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Thread: Peter Schiff Wrong SO many times/

  1. #11
    Havakasha is offline
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    Ideologues like S&L...... lmfao. i know this hurts but you asked for it.


    Tell me Siriusly WRONG if Peter Schiff was right about any of these things. Thanks. You can duck and hide but the FACTS will follow you around.

    From Wikipedia:

    In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years,[37] until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[38] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[39] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 09-21-2011 at 12:46 PM.

  2. #12
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    No More Stupid Forecasts!
    By Michael Edesess
    July 5, 2011

    "Successes on the front page, failures in the back
    No one escapes unscathed from Gardner’s review. Peter Schiff, for example, who has been lionized for having insistently predicted the financial crisis, is shown to have made many other forecasts that were dead wrong — including predictions of crises that didn’t happen."

    Eat, Drink, & Be Merry, for Tomorrow We (Might) Die, March 20, 2011
    by William Holmes.

    Gardner's "Future Babble" is a much needed antitode to the endless stream of nonsense that we hear from pundits who claim to be able to predict the future. Broadly speaking, Gardner distinguishes between two types of experts: Hedgehogs, who know a given subject extremely well, are very confident about their predictions and are almost always wrong, often spectacularly so; and Foxes, whose opinions about the future recognize the difficulties and complexity of forecasting and are nuanced accordingly. The Foxes are only a bit more apt to be on target than the Hedgehogs, but they will at least acknowledge their errors, recognize the limitations of their art and adjust their opinions to account for new facts. They are also routinley ignored because they are boring.

    Unfortunately, people crave certainty, so they lionize experts who make bold, articulate predictions about what will happen five, ten, fifteen, even fifty years from now, a proposition that is inherently suspect when you consider that chaos theory shows that even small changes in initial assumptions will dramatically change long-term outcomes. Fortunately for the experts and their livelihood, listeners do an incredibly poor job of holding experts accountable for their gross errors. We remember the rare hits and ignore the many, many misses, a point that Gardner illustrates elelgantly and repeatedly.

    With wit and broad knowledge of his subjects, Gardner skewers numerous still famous "experts" who have routinely been wrong about things like the price of oil, the scarcity or abundance of commodities, population growth, Y2K, the collapse or persistence of the Soviet Union, and a host of other problems. He also explains the psychological reasons--confirmation bias, negativity bias, anchoring bias, hindsight bias, optimism bias, and even "bias bias"--that enables experts to maintain their self-confidence despite their manifest errors, and that causes the rest of us to keep hanging on their every word despite the fact that they are usually wrong. We are drawn to those who are "often in error, but never in doubt" rather than those who recognize that predictions are very hard to make, especially about the future.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 09-21-2011 at 12:46 PM.

  3. #13
    Havakasha is offline
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    Here is your favorite economist in living color: Really sorry to have to embarass you like this
    but if you wont acknowledge some of his past mistakes i will have to post them as a reminder.


    http://investingcaffeine.com/2009/09...as-no-clothes/

    12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
    Wrong about hyperinflation
    Wrong about the dollar
    Wrong about commodities except for gold
    Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
    Wrong about foreign equities
    Wrong in timing
    Wrong in risk management
    Wrong in buy and hold thesis
    Wrong on decoupling
    Wrong on China
    Wrong on US treasuries
    Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

  4. #14
    Havakasha is offline
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    wikipedia:

    "...SCHIFF WASNT JUST WRONG, BUT ENDED UP BEING HUGELY WRONG" (Read down the article
    to see what this quote refers to).


