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Thread: The Deal With HD

  1. #21
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    zcurzan, you did read the original Newman article where in here do you see Ibiquity having to pay the extra cost of the radio to bring it down.

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    So by agreeing to install HD into all future models of SatRads, Sirius/XM could potentially swing a large amount of support towards the side of approval. This would have to be done with some stipulations, of course.


    1.)All FUTURE models would be designed with HD radio. All current models are exempt from this requirement.

    2.)iBiquity or the HD alliance would have to provide the funding to pay for all of the HD chipsets that would be installed into the radios.

    3.)iBiquity or the HD alliance would have to assist with design costs for the inclusion of HD radio.

    4.)iBiquity or the HD alliance would have to share the cost of subsidies for the installation of Satellite/HD radio combos to manufactures. Sirius/XM would still be on their own regarding revshare, etc.

    5.)The agreement does not mandate Sirus/XM or any of their partners to provide any advertising or technical assistance in regards to HD radio, other than that guaranteed by the unitís warranty.

    This proposal would show that Sirius/XM are willing to help support HD radio, as long as they are willing to support themselves. To me, HD is not a deal breaker, as long as Sirius/XM do not have to foot the bill. Is the HD Alliance willing to put *some* money into the deal or are they simply looking for a free ride?

    *From Newmans article on Sirius Buzz, (I added * before, and after some)
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    The key word here is "SOME"

    Do you really think the chip subsidy is the only cost satellite radio pays to get a radio down to 29 dollars. That radio if Ibiquity gets what even Newman wants is still going to go up big time. Therefore taking away any incentive of satellite radios rebate the cost of that radio. That is unless satellite radio starts to pay an even bigger amount to take care of the rest of the HD cost. We know Ibiquity will not do it, they have refused to do so already.
    Last edited by john; 07-21-2008 at 11:46 AM. Reason: move things

  2. #22
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    Newman, I to hope that I am right also. Think about it this way, what kind of gut feeling did you have before the DOJ and then Martin? I had those same gut feelings before those decisions also. After the DOJ approved with no concessions, I realized I was better of listening to my common sense then my gut. I just feel if anything it will be a few more channels under the same conditions that Martin put forth. That as we know is no big deal. Let public knowledge and minorities pay for the content as long as the people, have to still subscribe and pay SIRI/XMSR, to get the channels.

    zcurzan, Dont put it passed Mel to tell the FCC (Tate) that SIRI will walk away from this deal, and mean it. He is no fool and will take no action off the table.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    zcurzan, you did read the original Newman article where in here do you see Ibiquity having to pay the extra cost of the radio to bring it down.
    i never said it did say that. this whole thread has been a hypothetical situation about why the HD inclusion wouldn't be so bad if the costs wasn't burdened on satellite radio.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    zcurzan, Dont put it passed Mel to tell the FCC (Tate) that SIRI will walk away from this deal, and mean it. He is no fool and will take no action off the table.
    when that happens, ill fly out to wherever you are and buy you a beer. you are delusional

  5. #25
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    zcurzan, This whole thing has been about the Newman article. My main point has always been, that reguardless of what conditions that Newman put forward. It is going to be a constant cost to satellite radio not just a one time thing. It will ether cost them in growth due to the fact that the radios are now to expensive or it will cost them money, to rebate the additional cost of HD, to keep the radios cheap.

    Delusional, well check this out:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/high-g...ay-sirius.aspx

    I guarantee you he is not the only one that thinks that way. Why dont you ask Newman if he thinks I am delusional. You ask Newman or Tyler if they think, Mel took that option off the table. If there is anyone delusional here I believe that is, you. If you beleive Mel would ever take that option off the table. How the Hell do you think Mel got the concessions he got Martin to agree too, after a year and 2 months. Why do you think Martin said that there was very little wiggle room in what he put forward. If Mel took that off the table, Martin would have gotten more and not said what he said. So finally when you say I am delusional you better have the facts to back that up, other wise it is you that will look that way.

  6. #26
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    It is going to be a constant cost to satellite radio not just a one time thing. It will ether cost them in growth due to the fact that the radios are now to expensive or it will cost them money, to rebate the additional cost of HD, to keep the radios cheap.
    All I'm saying is that if Ibuity absorbed all incremental costs (their portion of a radio subsidy and development costs), the fact is that HD inclusion wouldn't materially impact satellite subscriptions. I didn't mean to imply that they would, I was just under the impression we were discussing ways which Sirius could negotiate the terms favorably.

