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Thread: Expect More than 100 hybrid and EV Models by 2015

  1. #1
    Havakasha is offline
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    Expect More than 100 hybrid and EV Models by 2015

    This is so you understand just how big a dumbass twit John the Neanderthal is.

    Expert: Expect More Than 100 Hybrid and EV Models in U.S. by 2015

    PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 10, 2010

    The one consistent truth in automotive sales forecasting is that all forecasts are wrong. The size of the market for emerging technologies, like hybrids and electric cars, is even trickier to forecast. That’s partly because car companies, governments, and environmentalists like to publish and promote rosy scenarios based on market goals, rather than concrete plans.


    But when you take a hard look at concrete plans for specific electric-drive vehicles in the next five years, you see a burgeoning market with more than 50 conventional hybrids, more than 30 pure electric cars, nearly 20 plug-in hybrids, and a handful of fuel cell vehicles. Those numbers come from Alan Baum, a Michigan-based auto industry analyst who has been running auto market forecasts since the 1980s.

    “My forecast is model-by-model and bottom up. Most of the other forecasts are based on assumptions, and work top down,” Baum said. “It’s not that I’m smarter. It’s an outgrowth of my work on the broad automotive market for a long time.” Baum, who recently left The Planning Edge to form his own market analysis firm, also looks at supplier orders, plant capacity, volume planning, and macroeconomic conditions such fuel prices, interest rates, and government regulations.

    “In the past few years, major automakers have changed their strategy. They used to fight fuel efficiency regulations,” Baum said. “Now, as the numbers go up and time marches on, automakers are saying, ‘Look at the list of models. We’re doing our part. We’re bringing a raft of new vehicles and technologies.'”

    PluginCars.com

    We keep track of the growing list of electric cars and plug-in hybrids at our sister site. PluginCars.com also has news and community forums.

    Baum is tracking a whopping 108 electric-drive vehicles by model year 2015. That’s up from 22 grid-free hybrids and one electric car, the Tesla Roadster, in production today. There will be 27 new model introductions for the model year 2011 alone—effectively doubling the number of hybrids and plug-ins in a single year. Baum indicates that the 2011 U.S. line-up will add 13 conventional hybrids, 3 plug-in hybrids, and 11 battery electric cars. By the model year 2015, the new car market will have 108 electric-drive models. Nearly half of them will be conventional hybrids, but there will also be 18 plug-in hybrids, 32 EVs, and 6 fuel-cell electric cars. Many of these models have been announced, but just as many have not yet been unveiled.

    Inflection Point

    Baum acknowledges that the U.S. hybrid market has been flat—approximately 2.5 percent of the new car market—for the past couple of years. That’s largely due to a sluggish economy and low gas prices. But things are about to change, according to Baum.

    When you combine government incentives, rising fuel economy requirements, and automakers eager to provide hybrids and EVs to a group of consumers “salivating for the product,” the market will grow. “We got ourselves an inflection point,” Baum said. “Getting out of the 2 percent market range, and into the 4s or 5s is a big deal. The planets are aligned for this.”

    Growth of the U.S. market to 4 or 5 percent—as much as 900,00 hybrids and EVs per year by 2015—could pave the way for even bigger growth in a subsequent phase. In fact, fuel economy regulations expected for the period between 2017 to 2025 essentially will require a massive shift to hybrids, supported by a growing number of electric cars—which are likely to give carmakers extra credits to meet those higher standards.

    Conventional Hybrids Will See Biggest Growth

    Baum groups conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars into a single “electric vehicle forecast." He sees the biggest growth in conventional hybrids, and believes that pure electric cars will only strengthen the market for standard hybrids. “Consumers will look at EVs and plug-in hybrids and say, ‘That’s kind of out there. If that works, then maybe it’s time for a conventional hybrid, available in many more models, and with no need to worry about range or infrastructure.'”

    In addition, Baum believes that General Motors and Nissan will make sure that this year’s introduction of the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF will be a success—creating even more consumer confidence in the whole market for electric-drive vehicles.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 12-02-2010 at 12:19 PM.

