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Thread: I just have to, "I told you so"

  1. #1
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    I just have to, "I told you so"

    "Obama Bolsters U.S. Hybrid Automobile Sales in Waning Consumer Market"

    "The government is boosting investment in a technology that has failed to win broad acceptance after more than a decade in the marketplace. Consumer sales of hybrids are headed for their third consecutive yearly decline. Government agencies and businesses have said they also will purchase all-electric models being introduced by automakers including GM."

    “At some point, the reality is that for this technology to be accepted, it needs to be done without a government crutch,” said Jeff Schuster, director of forecasting at J.D. Power & Associates in Troy, Michigan. “But without a huge gas-price increase or further government demand, the natural demand just isn’t to be there.”

    "Global sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric cars are projected to be 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million passenger vehicles projected to be sold this year, J.D. Power said in an Oct. 27 report. That may rise to 5.2 million units in 2020, according to the report.

    Not Cost Competitive"

    “The lesson learned is that it isn’t easy to make these vehicles mainstream,” said Brett Smith, who specializes in alternative propulsion vehicles at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “They are still not near the point where they are cost-competitive in the market.”


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...er-market.html

    Like I said this is exactly what would happen. Until they can make a hybrid or electric car that cost something even close (with the savings of gas included)to a normal cost of a car. Listen it does not take a whole lot of intelligence to figure out that if a Volt cost 40,000 and you can buy a comparable model for 20,000 that you will never use anything close to 20,000 dollars in gas. For those dumb twits, that means it is nowhere close to being economically viable.

    That also gos for a hybrid. While the cost difference is NOT 20,000 dollars it is 7,000 to 10,000 dollars and the fact is that because a hybrid uses much more gas then a (almost) totally electric car the cost still makes it TOTALLY noneconomical.

    Once again, "I told you so", LMFAO.

  2. #2
    Havakasha is offline
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    You forgot to add one more comment from J.D. Power's analysis.

    "What could change the outlook...." "CHINA. J.D. Power said."
    That is besides higher prices of gas.

    "China has the ability to move quickly, invest heavily in the development of one specific propulsion technology, and mandate fuel economy or emissions standards that could favor a particular technology or require a minimum sales penetration level for vehicles with a designated technology. Given the size and growth rate of the Chinese auto market, such a coordinated regulatory environment might allow Chinese companies to achieve economies of scale and drive down the cost of alternative-energy vehicles.

    Dont look now John but China is entering the hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric market. I think you better take back your comment that hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric cars " will NEVER
    be TECHNOLOGICALLY OR ECONOMICALLY VIABLE." LMFAO

    I think i read something as well about Tesla working with Toyota. Hmmm.

    Here again is that beauty of a quote from John.
    Hybrid, hybrid plug-in and electric cars "will 'NEVER' be TECHNOLOGICALLY or ECONOMICALLY viable". John, I hope you caught a glimpse of the auto show in LA? You're starting to see the beginning of the rollout of MULTIPLE hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric autos from ALL the car companies worldwide. In the next 10 to 20 years your statement will look downright stupid.

    Oh and how are those PURE fuel cell cars doing which you said were eventually going to take over the market, and were only "5 years behind hybrids". LOL. i couldnt even get you to put a year down as to WHEN THEY WOULD BE 1% OF ALL AUTO SALES. I think we all understand why.

    Werent you also the same guy who said i should not even bother to talk to you about the GM bailout until the American taxpayer had been paid back 50% of their loan. LMFAO. i sure hope you can count.

    P.S. i noticed you start by talking about the Volt and NOT the PRIUS to make your point about economic viability. A little too clever by half. Toyota will be rolling out approximately 6 new models of the Prius this coming year. I quess they are doing that because the car hasnt been selling well and customers arent satisfied LOL. Please go back to your cave (where the earth is getting cooler) you neanderthal you.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-25-2010 at 03:00 AM.

  3. #3
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    As for China, they are moving into natural gas or didn't you hear that. Second, leave it to you to miss what J.D. powers has changed from the last rticle I put up they have gone from saying hybrids "SHOULD" be 10% of global sales by 2020 to now saying "MAY BE" 10%. Ether way 10% in over 20 years time still sucks. Once again if SIRI/XMSR would have said they would be in 10% of cars in 20 years would anyone have invested in them???? Hell no.


    I dont take that back because in the 12 years hybrids have been out they have nothing to show for it. Everytime they extend the life of the battery they also increase the cost of the battery by almost to the same ratio.

    I dont have to look at anything except the facts like these:

    1) "Consumer sales of hybrids are headed for their third consecutive yearly decline."

