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Thread: Siri Stock Thread Feb 2011

  1. #81
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    What's up my friend... you rang? lol
    Hi Dave . . was just hoping to see what your charts were saying going into the Siri conference call . . . I couldn't get a good feel from the newsflow . . most of which I figured might be baked-in to the technicals . .

    Anyway, based on the last 2 days, I think you would have had to pull up a "Mr. Do's Wild Ride Chart" to nail this swing.

    Give us an update on your tournament action as well . . I've been watching the Rutgers squad pretty closely this year . . their coach is a local guy and they are gaining national attention (you can watch some of the matches on their website; check out Scott Winston)


    Glad to see you back posting!

    Please feel free to add to the pre-ipo Groupon due diligence thread . . .
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-17-2011 at 12:14 AM.

  2. #82
    sxminvestor is offline
    I think this may relate to the suits brought by a few states with their rteention tactics with customer service.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    hmmmmm . . . anybody know what this relates to?

    "On the G&A front, you should really think of it as litigation spending. We've got -- as we've disclosed before, we've got some suits out there that we are actively pursuing, and we're hopeful of resolving those in the course of this year and seeing G&A come back down."

    David Frear
    2/15/11 CC

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda

  3. #83
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Hi Dave . . was just hoping to see what your charts were saying going into the Siri conference call . . . I couldn't get a good feel from the newsflow . . most of which I figured might be baked-in to the technicals . .

    Anyway, based on the last 2 days, I think you would have had to pull up a "Mr. Do's Wild Ride Chart" to nail this swing.

    Give us an update on your tournament action as well . . I've been watching the Rutgers squad pretty closely this year . . their coach is a local guy and they are gaining national attention (you can watch some of the matches on their website; check out Scott Winston)


    Glad to see you back posting!

    Please feel free to add to the pre-ipo Groupon due diligence thread . . .
    Lol, I don't really look at the SIRI charts much anymore... I have a position, but my shares were essentially free from the first swing trade I did where I bought, sold, then rebought at about the same price I started... so now the price is up there so high now, I don't look unless my buddy emails me and asks about it. But with TA, there's certain setups, and things you can see, and it's all kind of like probabilities... there's only certain times, where I can say... in the next couple days, it should hit this price and reverse... other times, I don't have a comment, cause it's day to day action that you can't map anything too...

    That said, I can't really help on the groupon due diligence thing, because I only use TA to trade. I don't take anything else really into consideration... I have a scanner I made that I run, it outputs a bunch of charts, I look for certain setups, then go in if I like the setup... we'll that and I have a single market direction setup I use too, so I only go long if that thing says to go long.. or just go in a couple of trades, or with less money if things aren't right, or go short. About the only non-TA I do is, if I think there is time, I will quickly glance at yahoo finance to see if there is a story to go with the trade, and also quickly glance at when the next earnings will be, just to make sure I'm not holding anything over an earnings announcement.

    I have no idea how anyone trades by looking up stuff like you guys do. When and where to place an order based on news and EBIDTA or whatever it is is beyond me, lol.

    I got the brown belt a little while back in brazilian jiu jitsu... pretty rough cause I'm in my middle 40's and there aren't a whole lot of old guys at that level.. I got second at the pan american championships, where I beat an instructor from another school, then got darce'd (choked) in the finals, lol. Since there aren't many old guys, at smaller tournaments, they just pool all brown belts together, regardless of age or weight, so I had the opportunity to fight the adult (as in half my age) world champ a while ago. He killed me.

    Once the groupon thing has a little chart history, maybe I can glance at it.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  4. #84
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    C://File Backup

    While my post to Spencer's recent news story is awaiting moderation, I have taken the liberty of copying it here as a back-up . . . in the unfortunate event that something should accidently happen to it prior to being approved by the moderator, I would not want it to be permanently lost.


    [COLOR="purple"][B]sirius roadkill says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    February 22, 2011 at 10:23 pm


    Spencer Osborne:

    “What many fail to realize is that the new royalty deals make it more beneficial for Internet Radio services to become subscription based. That is exactly the type of moves Pandora and Slacker have already shifted to.”