  2. #2
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    Nissan Leaf (all electric car) won for BEST EUROPEAN CAR/2011

    Nissan LEAF Wins European Car of the Year
    by Timothy B. Hurst on November 29, 2010

    Not to be outdone by the Chevy Volt, which is fresh off winning Car of the Year and Green Car of the Year awards in the U.S., the all-electric Nissan LEAF has been named the European Car of the Year.

    This is not only the first time in its 47-year history that a fully electric car has won the prestigious award, it is the first time an all-electric car has even made it into the final round.

    "This award recognizes the pioneering zero-emission Nissan LEAF as competitive to conventional cars in terms of safety, performance, spaciousness and handling," Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.'s President and CEO Carlos Ghosn said.

    Scoring 257 points from a jury of 58, the LEAF narrowly edged out the Alfa Romeo Giulietta and the Opel/Vauxhall Meriva, which received 248 points and 244 points respectively. Other finalists included the CitroŽn C3/DS3, the Dacia Duster, Ford C-Max/Grand C-Max, and the Volvo S60/V60.

    Nissan has won the Car of the Year before, but it's been a while. In 1993, the UK-built Nissan Micra became the first car from a Japanese automaker to win the award.

    "In spite of the lack of a large recharging network and the limited range, the LEAF represents a technical and commercial bet that might otherwise satisfy many potential consumers, especially where public incentives will come to reduce the paying price," Car of the Year officials said.

    The LEAF, which last week received a 99 miles-per-gallon equivalency rating by the EPA, has a sticker price of $32,780, but state and federal incentives can reduce the price by $10,000 or more in some parts of the country.

    "With three other electric vehicles in the pipeline from Nissan - and with the imminent market introduction of four additional electric vehicles from our Alliance partner Renault - Nissan LEAF represents a significant first step toward a zero-emission future," Nissan's Ghosn said.

    In Japan and the United States, deliveries for the LEAF begin this December. In Europe, deliveries start in early 2011 to Portugal, the Republic of Ireland, the UK and the Netherlands.

    Want a LEAF? You'll most likely have to wait. Even though a single vehicle has yet to arrive in dealer showrooms in the U.S., the 2011 Nissan LEAF is already sold out.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-29-2010 at 08:32 PM.

  3. #3
    Havakasha is offline
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    Chevrolet Volt wins Motor Trends CAR OF THE YEAR for 2011

    http://www.motortrend.com/oftheyear/...#ixzz16iDQSLE9
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-29-2010 at 05:46 PM.

  4. #4
    Havakasha is offline
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    My predicition is that john will ignore the above facts and stick to his rigid
    ideological position.

  5. #5
    Havakasha is offline
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    You've been awfully quiet on this S&L. Wonder why? LOL.

  6. #6
    Havakasha is offline
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    I have been wondering all this time if S&L secretly agrees with John?
    Come on S&L take a stand for once.

  7. #7
    Havakasha is offline
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    Still waiting for S&L to gives us his opinion. Tick tock.

  8. #8
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    I'm glad for it. We have a unique plastic product used to encase batteries. It's a growth opporunity for my company.

    Though I do find it funny that after John goes AWOL you then focus your attn to me. Were you on the debate team?

  9. #9
    Havakasha is offline
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    When it comes down to it, John is a pure ideologue and a liar to boot.
    When you catch him in lies, he runs, denies or avoids.

    So whats the reason for your silence on the issue when it impacts your
    business? Why so silent when John is around?

    So you dont agree with him that hybrids, plug-ins, and electrics
    "will never be technologically or economically viable."?
    Last edited by Havakasha; 12-03-2010 at 02:14 PM.

  10. #10
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Look, there are many "discussions" between you and John that I'm simply not interested in - this being one of them. Should I be in the market for a new car, I certainly would evaluate a hybrid (even though I haven't a clue how they work, what they cost or how to maintain them).

    As for the technology, I can't predict the future. This one is for you and John. Can I just sit on the sidelines and enjoy the show?

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