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Thread: Siri Stock Thread August 2011

  1. #31
    sxminvestor is offline
    Spencer,
    Only because I see this conversation going on in this thread will I bring this up here, but if I were you, I would disassociate myself from Seeking Alpha. You are way to professional to be seen in the same circles with the crap that writes for that site. It is the biggest joke I have ever seen and you are going to hurt your own reputation just for clicks.

  2. #32
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Wow - I've missed all the drama. Even a showing from John..... You should go down to politics and visit your old friend Havakasha - always exciting when you two get together for a chat.

    Anyway, I here today to understand what the **** is going on with SIRI. It hasn't been this bearish since the journey to a nickel, and that was for a very specific reason.

    So I take it to be "terrible macro market environment"? I'm not buying that. The news is negative, but things are humming along on the factory floor. Orders are strong - even for the lazy, hazy end of summer days.

  3. #33
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    SAAR Still on Track

    Car Dealers Fear Economy is Scaring off Consumers
    7:39 AM, Aug. 23, 2011

    Written by
    Associated Press

    J.D. Power and Associates cut its 2011 sales forecast last week by 2 percent, to 12.6 million new cars and trucks. It cut its 2012 forecast by 3 percent, to 14.1 million. Ford Motor Co. is sticking with its sales forecast of around 13 million for the year.

    “We’re not getting back to what was considered normal or healthy as quickly as possible, but it’s still a pretty strong progression,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting for J.D. Power.
    Sales bottomed at 10.4 million in 2009.

    Since that year, the U.S. auto industry has grown remarkably, adding jobs faster than the economy as a whole. The industry has added about 77,000 jobs since June 2009. That is an increase of 12 percent, compared with a rise of 0.2 percent for the economy overall.

    People looking to buy a car later this year could benefit from any reduced demand today.
    Carmakers are likely to roll out sweeter deals, Schuster said, “just to keep buyers active and give them another reason to come in.”


    http://www.dailyrecord.com/article/2...-off-consumers

  4. #34
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Osborne Speaks on SAAR Revision!

    I just got off the phone with Spencer Osborne . . . he was kind enough to call in from his Martha's Vineyard compound. I asked him about the J.D. Power SAAR revision to 12.6 million units. Osborne said:

    "The news should be music to the ears of Sirius XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) investors as it is through car sales that the company garners most of their subscriptions. With promotional subscriptions being the lifeblood to continued growth, the OEM channel has become a focal point of investors as they gauge their investment in satellite radio. One easy method to gauge the auto sector is to simply see if 1 million cars sell each month. One million is the magic number that provides enough GROSS subscriber additions to ensure that the company can announce positive NET subscribers and in general good financial metrics across the board."

    I then asked Osborne what investors should note about a 12.6 million SAAR projection . . .

    "Well, Sirius XM investors need only note one important number. Were auto sales above 1 million for the month? The answer to that question is a resounding YES."

    I asked Osborne about the effects of the negative macro environment which is of much concern to Siriusly Long. Osborne said:

    "Savvy investors understand that the overall news, even if it really is not negative to SIRI, will carry a short term impact followed by overall positives when the company reports."

    I thanked Ozzy for his time, wished him well for the remainder of his vacation and asked about his current price target . . .

    "Thank you for the kind words. My target for the end of the year is $2.70 to $2.80. I have had that price target in tact for a couple of months now. When Q3 auto sales are in the books, when we see exactly what satellite radio 2.0 can deliver this year, when we see what will happen with the Blessing case, and when we see what type of pricing the company will have, I will have enough information to assess reasons to move my target. Right now I am looking for solutions to all of these that will play out in the next couple of months. I have my cautions in place, and if they materialize, my opinion can change."
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 08-23-2011 at 03:03 PM.

  5. #35
    Atypical is offline
    Sirius XM: A Rare Opportunity To Buy Below Fair-Value

    On SA for what it's worth.

    http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/exter...e?source=yahoo

  6. #36
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    SB Trivia # 149

    Essay Question:

    Given the following data set:

    8-23-2011
    Open: $1.70
    Close: $1.69
    Volume: 200mm (R)


    What inferences can be drawn?

  7. #37
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Essay Question:

    Given the following data set:

    8-23-2011
    Open: $1.70
    Close: $1.69
    Volume: 200mm (R)


    What inferences can be drawn?
    Open and close with a delta of 1 cent on huge, I mean HUGE, volume.......... hmmmmmm.........

  8. #38
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Sirius XM Wins Court Approval

    Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) won court approval of a lawsuit against subscribers who claimed the satellite radio broadcaster broke the law when it raised prices after merging with its only rival.

    U.S. Judge Harold Baer in New York endorsed the accord over the objections of dozens of subscribers who attended a hearing Aug. 8, according to a filing today.

    “I have reviewed the settlement’s substantive terms and conclude that they demonstrate sufficient fairness, adequacy and reasonableness,” Baer wrote.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...it-accord.html

  9. #39
    Havakasha is offline
    [QUOTE=SiriuslyLong;70553]Wow - I've missed all the drama. Even a showing from John..... You should go down to politics and visit your old friend Havakasha - always exciting when you two get together for a chat.

    No need to call on John, Siriusly Long. You have been doing quite well replacing him and representing his positions. LOL.
    Carry on.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-24-2011 at 10:14 PM.

  10. #40
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    I beg to differ; John is way better than me in arguing with a proud card carrying, inflexible, rigid, leftist idealogue.

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