trade tensions

REUTERS - Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping looks at vases full of soybeans and corn as Iowa Governor Terry Branstad (L), Natalie Kimberley and her eight-month-old son Austin, Martha Kimberley (3rd L) and Rick Kimberley (R) look on during a visit to Kimberley's family farm, in Maxwell, Iowa in February. Soybean exports to China have increased significantly.

By Keith B. Richburg, Sunday, March 11, 6:31 PM

BEIJING — While the U.S. trade deficit with China continues to soar, a surge in U.S. exports is emerging as a bright spot in the often-troubled trade ties between the world’s largest economy and its largest foreign creditor.

With a richer China showing a growing appetite for U.S. products, the flow includes an increasing volume of American soybeans, cars, airplanes and medicine, and even garbage that can be mined for copper and aluminium. Overall, U.S. exports to China are up nearly 50 percent in value since 2008.

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

The surge is happening without much change in Chinese government policies and without much specific help from the Obama administration, which has a stated goal of doubling all U.S. exports globally by 2014. Instead, experts say, the main reason for the increase has been a booming China, where wealthier tastes include an increased appetite for meat — and hence for soybeans used as livestock feed.

Almost every U.S. state and congressional district has seen its China exports grow exponentially. Whether it’s pecan farmers in Georgia, plastics producers in Virginia, airplane makers in Washington state or scrap-metal dealers in places as diverse as Texas and New York — all have seen a boom in exports to China.

But as impressive as the U.S. export figures look, businesspeople and economists say that the number could be higher and that it would grow even more if China lowered its Great Wall of protectionist barriers.

“The China market should probably be even bigger than it is,” said John Frisbie, president of the Washington-based US-China Business Council. “It is absolutely right to make sure Americans understand that China’s market is fairly open to U.S. goods and services, but at the same time be clear that there are many market access barriers that make the market less than it should be.”

The boom in U.S. exports is not helping erase America’s trade deficit with China, which was $295 billion in 2011, $22 billion higher than the year before. But American exports to China have increased by an astounding 468 percent since 2001, when the country joined the World Trade Organization, and are up by nearly 50 percent since 2008.

American business leaders applaud the Obama administration for putting the spotlight on exports during meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao last year and with Vice President Xi Jinping during his visit to Washington last month. But they say there has been little, if any change in the Chinese government’s trade policies, licensing laws and investment rules — which, according to American policymakers and businesspeople, maintain restrictions China’s markets in some areas and keep the playing field uneven. The Chinese currency is undervalued by as much as 30 percent, American officials have said.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...y.html?hpid=z2

[SiriuslyLong]

Congratulations on your position on SIRI. Mine is similar, but I hold less than you. Yes, Schiff would have never recommended SIRI.

[Havakasha]

Yep, i have provided plenty of proof of Schiff's incompetence.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ar-low-1-.html
Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease, Matching Four-Year Low
By Shobhana Chandra and Alex Kowalski - Mar 15, 2012 4:23 PM ET

Claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to match a four-year low, and U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2008, signaling an improving labor market may boost household spending.
Applications for unemployment insurance payments fell by 14,000 to 351,000 in the period ended March 10, Labor Department figures showed today. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 33.7 from minus 36.7 in the week ended March 11.

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Mike McKee reports that claims for jobless benefits dropped last week in the U.S., matching the lowest level in four years, more evidence the labor market is improving while manufacturing in the New York region expanded in March at the fastest pace since June 2010. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "In The Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

“There’s a steady, sustained improvement in the labor market,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who was ranked the most-accurate forecaster of personal spending over the two years through February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “As more people have jobs, confidence is picking up. This is consistent with pretty solid gains in consumer spending.”
Prospects for stronger household demand, along with investment in new equipment, helped sustain manufacturing in the New York and Philadelphia regions this month, reports from the Federal Reserve showed today. At the same time, wholesale prices climbed in February by the most in five months, a reminder that higher gasoline costs pose a risk to corporate and consumer spending.
U.S. stocks advanced on the data, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above 1,400 for the first time in almost four years. The index rose 0.6 percent to 1,402.60 at the 4 p.m. close of trading in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 2.28 percent.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 52 economists called for 357,000 jobless claims. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s applications to 365,000 from the initially reported 362,000.
Firings Slow
Companies have slowed the pace of firings and are expanding their workforces as sales rise and the threat of financial contagion from a European default diminishes. Job growth in February capped the best six months since 2006, and the unemployment rate stayed at 8.3 percent, a three-year low.
“The economy seems to have regained its footing and is now on the way up,” said Edmund Phelps, director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University in New York and a Nobel Prize-winning economist. “It’s a good sign that companies are confident enough to be beginning to get their stock of employees back up to more normal levels.”
Rising Wages
TopJob Staffing, Inc. in Roswell, Georgia, which provides part-time bartenders and banquet employees for company events, this month added a full-time corporate staff manager. It was the first full-time manager added in seven years, President Scott Harb said.
“Our big corporate accounts and country clubs are calling us more frequently,” said Harb, 47. “When companies cut back, hospitality is the first thing to go. It came back in 2010 and was sustained in 2011.”
Brighter job prospects and rising wages are giving consumers the means to spend more. Purchases at stores and malls advanced 1.1 percent in February, the most in five months, after a 0.6 percent rise in January that was larger than previously estimated.
“We’re seeing some improvement in the environment” for the American consumer, Stuart Burgdoerfer, chief financial officer at Limited Brands Inc., said today at a conference in Boston. Columbus, Ohio-based Limited Brands operates the Victoria’s Secret lingerie chain and Bath & Body Works stores.
Clothing stores and auto dealers were among those showing improving demand last month. Cars and light trucks sold last month at the fastest pace in four years, according to Ward’s Automotive Group.
Buying Climate
The confidence report’s measure of the buying climate reached the highest level since November 2007, and a gauge of the state of the economy had its best showing since September 2008.
Lauren Barnard, 24, switched jobs last month after she was recruited by a San Francisco-based public relations company that specializes in technology. Barnard said she got a higher salary and is now considering buying a new car.
“I feel more comfortable spending money, going out to eat and getting drinks, and I think it’s the same for my friends,” said Barnard, a client executive. “I don’t have a fear that I’m going to lose my job anytime soon. I feel really comfortable. One of my friends even just bought a house, which is pretty cool.”