Oil Prices Need to Fall Much More to Avoid Recession: Pros
Published: Friday, 12 Aug 2011 | 12:34 PM ET Text Size
If history is any guide, another oil-induced recession may be just around the corner, at least for the United States and some of the other developed economies.
Every time that the cost of oil relative to global economic output has hit current levels — and that's even after sharp falls in spot prices this month — it has heralded a slump.
And while economists and analysts say a serious slowdown can still be avoided, many add that unless oil and energy prices fall much further and — most important — stay down, the world economy could be in serious trouble.
"We are in a danger area for the world economy," said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at Credit Agricole [CRARF 9.35 0.35 (+3.89%) ].
The warning signal flashing is what economists call the "oil expense indicator": the share of oil expenses as a proportion of worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) (oil prices times oil consumption divided by world GDP).
Since 1965, this has averaged roughly 3 percent of GDP, and it has only exceeded 4.5 percent during three periods: in 1974, between 1979 and 1985 and in 2008.
Each period has seen severe global recessions.
In 1973/74, during the first global "oil shock," oil prices rocketed after an Arab oil embargo in response to an Arab-Israeli war disrupted oil flows and triggered panic buying.
I wonder if S&L even bothered to listen to it?
Too important to not rise to the top of the pile.
Hey Niagra did you listen to Roubini? What do you think because it seems as if Siriusly Long is too flummoxed to comment.
Liberals use moralistic platitudes and catchy phrases like "social justice" and "The Brotherhood of Man" to appeal to the naive masses who are duped into believing that the ultimate goals of Liberals are genuinely benign and beneficient. However at the root, like the Prince in Machiavelli's greatest work, the single moral principle that Liberals adhere to is the continual accumulation and centralization of all power.
What do you think of Roubini's comments on the economy? You seem to have gone off the deep end with your latest expressions of hatred toward the Liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Sorry your feeling so angry.
Liberals despise the suburbs as a manifestation of individual prosperity, private property ownership, and the independent family.
What do you think of Apple pie? Lol.
I prefer carrot cake, but apple pie is damn good. I like to add a little vanilla.
Speaking of food, a damn deer was in my garden. Ate my beans, a cucumber and bunch of tomatoes. Interestingly, it seems to like one variety of the tomatoes I grow - "Health Kick Hybrid" - from Burbee's. It is a roma type with 50% more lycopene. Does great in sauces.