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Thread: Signs the Economy is Turning Around

  1. #1
    Havakasha is offline

    Signs the Economy is Turning Around

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...s5qR_blog.html


    by Steven Pearlstein

    In case you haven’t noticed, the economy is actually getting better. Noticeably better.

    Yes, it’s been painfully slow in coming, as we continue to tack against strong headwinds coming from Europe and the Middle East as well as the strong ebb tide created by the wind-down of fiscal stimulus. And certainly the recovery has been halting and uneven.
    Economic data suggest the recovery has picked up speed. So why do politicians on both sides seem to cling to worst-case scenarios? (istock)

    The data points for this optimism are to be found in recent reports on private payrolls (averaging just under 200,000 jobs per month for the past year), gross domestic product (growing at an annual rate of 3 percent), consumer confidence (as high as its been since 2008) and income (up 5 percent in the past year before adjusting for inflation).

    On Wall Street, the Dow is at its highest point in nearly four years and Nasdaq at its highest point in a decade, reflecting both record profits and renewed investor confidence. Federal and state tax revenues are beginning to come in better than projected and households are continuing to whittle down their debt, with a savings rate of 4.5 percent. There are even enough green shoots in the housing market to suggest that residential construction might contribute to GDP growth this year rather than subtract from it. Revisions of government data are now reliably up rather than down.


    If all you did was to listen to Republican presidential candidates (a cruel and unusual punishment, I realize), you would surely be under the impression that the country was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, businesses were barely getting by under the weight of excessive taxation and regulation, and most of the middle class was standing in bread lines. Their relentless demagoguery has undermined the recovery as much as the gridlock politics practiced by their Republican counterparts in Congress. When forced to confront the facts about the economy and the financial markets, the best response these jeremiads can come up with is that it could have been better.


    The fact that employment, income, profits and confidence are all moving in the right direction means two things.

    First, it means that fiscal and monetary stimulus succeeded in stabilizing the economy and financial markets. To say that they failed, or that they were unnecessary, is ideological nonsense.



    Keep reading by clicking on link at top of page.

  2. #2
    Havakasha is offline
    MIAMI, Fla. (MarketWatch) — Buffy the Vampire Slayer, meet Buffett the Doom Slayer.

    The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, is firmly entrenched with optimists who believe the worst is over for both the U.S. economy and the stock market.

    “It’s a terrible mistake to get pessimistic on America,” Buffett said on CNBC last month. “It has not worked since 1776 and it’s not going to work now.”

    Tell that to Harry Dent, Gerald Celente and Robert Prechter — confirmed pessimists who predict a stock market crash, financial panic, and perhaps a run on the banks.

    A market crash is coming in 2013 or 2014, Dent warned in an article in USA Today. “This will be a repeat of 2008-09, only bigger, when it finally hits,” said Dent, author of “The Great Crash Ahead.”

    P.S. Add Mr. Peter Schiff to the list of doomsdayers. He predicted a catastrophic stock market
    crash for january of 2011, and he predicts the Dow will fall to 1,400 or Gold will go to $12,000
    within the next 2 years. Not to mention he has been calling for hyperinflation for the past umpteen years.

    “Get out of the way,” Dent told USA Today. He suggests that you buy short-term U.S. Treasury bills and the U.S. dollar, and avoid stocks.

    In that same article, trend forecaster Gerald Celente told Americans to brace for an “economic 9/11.” He predicted that the coming meltdown will lead to social unrest, anti-government sentiment, more people out of work, and a weaker U.S. dollar.

    If there is a financial panic, Celente said it could trigger a run on the nation’s banks that might cause the government to invoke “economic martial law.” According to Celente, the threat is real. “When money stops flowing to the man on the street, blood starts flowing in the street.”

    Celente suggests that you buy gold if the U.S. dollar plunges, plan a getaway to more stable countries, and arm yourself with weapons.