    It would be helpful if we dealt with the facts . . .

    “The basic Pandora service is free, with most of its revenue coming from advertising . . . 86% of Pandora’s revenue came from advertising in its fiscal year just completed Jan. 31.”

    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...dora-ipo_N.htm


    “We think that there is an awful lot of people who like the, Slacker, Pandora, Last.fm, iheart services because it’s free. Nothing is really free because the way they make their money is they make you listen to commercials and a lot of that IP content as they get and try to get more and more revenue are going to be running more and more commercials. And again, we like our business model, which is principally subscription driven as compared to the model of where you’re offering service for free and running commercials, that sounds an awful lot like Terrestrial Radio.”

    Mel Karmazin, 2/15/11 Conference Call

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-22-2011 at 11:48 PM.

  5. #85
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Why duplicate the content?

    The only "moderator" on the website is me and I dont delete anything EXCEPT for duplicate posts. Often times members post the same thing 2 or 3 times because either they don't think it went through, or they clicked submit twice, or they fail to understand the moderation process.

    There is also an off chance that I might delete a comment when the majority of the text is vulgar language of no value... and I mean ZERO value. It's usually something like Howard Stern is a... with 20 swears in a row. I mean, one or two and I leave it but, 20+? That is gratuitous.

    BTW your links are broken.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  6. #86
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Tyler Savery's Internet Radio Blog

    http://siriusbuzz.com/spotify-raises...-s.php#respond

    just finished reading the latest installment of Tyler's Internet Radio Blog on the main page . . . I wonder why he never discusses TSL? . . . must not be that important I guess.

    oh well . . . dyodd

  7. #87
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    It would be helpful if we dealt with the facts . . .

    “The basic Pandora service is free, with most of its revenue coming from advertising . . . 86% of Pandora’s revenue came from advertising in its fiscal year just completed Jan. 31.”
    Spencer does not dispute that fact. He simply says they are shifting... he is correct. That is a fact. At one point Pandora had no premium option, now they do.

    Also, who is to say that fact can't change over time? If people no longer have the ad supported option, what will they do? I use to get free internet back in the day, they no longer offer that so, I pay.

    Where did the other 14% come from? Premium users? I thought they only had a very small handful of premium users? Does that mean if they double their tiny subscriber base they will have a substantial percentage coming from paying users? I want to see their books!
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  8. #88
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    just finished reading the latest installment of Tyler's Internet Radio Blog on the main page
    Would it be better if we put our heads in the sand and never covered the rest of radio? I am honestly asking. I think that would be foolish. By covering Sirius XM both Spencer and I come across a lot of related information that is worth discussing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    I wonder why he never discusses TSL? . . . must not be that important I guess.
    If we are going to talk about TSL we have to talk about 5x as many users as Sirius XM and a higher mobile penetration. You cant only have part of the story. The new thing in the forum is to yell about TSL but that is only one tiny metric that can change over time. Of course average listening is going to be low when you are adding millions of new users every month. I wish Sirius XM had a lower TSL and more paying customers! TSL alone means nothing. If you were comparing Sirius and XM (pre merger) THAN TSL would mean something. Because at least then, you would be comparing apples to apples.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  9. #89
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Spencer does not dispute that fact. He simply says they are shifting... he is correct.!
    "That is exactly the type of moves Pandora and Slacker have already shifted to.

    sorry Charlie (or should I say Edgar Bergen) . . . misleading

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Also, who is to say that fact can't change over time?
    speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    If people no longer have the ad supported option, what will they do?
    listen to terrestrial

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    I use to get free internet back in the day, they no longer offer that so, I pay.
    Tell us about your other options? Go ahead . . . we'll wait.


    p.s. Al Gore couldn't hook you up? (oblique shot at Lloyd to see if he's paying attention)

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    I want to see their books!
    well said!

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Would it be better if we put our heads in the sand and never covered the rest of radio?
    Personally, I enjoy your articles . . your perspective tends to be more on the technical side and is usually informative.