    U.S. bear market
    In his 2007 book Crash Proof, Schiff wrote that United States economic policies were fundamentally unsound, and predicted that the United States dollar would lose much of its value.[3] Schiff believed that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumed and what it produced would eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy.[31][32] As a remedy Schiff favored increased personal savings and production which he said would stimulate economic growth.[33] Schiff cited the U.S.'s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of its transformation from the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000.[34] Schiff attributed the low savings rate to higher inflation and the artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.[35]
    In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the dot-com stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[36][37] In November 2002, US stock indexes began a bull market uptrend which held steady for five years,[38] until reversing course in 2008, when they began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[39] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[40] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong."[41] Schiff later released a video stating that, "When I gave that interview in 2002, I had no way of knowing how irresponsible the Fed was going to be ... But I recognized that early: back in 2003 and 2004 I changed my forecast ... if you look at what happened to the Dow in terms of gold [and not U.S. dollars], my forecast was extremely accurate."[36]
    In an August 2006 interview he said: "The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States."[42] On December 31, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007" is that "real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to Earth".[42]
    As part of these exchanges on Fox News and his repeated appearances on financial news network CNBC, Schiff had mentioned factors such as speculators and "the absence of lending standards" which are now seen by many[43][44] to indeed be contributing factors to the housing crisis which began in 2007. On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show Open Exchange, Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry.[45] Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP... At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission."[46]

  5. #15
    Havakasha is offline
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    You have got to love the arrogance of Mr. Schiff S&L Too bad he HAS been wrong many times.


    Schiff's quote used for the headline of this article ("The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything") comes from an interview U.S. News & World Reports magazine did with Schiff in their May 30, 2008 issue. (In that piece, Schiff made a number of predictions I will get to in a moment.) The quote came from comments he made when discussing thesupposed accuracy of his predictions over the past decade.

  6. #16
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    Economic Background

    When I asked Schiff what training and experiences he had to form his economic views and opinions, I asked if he was an economist or had any economics training. "I think I know more about economics than anyone with the title and I know more than anyone in government," he boasted, adding, "These other guys are witch doctors and I'm the real doctor."

    As for when he developed his economic genius, Schiff told me, "I've always known this much -ever since I was a kid and my dad wrote a book called the Biggest Con: How the Government is Fleecing You, I understood capitalism and how it works. I read Ayn Rand and I read some of the Keynesian economics stuff and could see why those economists were all wrong."

    Schiff's father, Irwin Schiff, is a long-term tax protestor who has written many books about the supposed illegality of the U.S. income tax system. Unfortunately the senior Irwin didn't read the section in my Taxes for Dummies about what happens to folks who refuse to pay their income taxes because they don't believe in the validity of our nation's tax laws. Sadly, Irwin Schiff, now in his 80s, has been convicted of numerous federal income tax crimes and is currently serving another lengthy prison term.

    Interestingly, in the marketing copy for Irwin Schiff's book, The Biggest Con, it says of the book, "It will convince you that most American ‘economists' don't know what they are talking about - which is why this country is in such deep economic and financial trouble. It provides irrefutable proof of how the federal government has been continually undermining the American economy and forcing a lower standard of living on us all." This sounds a lot like the recent statements of his son Peter yet the father's book was published back in 1977! (You know the expression about the apple not falling far from the tree...)

    Before I get to Peter Schiff's more recent predictions, I was able to track down some of his older ones. I always enjoy doing this for prognosticators like Schiff who claim as he did to U.S. News last year that, "The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything," in reference to his predictions over the past decade. Let's take a look at that bold claim.

  7. #17
    Havakasha is offline
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    The Same Old Song

    Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.


    At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.

    On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

  8. #18
    Havakasha is offline
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    And i have pointed out repeatedly S&L WILL NOT acknowledge all the wrong predictions that Mr. Schiff has made.
    That is THE defintion of an ideologue.

  9. #19
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    Ideologues like S&L...... lmfao. i know this hurts but you asked for it.


    Tell me Siriusly WRONG if Peter Schiff was right about any of these things. Thanks. You can duck and hide but the FACTS will follow you around.

    From Wikipedia:

    In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years,[37] until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[38] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[39] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.
    You are a fool. I posted this earlier COMPLETE with the what comes AFTER the last line YOU didn't include LMFAO.

    ARE YOU SERIOUS? Are you trying to HIDE the rest of it????

    Holy $hit, this is hilarious.

  10. #20
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    And i have pointed out repeatedly S&L WILL NOT acknowledge all the wrong predictions that Mr. Schiff has made.
    That is THE defintion of an ideologue.
    Technically, it is still 2011 so predictions for 2011 cannot be wrong as you suggest. What a pitiful fool you are. Stick to it. It's suits you well.

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