    Meanwhile, author Robert Prechter was quoted in the USA Today story that “1930s-style deflation” could cause havoc with the nation’s finances. He warned that the major U.S. indexes could fall below their March 2009 lows. According to Prechter, just like in the 1930s, even a brief recovery will fail, and stocks could lose half their value. “The economic recovery has been weak, so the next downturn should generate bad news in a big way.”

    Sunny side of the Street

    Buffett is having none of that. “In terms of the economy,” he said on CNBC, “the luckiest person born in the history of the world is the baby being born in the United States. I mean, in terms of the outlook for their lives, they are going to live better than John D. Rockefeller lived or better than I lived.”

    Buffett has said that you could sit down at the start of every year and list 20 reasons why things are terrible. “But the truth is, this economy works wonderfully. It’s working wonderfully now. I mean, it isn’t working for everybody at this moment, and it’s coming back from a terrible shock that it received in the fall of 2008.”



    P.S. Add Mr. Schiff to the list of doomsdayers. He predicted a catastrophic stock market collapse
    in January of 2011 (of course it didnt happen) and predicts that the Dow will drop to 1,400 or gold
    will rise to $12,000 within the next 2 years. What a joke.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 03-06-2012 at 09:31 AM.

  3. #3
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    "What a joke"

    And this was too (just listen to the first 2 minutes): http://video.search.yahoo.com/search...schiff+youtube

    And the really hypocritical part of this is that Schiff kicked that ass of a REPUBLICAN from the Reagan administration. One would think the extreme leftist ideologists would appreciate that, but noooooooooooo.............. He even totally blows out the FOX NEWS analysts....... Not one comment from old Lloyd.....

    On second thought, do watch the whole thing..... Watch the whole thing and realize these video occur a FULL TWO YEARS in front of the bursting of the housing bubble.

    Get to the 7:20 mark where Schiff blasts bank stocks and gets blasted by EVERYONE. Who was right?

    Lloyd will never confirm any of this as it flys in the face of his rigid, extreme left wing ideology which is very DANGEROUS.

    Oh, and listen to his comments at the 9:15 mark where he notes that gold will go over $1000 an ounce. LMFAO.

    Lloyd, you should be ashamed of yourself. It's all right there in front of you. Deny if you please, but it is RIGHT THERE. That is, unless you believe this is FABRICATED??????

    What a joke.

  4. #4
    Havakasha is offline
    This thread is attempting to discuss what is happening with the economy now and into the future.
    Please have the courtesy to start you own thread if you wish to talk about Mr. Schiff ancient past one "good" doomsday prediction, but be sure to include the many predictions where he has been wildly wrong. Just a quick reminder, Mr. Schiff predicted from before the year 2000 that the U.S. was going into a bear market for the next 10 years. He was completely wrong. All his predictions
    concerning bonds, and bets on the dollar and other currencies were also wrong. His one correct bet was in gold. In other words he has a long standing habit of predicting doomsday scenarios for the U.S. and on rare occassions he gets it right (WAY more often he gets it WAY WRONG and those are the facts).
    For example in more recent times (2010) he predicted that the Dow would fall to 1,400 or gold will rise to $12,000 within the next 3 years. During this same time and for years prior he has been predicting hyperinflation (yes, not just high inflation but HYPERINFLATION) Extreme predictions partially given to sell newsletters and derive publicity, and partly due to his extreme ideological beliefs (like SiriuslyWrong, his extra loyal follower he believes President Obama is a Marxist. 2 peas in a pod). Now back to our regularly scheduled program. Thanks


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...mployment.html
    Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment
    By Craig Torres - Mar 7, 2012 12:00 AM ET

