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Thread: Siri Stock Thread Feb 2011

  1. #71
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Mel Karmazin

    "I think date for Liberty is March of 2012, when that gets triggered. And regarding what exactly we're going to do, obviously, that will be a board decision. We have already had a discussion at the board level about what we should do with our free cash flow. No determination has been made. Historically, I've always believed that a share buyback is a more tax efficient way of returning capital to shareholders as compared to a dividend. But clearly, that's not anything that has been determined. We certainly have not heard anything specific from liberty about their interest in having less ownership in the company. So certainly, from where I'm sitting today, we are not thinking about using the free cash flow to buy in Liberty shares as much as we might be thinking about using it for our public float."

    2/15/11 CC

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-15-2011 at 09:51 PM.

  2. #72
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    Barton Crockett - Lazard Capital Markets LLC

    "And then switching gears a little bit, given that we are right here on the cusp of Pandora's IPO filing, Tyler Savery was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your ability to include a Pandora style feature in satellite radio? There has been some discussions from various sources about patents. Is this a feature that -- the ability to select personalized music stream online, is that something you could include within satellite radio? Is that something that you think makes sense? Is it technologically feasible to do?"


    Mel Karmazin

    "Certainly, without speaking to specifically to Pandora, there is an awful lot of IP audio content that's out there and virtually all of them have a music recommendation engine or algorithms that enable you to sort of target a little bit more your channels. Most of those companies today, when you pick a channel that you want, are limited by the number of plays you have from a single artist because of the digital royalty act. So, we think that our channels, curated channels, are something that is very desirable to the consumer if you take a look at our time spent listening, which we do and we compare it to the time spent listening of a lot of the IP channels, we see a greater satisfaction from our content. But having said that, certainly, there is nothing that would preclude us from doing what you said, in an IP part of the distribution that we do to consumers. Clearly, if, in fact it was something that we believed that our subscribers would want, we would absolutely do that. We think that there is an awful lot of people who like the, Slacker, Pandora, Last.fm, iheart services because it's free. Nothing is really free because the way they make their money is they make you listen to commercials and a lot of that IP content as they get and try to get more and more revenue are going to be running more and more commercials. And again, we like our business model, which is principally subscription driven as compared to the model of where you're offering service for free and running commercials, so go tell Tyler Savery that that sounds an awful lot like Terrestrial Radio."



    Disclosure: I took a few liberties with the above quotes . . bold/italics.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-15-2011 at 09:51 PM.

  3. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    SRK - do you think Mel is sandbagging 2011 guidence? It appears that "the street" has latched onto this bit of news.
    David Gober - Morgan Stanley

    "One on the top line and one on the cost structure. In terms of the subscriber guidance, [indiscernible] a little bit conservative and I know you guys have been conservative in the past. Particularly, last year the initial guidance I think was 500,000 sub-adds so clearly -- there could be upside. But just curious in terms of the inputs there what you guys are assuming in terms of SAR and how do we think about -- I know you guys have mentioned that auto trends should be better and conversion rates and churn should be relatively stable. But I would think that at the end of the day, that should result in a higher net ad number rather than a flat one. I'm just curious if there's anything that I'm missing there in terms of the math?"

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda


    Mel Karmazin

    "You are not missing anything at all. I think it just is really us going in and not really knowing enough about how many cars that are going to be sold. We've tracked all of the organizations that provide guidance on SAR , including our partners who all do it. And today, they seem to be inching up every single day. I get a revised SAR number. Steve Rattner was on CNBC this morning, talking about how he believes that the number will be over 13 in this year and 14 in 2014. He is the car czar, ex-car czar, so he might know something about it. But we certainly are thinking of a SAR number that is around the mean number today, which is about the 12.5 million and that's where the numbers seem to fall. You should assume that if, in fact, the car sales are greater than that, then our subscriber numbers will grow. That there is nothing we’re signaling at all. All we're doing, is saying it's early in the year, we don't know exactly what's going to happen on the car level. We still think that the number is around 15 million, which is the replacement number of cars that should be sold to just replace the cars on the road. So we believe that there is upside, not just in 2011, but in subsequent years in so far as car sales go. And our penetration level has been picking up a little bit actually, so we're in the low 60% and we don't see that changing. Higher car sales, higher penetration, good conversion would get us to a different subscriber number but we don't have the confidence today to give you that number."
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-16-2011 at 06:17 PM.

  4. #74
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    hmmmmm . . . anybody know what this relates to?

    "On the G&A front, you should really think of it as litigation spending. We've got -- as we've disclosed before, we've got some suits out there that we are actively pursuing, and we're hopeful of resolving those in the course of this year and seeing G&A come back down."

    David Frear
    2/15/11 CC

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2529...ipt?part=qanda
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-15-2011 at 09:50 PM.

  5. #75
    airman is offline
    I see more and more price targets above $2 today. My target is $2.08 for next quarter and $2.35 for the year.

  6. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by airman View Post
    I see more and more price targets above $2 today. My target is $2.08 for next quarter and $2.35 for the year.
    you have to wonder how RBC can justify keeping David Bank on the payroll

  7. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    I anticipate a Tyler Savery recap which will focus on increasing churn, lack of innovation and lost opportunity . . . as that is his modus operandi.
    I stand corrected . . Tyler has correctly identified the most important take-away from the CC . . FCF.

    http://siriusbuzz.com/sirius-xm-reco...h.php#comments

    As to what they will do with it, Tyler's assumption that they will invest in growth contradicts what Mel actually said:

    "Long term, we expect to maintain some debt leverage at SiriusXM. As a subscription based business, we can probably tolerate a significant amount of leverage but just assume we keep leverage at a modest level like 3x adjusted EBITDA. In that case, we clearly would not be diverting much of the future cash generation toward reducing debt. In fact, we might more likely increase gross indebtedness overtime as we continue to grow the business."

    "So will we buy assets with our excess cash? Perhaps, but we haven't seen anything yet that's worthy of any meaningful investment or acquisition. Then will we return capital to shareholders, although I certainly can't quantify the amount or the timing for this, I think it is reasonable to expect that the company will return capital to shareholders over time."

    Mel K
    2/15/11 CC

    As to how they will do that:

    "So certainly, from where I'm sitting today, we are not thinking about using the free cash flow to buy in Liberty shares as much as we might be thinking about using it for our public float."

    Mel K
    2/15/11 CC
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-16-2011 at 03:29 PM.

  8. #78
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    JANCO Partners Upgrades Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) to Buy, Price Target $2.10

    JANCO Partners upgraded shares of Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) to a Buy rating from their previous rating of Accumulate as they posted solid 4Q results. The company experienced a revenue growth of 9% to $736 million for the quarter while their EBITDA grew 25% to $144 million. The number of subscribers also increased by 328,789 to a total of 20.2 million.

  9. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by airman View Post
    I see more and more price targets above $2 today. My target is $2.08 for next quarter and $2.35 for the year.
    Yeah, I was watching them fly across Satelicious today. Usually there are a few stories per day but today, they were coming every few minutes.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  10. #80
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    JANCO Partners Upgrades Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) to Buy, Price Target $2.10

    JANCO Partners upgraded shares of Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) to a Buy rating from their previous rating of Accumulate as they posted solid 4Q results. The company experienced a revenue growth of 9% to $736 million for the quarter while their EBITDA grew 25% to $144 million. The number of subscribers also increased by 328,789 to a total of 20.2 million.
    What's up my friend... you rang? lol
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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