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Thread: Siri Stock Thread Nov 2011

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  1. #1
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    Siri Stock Thread Nov 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by socalrunningfool View Post
    Melissa Lee, "Porn: Business of Pleasure"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Za4ZodA4EVc------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I think I saw my son in the background........................................ ..........
    I guess we are getting old socal . . . back in our day, a prolonged dry spell could be cured with a VCR and some Hyapatia Lee . . . today's kids break the drought with CNBC and Melissa Lee.
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 07:32 PM.

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    Spencer Conspiracy Theory # 974

    Looks like Savery is up to his old tricks again . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    The company is now less transparent than they used to be in the subscriber metric. They no longer separate OEM and retail. I suspect that they simply do not want the street to see the break-out numbers due to their new retail units. My suspicion is that the retail numbers will not be as good as perhaps the street wants, thus, they are now hidden.
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 07:35 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    The street is looking for revenue to come in at about $764 million. I think that the street may be a bit aggressive here. Simply stated there was one time revenue last quarter that will not exist this quarter. I see the street expectations of $764 million to be at the high end of the range. Look for revenue to be between $750 million and $762 million with a safe bet at $756 million.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mel Karmazin View Post
    Although we're proud of our subscriber growth, our financial performance was even better. Revenue of $763 million was up 6% and represents a new record for a single quarter. Keep in mind that our pricing remains constrained at present. And as you know, we actually lowered the Music Royalty fee last December, which held back ARPU a bit. Despite the restraints on our pricing, we remain on track to grow our revenue by about 6% and hit our full year revenue guidance of approximately $3 billion. Importantly, the revenue constraint disappears in just 2 months.
    . . . . . . . . .
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 08:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    Look for $189,000,000.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mel Karmazin View Post
    The tight expense control and our revenue growth produced adjusted EBITDA of $197 million, up 16% year-over-year for the quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 26% was also a new record high. In 2012, we expect adjusted EBITDA will climb to approximately $860 million. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance next year implies a full year 26% margin, up from an estimated 24% for the full year of 2011. We continue to believe that we will be able to achieve long-term margins in excess of 40% by scaling subscribers and revenue and holding the line on expenses.
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 08:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mel Karmazin View Post
    We just turned EBITDA positive 3 years ago, and we are very pleased where we have been able to move our margin at this stage of our development. Growing EBITDA is really a precursor to driving free cash flow, which we believe is the primary driver of SiriusXM's value. We are focused on growing our free cash flow substantially in the future. Free cash flow will enable us to invest in our business, which will increase growth, reward shareholders via dividends or share repurchases and make accretive acquisitions to improve the value of our company.

    In 2012, we plan to grow our cash generation to nearly $2 million every day. That's including weekends and holidays. Truly an astounding statistic, which will obviously represent the best free cash flow in the history of the company.

    Revenue growth is fantastic for investors, but it's best when combined with high incremental margins and tight expense controls. Our low incremental costs and focus on our fixed expenses will result in expanding EBITDA margins. And with our low requirement for capital expenditures and multi-billion-dollar tax shield, we plan to dramatically increase free cash flow over the coming years. Remember that over the next few years, we will have the opportunity to refinance some of our expensive legacy debt at lower rates. We will have many years without the need for substantial satellite capital expenditures, and with roughly $8 billion of NOLs, we have a substantial tax holiday. All of these things will help us grow free cash flow for many years to come. We intend to be good stewards of this cash flow.
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 08:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    Look for SAC to be between $58 and $60 on the build-out of retail radios and additional marketing expenses.
    Quote Originally Posted by David Frear View Post
    SAC per gross add continues its steady downward trend. At $55, it improved 6.8% over the prior year, largely offsetting the 9.5% growth in gross additions, contributing about half of the pickup in our EBITDA margin in the quarter.
    Looks like Spencer was schooled at the knee of that great mind David Bank!
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 11-01-2011 at 08:29 PM.

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