    Yes I've read Rick's articles this entire time. And I usually like what he has to say, but I do not agree with him on this one. Mainly because it is premised on the fact that Adelsteins proposal is somehow the end all of the merger negotiations. When in realty it's some whack job anti-consolidation democrats long winded way of saying "I'm denying the merger, but I'm going to look like I actually put some thought into this thing over the last 17 months".

    When you say "took that off the table" what are you referring to? A specific negotiated concession?

    I'm saying that Mel is not going to walk on an entire deal that has been pending for 17 months, and that the company has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in. You're telling me that its a good business decision for him and the company? To get to the finish line of a rediculously long negotiation and then refuse to be flexible with the FCC because waaah waah they won't get exactly what they want?

    Might as well piss all the lobbying and legal fees down the toilet. The fact is that they are better off as a combined entity, even with certain concessions, to a point. XMSR has additional spectrum that Sirius won't get by itself, which allows them more room to add services and compete in the future. And even Adelstein admitted today that he was stretching it when he asked for what he asked. That is literally the "high bar" and its not going to happen.

  7. #27
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    zcurzan, As I have said ther are no favorable terms to this deal, period. I read this:

    "All I'm saying is that if Ibuity absorbed all incremental costs (their portion of a radio subsidy and development costs), the fact is that HD inclusion wouldn't materially impact satellite subscriptions. I didn't mean to imply that they would, I was just under the impression we were discussing ways which Sirius could negotiate the terms favorably."

    To mean that you think if they did it this way it would not effect satellite radio sales. I disagree very very much as I have said even if Ibiquity subsidized everything you said there still is the extra cost the manufactures are going to have to make it just adding the HD equipment. SIRI gives a rebate to get this price down, so that the radio is no longer the reason for not getting satellite radio, SIRI wants the subscriber not the revenue from the radio. That same radio will go up in cost due to HD being added.

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    "Yes I've read Rick's articles this entire time. And I usually like what he has to say, but I do not agree with him on this one. Mainly because it is premised on the fact that Adelsteins proposal is somehow the end all of the merger negotiations. When in realty it's some whack job anti-consolidation democrats long winded way of saying "I'm denying the merger, but I'm going to look like I actually put some thought into this thing over the last 17 months"."


    So would you call him delusional. P.S. If you read the very end, he already things the concessions to be enough and that anymore would be to much.

    ************************************************** ******

    When you say "took that off the table" what are you referring to? A specific negotiated concession?


    zcurzan, Dont put it passed Mel to tell the FCC (Tate) that SIRI will walk away from this deal, and mean it. He is no fool and will take no action off the table.

    I cant be any clearer, then I was, when I first said it.

    ************************************************** ******


    I'm saying that Mel is not going to walk on an entire deal that has been pending for 17 months, and that the company has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in. You're telling me that its a good business decision for him and the company? To get to the finish line of a rediculously long negotiation and then refuse to be flexible with the FCC because waaah waah they won't get exactly what they want?


    It was pending for 16 months when Martin came out with his approval and statement.

    I dont know where you are getting the hundreds of millions. I have yet to see even close to that much in their any of the qurterly reports combined as the cost of this merger.

    There comes a point, that what you are giving up, is to much that it makes no sense to go through with it. That point is not what Martin wants. I really dont think Mel will give up that much. These last concessions that Martin asked for should have told you that. Finally yes they may have to flush the money down the toilet that they put into it. that is the chance you take to try and get a merger through. Lets not forget this was suppose to be a long shot in the first place, when it begain.

    In the end though, the merger will go through. It will be without what you guys are talking about. As I have said, that HD problem is more then all the rest of the concessions combined. Why I will not go into at this time, for reasons already stated. As you look at the rest of them compared to this HD thing. I think you will see what I am talking about. Newman also knows what I am talking about, I beleve.

  8. #28
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    I understand your argument, and you make some good points, some of which I already agree with. But it's pretty clear we don't see eye to eye on this haha

    See you in the next thread

  9. #29
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    zcurzan, OK, but just so you know I like to say I told you so. So in the end we will see. I think at the most that will happen in this is, a guarantee that SIRI/XMSR will not interfere with the OPEN ACCESS, so if manufactures want to put HD in their radios then there is nothing SIRI/XMSR can do about it. At the same time if those dont sell then they dont get the chipsets to replace the ones that did not sell, untill they do.

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