    Tyler's take is from the investment side and tends to be more of an opinion piece. People have differing opinions. He's a big boy and can take care of himself.

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    If we are going to talk about TSL we have to talk about 5x as many users as Sirius XM and a higher mobile penetration. You cant only have part of the story. The new thing in the forum is to yell about TSL but that is only one tiny metric that can change over time. Of course average listening is going to be low when you are adding millions of new users every month. I wish Sirius XM had a lower TSL and more paying customers! TSL alone means nothing. If you were comparing Sirius and XM (pre merger) THAN TSL would mean something. Because at least then, you would be comparing apples to apples.
    The purpose of the TSL discussion is not to compare Sirius XM to Pandora or other Internet Radio providers. Sirius XM is a subscription business; Pandora is an advertising business.

    The purpose of the TSL discussion is to compare Pandora to itself . . as smart phone penetration has increased, Pandora TSL has continued to decline. That is an indisputable fact that has been omitted from any of Tyler's reporting. Declining TSL is a difficult proposition for a company whose revenue is derived principally from advertising.

    Is some of the decline due to the "scaling of the business?" Could be, but the fact remains that TSL is declining and readers of Tyler's reports deserve something better than cherry-picked facts.

  10. #90
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    "That is exactly the type of moves Pandora and Slacker have already shifted to.”

    sorry Charlie (or should I say Edgar Bergen) . . . misleading
    I disagree. Pandora did not have a premium option, now they do. That is a shift they already made. How is it not?



    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    speculation
    So, are you saying it will stay the same? It will change one way or the other.



    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    listen to terrestrial
    I doubt that. They are more likely to listen to Sirius XM, or anther online service. People who are listening to Pandora do not want Terrestrial. They might want Rhapsody or iTunes but, they are not looking for terrestrial radio.



    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Tell us about your other options? Go ahead . . . we'll wait.
    What do you mean? I had plenty of options... Dial up, DSL, cable, satellite, etc.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Tyler's take is from the investment side and tends to be more of an opinion piece. People have differing opinions. He's a big boy and can take care of himself.
    I dont doubt it. I was just asking if we should shy away from anything that wasnt directly under a Sirius XM press release. People do have differing opinions and there is nothing wrong with that. Personally, I happen to think Sirius XM is not immune from from other audio entertainment.



    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    The purpose of the TSL discussion is not to compare Sirius XM to Pandora or other Internet Radio providers. Sirius XM is a subscription business; Pandora is an advertising business.
    Why then has Pandora added a premium subscription offering? Are you suggesting they would rather those subscribers not pay and instead hear ads?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    The purpose of the TSL discussion is to compare Pandora to itself . . as smart phone penetration has increased, Pandora TSL has continued to decline. That is an indisputable fact that has been omitted from any of Tyler's reporting. Declining TSL is a difficult proposition for a company whose revenue is derived principally from advertising.
    What if tomorrow they say their online application is $3 per month just like last.fm did? Make no mistake about it, Pandora will suck as many users in as possible and then suddenly flip the switch one day.

    TSL as you describe it is misleading. TSL has declined because people are downloading a free application millions of times over, listening to a couple of songs, and then going about their day. Currently the majority of the mobile market isn't listening on their phones all day long...YET. Not to mention you have to weed out all of the trial listeners that simply walked away. When you talk about tens of millions of users, there are millions who screwed up that TSL metric. Until someone (or Pandora) weeds out the fluff (inactive accounts) from the data, I dont care and neither should anyone else. What I want to know is the TSL of active users and then I want to know what percentage of their users are active.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Is some of the decline due to the "scaling of the business?" Could be, but the fact remains that TSL is declining and readers of Tyler's reports deserve something better than cherry-picked facts.
    TSL is your cherry picked fact!

    Would you want Spencer to to mention TSL if it meant mentioning Pandora's alarming growth rate and number of apps downloaded per day? Honestly, I'm asking.

    BTW, the average user here has no friggin clue what TSL is or what to make of it.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

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