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spent six years pushing for an inflation goal. Now that he has it, some investors are betting he’ll breach the 2 percent target in the short run to lower unemployment.
    The Fed chairman told lawmakers last week that an increase in energy costs will boost inflation “temporarily while reducing consumers’ purchasing power.” He also said the central bank will adopt a “balanced approach” as it pursues its twin goals of price stability and full employment, which it defines as a jobless rate of between 5.2 percent and 6 percent.
    Enlarge image
    Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg
    “The chairman seemed to suggest they will tolerate a misdemeanor on inflation as unemployment continues to fall toward their goal” over several years, said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital, a hedge fund that manages $250 million in Washington.
    Policy makers at a March 13 meeting probably won’t deviate from their commitment to hold the main interest rate close to zero at least through late 2014, even if their forecast shows a burst of energy-driven inflation, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. They’ll probably be more concerned that rising prices will hold back real spending, impeding growth and improvement in the job market, he said.
    “The chairman said, ‘We think it is transitory, we are sticking to our guns, we are going to focus on the drag on income,’” Crandall said. Bernanke explained in his testimony how under a strategy of flexible inflation targeting, “a temporary spike in the price indexes can be a reason for the central bank to be more generous rather than less,” Crandall said.


    Click to read more.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 03-07-2012 at 11:23 AM.

  5. #5
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    "What a joke"

    And this was too (just listen to the first 2 minutes): http://video.search.yahoo.com/search...schiff+youtube

    And the really hypocritical part of this is that Schiff kicked that ass of a REPUBLICAN from the Reagan administration. One would think the extreme leftist ideologists would appreciate that, but noooooooooooo.............. He even totally blows out the FOX NEWS analysts....... Not one comment from old Lloyd.....

    On second thought, do watch the whole thing..... Watch the whole thing and realize these video occur a FULL TWO YEARS in front of the bursting of the housing bubble.

    Get to the 7:20 mark where Schiff blasts bank stocks and gets blasted by EVERYONE. Who was right?

    Lloyd will never confirm any of this as it flys in the face of his rigid, extreme left wing ideology which is very DANGEROUS.

    Oh, and listen to his comments at the 9:15 mark where he notes that gold will go over $1000 an ounce. LMFAO.

    Lloyd, you should be ashamed of yourself. It's all right there in front of you. Deny if you please, but it is RIGHT THERE. That is, unless you believe this is FABRICATED??????

    What a joke.
    DENIER LOL!!!! Priceless. You throw the stone and now your whining about the topic.. Oh Christ are you a child-like being.

    To be fair, here are Schiff's wildly wrong predictions for 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PVCVyh7Hzw

    But mind history young man. Laffer laughed and now look.

  6. #6
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560

    Gerald Celente 2012 Forcast

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvn01P3jKtg

    Starts by noting that he hit all of 2011 predictions. Have a look.

    House of cards............................
    Last edited by SiriuslyLong; 03-07-2012 at 11:12 AM.

  7. #7
    Havakasha is offline
    Again, this thread is titled "Signs the Economy is turning around". I welcome all people willing
    to post on this matter.

    Some people are obviously upset that positive turns in the economy are occurring. They believed in their doomsday predictions based on their distorted ideological beliefs. These same people are now rooting and hoping for a war with Iran and high gas prices. They are betting against our economy in the belief that President Obama will suffer the consequences. Sad but true.

    When someone posts a particular slant on an "economists" predictions, make sure to dig deeper
    and look at their record over the past 10 years or beyond. So obvious.
    And now back once again to our regular scheduled programming. Step right up and weigh in on
    the PRESENT and FUTURE direction of our economy. I understand its hard when you are rooting against its improvement, but clearly we have lots of economic problems and a discussion of how those should be tackled into the future would be useful.


    By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. private-employment growth is picking up, according to data released Wednesday that showed payrolls rose in February for the 25th month.

    Private-sector payrolls increased 216,000 on the month, led by the service-providing sector and small businesses, according to the February labor-market report from payrolls-processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. Over the last three months, gains have averaged 223,000, compared with a monthly average of 156,000 for 2011.

    ECONOMY AND POLITICS | Economy and Politics page

    Private-sector jobs pick up steam
    In another good sign for the jobs market, private-sector payrolls grew by 216,000 in February; ADP data shows an average monthly gain in payrolls over past 3 months of an improved 223,000.
    • U.S. wage pressure higher in fourth quarter

    “This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter, grew at the fastest pace since second quarter of 2010,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which produces the report for ADP.

