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Thread: Its a New Year

  1. #1
    Havakasha is offline

    Its a New Year

    How will Peter Schiff and the Austrian school of economics predictions do this year?
    Last year they did pretty badly. Wonder if SiriuslyWrong and Ron Paul will still praise and
    defend him?

    Well, let’s go back in time and see how good his prediction was for 2011:

    US dollar demise: Schiff does not see much safety in the US dollar. Schiff says it is not just a dollar collapse, it is a bond collapse too; "avoid any kind of long term bonds, avoid treasuries, and avoid municipal bonds."
    The year is not over yet, there is still one more trading day so this can change, but in 2011 the US dollar is up 1.85%, basically flat. No collapse in the dollar like what Schiff predicted.

    The 3-year Treasury bond fund (SHY) is up 0.56% (basically flat), 10-year Treasury bond fund (IEF) is up 12%, and the 20-year Treasury bond fund (TLT) is up 28%. No collapse in treasuries like what Schiff predicted.

    I looked up three municipal bond ETFs (PZA, MUNI, MUB) and they are up 8%, 5%, and 10%. No collapse in municipal bonds like what Schiff predicted.

    I looked up one long term bond ETFs (BLV) and it is up 16%. No collapse in long term bonds like what Schiff predicted.

    Indeed, every bond fund I checked was up big this year (and everyone one I wasn’t invested in was up more than mine). Quite simply, what Schiff predicted would occur this year did not occur.

    Buy emerging markets and foreign currencies. Schiff is focusing on Asia where people work hard, are producing and have savings.
    The emerging market funds (VWO, EEM) were down 20% this year.

    For currencies:

    Japanese Yen: +4%
    Australian Dollar: –0.9%
    Swiss Franc: –1%
    Canadian Dollar: –2%
    Swedish Krona: –3.06%
    Euro: –3%
    Chinese Yuan: –1%
    Mexican Peso: –11%
    New Zealand Dollar: –10%
    Russian Ruble: –4%
    US Dollar: +1.85%

    How did the US dollar do against some other currencies directly?
    vs Singapore Dollar: +1.48%
    vs Hong Kong Dollar: –0.03%
    vs South African Rand: +25%

    Looks like the US dollar did very well this year and held its own against almost everyone, contrary to what Schiff said. Emerging markets also did poorly, contrary to what Schiff said.

    Buy precious metals and commodities. Stay with gold, stay with silver.
    Gold is up +9% this year, so he got this one right. However, silver is down –10% this year. Copper is down 42%, Aluminum is down 45% and platinum is down 25%. If you were lucky enough to buy a precious metal ETF, you could have made some money but not very much, maybe 3%.

    What about other commodities? The general commodities ETFs (GSG, MOO, DBA) are down 3%, 20% and 11%.

    The fact is that commodities did not do very well this year, contrary to Schiff’s advice.

    If you would have listened to Peter Schiff this year, you wouldn’t have done very well in the market. You would have underperformed it. Everything he recommended was either flat (currencies), down big (emerging markets) or straight up wrong (collapse in dollar, treasuries and bonds). He was right on gold but wrong on silver – and every other metal. That’s 1 out of 7.

    Now, you can argue (as Schiff does) that gold is a long term investment and long term, everything he is saying will turn out to be correct. Maybe. But for now, his prognostications are no more correct than anyone else’s.

    He did say, after all, that this was his outlook for 2011.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 01-10-2012 at 04:55 PM.

  2. #2
    Havakasha is offline
    Also just as a a reminder, Peter Schiff predicted hyperinflation for 2011. Wrong again.
    He predicted a stock market massive collapse in the early part 2011. Way wrong again.
    He predicted that the Dow would plunge to 1,400 or Gold will rise to $12,000 in the next 2 years.

    So when someone like SiriuslyWrong reads books by and defends someone like this, remember
    when he tries to sell you his lunatic fringe opinions on Obama.
    He is a Wacko, and i said that with all affection.

    Happy New Year.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 01-11-2012 at 01:11 PM.

  3. #3
    Havakasha is offline
    Step right up and read all about it.
    SiriuslyWrong was seriously wrong in his choice of economic heroes last year

  4. #4
    Havakasha is offline
    SiriiuslyWrong is doing what he does best. Run and hide when he is proved wrong.
    Until you own up to it I will post it in each and every thread. Chicken. lol
    Last edited by Havakasha; 01-11-2012 at 12:56 AM.

  5. #5
    Havakasha is offline
    Today i start the clock and countdown on SiriuslyWrongs avoidance of owning his place in history
    for so many incorrect economic predictions based on right wing assumptions.

    Day 1 is coming to an end. Tick tock
    Last edited by Havakasha; 01-11-2012 at 01:27 AM.

  6. #6
    Havakasha is offline
    Here is something I posted a year ago in jan. 2011 about Peter Schiff.
    Its an example of what happens when you become a rigid adherent to a right wing ideology.
    SiriuslyWrong really should be embarassed to have pushed Peter Schiffs book and his Austrian School
    of economics in this website.
    01-05-2011 09:15 AM #1
    Senior Member

    Peter Schiff:Economic Disaster in 2011
    Austrian School economist predicts economic doomsday scenarios for 2011.
    Anyone here believe what he has to say about interests rates going through the

    He comes in around 5:55.

    Peter Schiff Says U.S. is Powerless to Prevent Runaway Inflation, Silver to Soar to $100
    Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
    Sep 12, 2010 - 01:23 AM

    Peter Schiff forecasts that Silver could reach $100 following a collapse of the U.S. Dollar as he says “The United States right now is completely powerless to prevent runaway inflation”, as the U.S. continues with policies of more economic stimulus and bigger deficits.

    “I think growth is real around the world and I think inflation, unfortunately, is very real. Central banks are much too easy. They’re printing much too much money.

  7. #7
    Havakasha is offline
    And now here is SiriuslyWrongs response to this post. As i said before, it really should convince anyone
    just how bad is his judgement on politics and economics.

    01-05-2011 06:11 PM #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Ann Arbor, MI
    I wouldn't dismiss any predictions for 2011 at this time. From my perspective (i.e. petrochemicals), it's starting to feel a lot like 2008. And look at the market......"

    And right up until fall of 2011 he was still claiming 2011 wasnt over yet and therefore Schiff still had a chance to be right. Lmfao.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 01-11-2012 at 01:12 PM.

  8. #8
    Havakasha is offline
    Day 3 and SiriuslyWrong is still running from the facts. What a man.

  9. #9
    Havakasha is offline
    Well i have to give him a little bit of credit. Today SiriiuslyWrong actually finally admitted that Peter Schiff got some things wrong in 2011, while still trying to distance himself from him. Good try.

  10. #10
    Havakasha is offline
    Not going away so soon. You support and praise Mr. Schiff and present a watered down prediction by him for 2012 and I'm going tomake sure nobody ever forgets just how much an incompetent your favorite "economist" is. He is the guy who said that either Dow will reach 1,400 or gold will go to $12,000 in the next 2 years. And you expect anyone to listen to YOUR economic pronouncements? Good try.

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