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Thread: Peter Schiff Wildly Wrong

  1. #1
    Havakasha is offline

    Peter Schiff Wildly Wrong

    Peter Schiff is the guy Siriuslylong keeps TRYING to defend.
    Maybe he should read the following book which takes on Peter Schiff among others
    and demonstrates how wrong many of their predictions have been.

    No More Stupid Forecasts!
    By Michael Edesess
    July 5, 2011

    "Successes on the front page, failures in the back
    No one escapes unscathed from Gardner’s review. Peter Schiff, for example, who has been lionized for having insistently predicted the financial crisis, is shown to have made many other forecasts that were dead wrong — including predictions of crises that didn’t happen."

    Eat, Drink, & Be Merry, for Tomorrow We (Might) Die, March 20, 2011
    by William Holmes.

    Gardner's "Future Babble" is a much needed antitode to the endless stream of nonsense that we hear from pundits who claim to be able to predict the future. Broadly speaking, Gardner distinguishes between two types of experts: Hedgehogs, who know a given subject extremely well, are very confident about their predictions and are almost always wrong, often spectacularly so; and Foxes, whose opinions about the future recognize the difficulties and complexity of forecasting and are nuanced accordingly. The Foxes are only a bit more apt to be on target than the Hedgehogs, but they will at least acknowledge their errors, recognize the limitations of their art and adjust their opinions to account for new facts. They are also routinley ignored because they are boring.

    Unfortunately, people crave certainty, so they lionize experts who make bold, articulate predictions about what will happen five, ten, fifteen, even fifty years from now, a proposition that is inherently suspect when you consider that chaos theory shows that even small changes in initial assumptions will dramatically change long-term outcomes. Fortunately for the experts and their livelihood, listeners do an incredibly poor job of holding experts accountable for their gross errors. We remember the rare hits and ignore the many, many misses, a point that Gardner illustrates elelgantly and repeatedly.

    With wit and broad knowledge of his subjects, Gardner skewers numerous still famous "experts" who have routinely been wrong about things like the price of oil, the scarcity or abundance of commodities, population growth, Y2K, the collapse or persistence of the Soviet Union, and a host of other problems. He also explains the psychological reasons--confirmation bias, negativity bias, anchoring bias, hindsight bias, optimism bias, and even "bias bias"--that enables experts to maintain their self-confidence despite their manifest errors, and that causes the rest of us to keep hanging on their every word despite the fact that they are usually wrong. We are drawn to those who are "often in error, but never in doubt" rather than those who recognize that predictions are very hard to make, especially about the future.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 07-19-2011 at 11:49 PM.

  2. #2
    Havakasha is offline
    I can wait to see if this prediction comes true. lol

    Peter Schiff predicts DOW either 1400 or Gold $12,000 an ounce

    FEBRUARY 28, 2011 COMMENTS (35)
    Just caught Fast Money right now and Peter Schiff happened to be on. While I was with him a little bit about the concerns over commodity prices, dollar and future inflation, he then has to go and make a wacky prediction. He predicts that within 1-3 years the DOW will be worth 1 ounce of gold. So, as of this moment DOW will hit 1400ish, or gold $12,000ish an ounce.

    He's starting to remind me of Alstry.

  3. #3
    Havakasha is offline
    From Wikipedia:

    In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years,[37] until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[38] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[39] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.

  4. #4
    Havakasha is offline
    http://investingcaffeine.com/2009/09...as-no-clothes/

    12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
    Wrong about hyperinflation
    Wrong about the dollar
    Wrong about commodities except for gold
    Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
    Wrong about foreign equities
    Wrong in timing
    Wrong in risk management
    Wrong in buy and hold thesis
    Wrong on decoupling
    Wrong on China
    Wrong on US treasuries
    Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

  5. #5
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_z5dZbgTDM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpIL2...eature=related

    It's good that you've done some research. You'll learn new and different things and be better off in the long run. You are welcome in advance.

  6. #6
    Havakasha is offline
    And im sure you have learned some things about one of your favorite economic people.
    So tell us all what you think of his prediction for the next 1 to 3 years that the Dow will either
    get to 1,400 or gold will go to $12,000.
    That is a very unprofessional and typical doomsday prediction dont you think?
    Mr. Schiff is just another in a long list of people who throws a TON of predictions up against
    the wall and when a few come true talks only about those few he quessed right on.
    Its kind of pathetic that you still havent acknowledged just how wrong he has been on so many things.
    But then i quess i shouldnt be suprised. i mean you are the guy who also said among other things
    that President Obama wasnt interest in budget cutting. LOL.

    And this is just for 2008.
    http://investingcaffeine.com/2009/09...as-no-clothes/

    12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
    Wrong about hyperinflation
    Wrong about the dollar
    Wrong about commodities except for gold
    Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
    Wrong about foreign equities
    Wrong in timing
    Wrong in risk management
    Wrong in buy and hold thesis
    Wrong on decoupling
    Wrong on China
    Wrong on US treasuries
    Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic
    Last edited by Havakasha; 07-20-2011 at 10:12 AM.

  7. #7
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    If you think Schiff is bad, listen to this guy. You might even agree with some of his comments, yet disagree with others. The real question that concerns you is if he is republican or democratic; then you can "formulate" your opinion lol.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBErF2HWEh8

  8. #8
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    And by the way, there was no guess in predicting the housing bubble would burst and that debt would overwhelm many American. Not only did he correctly "guess" the event would occur; he correctly "guessed" the cause. Go back and listen to yourself.

    I'll throw you a bone. Lord knows you're ugly enough to eat one. His "predictions" on gold and the Dow are extreme. I certainly don't want to see that.

  9. #9
    Havakasha is offline
    I prefer to let the facts do my talking. Lord knows its clearly tough for you to face them
    since he adheres to your beloved "Austrian" school of economics. I understand that its a little embarassing to you. Sorry.

    http://investingcaffeine.com/2009/09...as-no-clothes/

    12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
    Wrong about hyperinflation
    Wrong about the dollar
    Wrong about commodities except for gold
    Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
    Wrong about foreign equities
    Wrong in timing
    Wrong in risk management
    Wrong in buy and hold thesis
    Wrong on decoupling
    Wrong on China
    Wrong on US treasuries
    Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic



    Look below to see what the following comments are referring to:

    I didnt ask if you "dont want to see that". I ask if you think its absurd and irresponsible to make such predictions.
    I wonder what he will say when they dont come to frution? Probably the same thing he said about his predictions that hyperinflation would occur in 2011 in the U.S., that the stock market would COLLAPSE in Jan. 2011, and that 10 year bond rates would rise to 5 and even 6%.
    What was it he exactly said again about those WILDLY WRONG predicitons? LMFAO.

    "Just caught Fast Money right now and Peter Schiff happened to be on. While I was with him a little bit about the concerns over commodity prices, dollar and future inflation, he then has to go and make a wacky prediction. He predicts that within 1-3 years the DOW will be worth 1 ounce of gold. So, as of this moment DOW will hit 1400ish, or gold $12,000ish an ounce."

  10. #10
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    I don't give a shit what you ask douchebag. What is absurd and irresponsible is people like you trying to change America through your "progressive" idealogy.

    I have to go now, but thanks for the entertainment. It's always fun.

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