    He added that the fresh data indicate that the U.S. unemployment rate may have “declined slightly” in February. Joblessness stood at 8.3% for January.

    “Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market,” Prakken said.

    Wednesday’s report echoes other improving labor-market data. Read about hiring on the upswing.

    Details

    ADP revised the January gain to 173,000 from a prior estimate of 170,000. Economists had expected a gain of 215,000 for February.

    By firm size, nonfarm private employment in February rose 108,000 at small businesses, 88,000 at medium businesses, and 20,000 at large businesses, according to ADP. By sector, service-provider employment rose 170,000, while goods producers added 46,000 jobs.

    “The latest ADP payroll survey adds to the evidence that U.S. labor market conditions are still improving,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist of Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. “The pick-up in employment growth was widespread across all sizes of firms and all sectors.”

    Markets look to ADP’s report on private-sector payrolls to provide some guidance on what to expect from the U.S. Labor Department’s jobs estimate, which will be released Friday and incorporates information on both private- and public-sector payrolls.

    Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the Labor Department to report that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 213,000 in February, compared with 243,000 in January. They also expect that the unemployment rate remained at 8.3%. See economic calendar.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 03-07-2012 at 11:21 AM.

  8. #8
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Nouriel Roubini’s Predictions for 2012

    Hava-gafa-kasha "follows" this guy. He is one of his "favorites".

    Nouriel Roubini’s predictions for 2012 are as dire as the can be. Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. Dr. Doom, spoke to Bloomberg TV and said “we’re going into a recession based on my numbers”. Here is an excerpt from Bloomberg TV interview:

    “We’ve reached a stall speed in the economy, not just in the U.S., but in the euro zone and the UK. We see probably a 60% probability of recession next year and unfortunately we’re running out of policy tools. Every country is doing fiscal austerity and there will be a fiscal drag. The ability to backstop the banks is now impossible because of political constraints and sovereigns cannot bail out their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves.”
    “Everyone would like a weaker currency, but if the currency’s weaker, another has to be stronger. There’ll be more monetary easing and quantitative easing done by the Fed and other central banks, but the credit channel is broken. The velocity has collapsed and all the extra money is going into reserves. There was asset deflation, but it occurred because the economic numbers in August started to improve even before QE was done. This time around the macro data is negative, so yes, the market is rallying on the expectation of QE3, but I think it will be a short-lived rally. The macro data, ISM, employment, and housing numbers will come out worse and worse, the market will start to correct again. We’re going to a recession, we are at stall speed and we are running out of policy bullets.”

    Read it all here: http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/20...ions-for-2012/

  9. #9
    Havakasha is offline
    Yes. I like Roubini, though he tends to have too negative a slant on what's happening.
    As far as i know he hasnt predicted that the Dow will fall to 1,400 or gold will go to $12,000
    unlike Mr. Schiff your favorite economist. lol. Translation:At least Roubini is not a nut case. He opposes the austerity measures that the right wing have been pushing. Much like Paul Krugman he believes that that is the wrong policy prescription. I have posted many articles on the problem with austerity solutions in Eurorpe and in the U.S. (particularly on the state level).Stimulus was the right decision in 2009 and I wish there were infrastructure bills going forward. Lets hope the Republican Congress
    stops playing politics with our economy. We are moving in the right direction in our economy and
    policy initiatives should be working to keep it going not trying to stop it in order to elect a Republican President.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 03-07-2012 at 12:10 PM.

  10. #10
    Havakasha is offline
    I quess since the Republican Congress is going to do everything in their power to gum up the works,
    the President and the Fed are our only means of effecting positive change.

    March 7, 2012, 12:00 p.m. EST
    Fed weighs new form of quantitative easing: report

    By Steve Goldstein
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve is considering a new kind of bond-buying program that would simultaneously try to limit inflation, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates.

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