    2) “At some point, the reality is that for this technology to be accepted, it needs to be done without a government crutch,” said Jeff Schuster, director of forecasting at J.D. Power & Associates in Troy, Michigan. “But without a huge gas-price increase or further government demand, the natural demand just isn’t to be there.”

    Did you get the last part there, here because you are a dumb twit let me seperate it for you, "the natural demand just isn’t to be there.”

    3) "The lesson learned is that it isn’t easy to make these vehicles mainstream,” said Brett Smith, who specializes in alternative propulsion vehicles at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “They are still not near the point where they are cost-competitive in the market.”

    Those comments come from both unbias and bias people. Even Brett Smith says, "they are NOT NEAR the point where they are COST COMPETITIVE in the market" and it has taken over 15 years to get to that "not near". He also shows just how bias he is because he says a "lesson learned" I say, holy shit you jackass if you had common sense and logic you would not have had to learn that lesson, you would have already KNOWN IT.


    God you make it to easy Havasucker to make you look stupid. You cant get passed the fact that these stats suck: Hybrids are still (AFTER 12 YEARS) only 2% of sales, they have declined for 3 consecutive years, that means sales have gone DOWN NOT up, after 12 years they are stil nowear near making them economically viable. Those are facts from experts on your side, by the way.

    So, Tesla has the same problem as the Volt does?????? IT COST TO MUCH TO MAKE IT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE.


    Dumbass you must have missed this again: "Consumer sales of hybrids are headed for their third consecutive yearly decline."

    While it is hard to go lower with sales in the low 2% range (yes you saw that right, just 2% after 12 years of already being out), the hybrid has managed it.

    That is true and GM borrowed a total of 45 billion and even with what the government got in the stock offering (13.6 billion) that only brings them to 22 billion ACTUALLY PAID BACK (you know, not paying them back from another government loan they just had not touched yet). While I can count it looks like you cant. You always seem to forget about the funds that were merely reshuffled. For me it is red and black. What is the TOTAL amount before bankruptcy and after. It is the TOTAL AMOUNT not piece meal. In your world I know that kind of logic seems to much for you to handle. In my world it does not matter how much and when the money was barrowed or if a loan was considerd lost after bankruptcy or not it is all considered money barrowed from the government and if they lost it after the backruptcy then that has to be considerd lost money, UNLESS or UNTIL the other investment makes up for the bad one.


    No you dumbass that is just the most recent boondoggle going on. It is still just as bad as hybrids that have taken over 12 years to get to the same point of being a waste of money as they have been for the last 12 years.

    The Prius is less then 1% of global sales and that is with MASSIVE government subsidies. Only a dumb twit would think at less then 1%, people are actually buying them and they are worth pushing. I would not invest in any tech that requires a government subsidy. The reason is simple, you never know HOW LONG THAT SUBSIDY WILL LAST. For the latest example of that just take a look at wind power. 12,000 of 14,000 wind turbines in CA. have been shut down and are now a waste of money.

  4. #4
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    Here an analysis that differs markedly from what J.D. Power and Associates and you say about hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and clean diesel cars. It remains to be seen who will be right in their estimates of alternative energy sales, but one thing is for sure and that is you are laughably wrong when you say that hybrid, hybrid plug-in and electrics " WILL NEVER BE TECHNOLOGICALLY OR ECONOMICALLY VIABLE".

    ELECTRIC VEHICLES TO REPRESENT A THIRD OF GLOBAL SALES BY 2020: Deloitte article.

    By IBTimes Staff Reporter | October 22, 2010 2:31 AM EDT
    Electric vehicles and "green" cars will represent up to a third of total global sales by 2020, according to a recent report from Deloitte's global manufacturing industry group.

    The report says that three technology trends that offer key areas for automakers are: powertrain technology and the move to electric vehicles, the shift from mechanics to electronics and low tech mobility.

    BYD E6 electric cars, used as a taxis in Shenzhen, are plugged in to charge at a taxi company's car park in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.

    China Deutsche Bank Germany Manufacturing Australia Consumer
    "The race for electric vehicles (EVs) is heating up," observes Dr. Martin Hoelz, global automotive industry group leader and partner with Deloitte Germany. "By 2020, EVs and other "green" cars will represent up to a third of total global sales in developed markets and up to 20 percent in urban areas of emerging markets."

    "But, government policies and regulations, driven by different factors such as stricter carbon emission standards to independence from foreign energy, will heavily influence the marketability of EVs and other technology innovations," Hoelz said.

    The analysis also said close to $44 billion in economic stimulus funds and other incentives are being directed towards the development of alternative fuel and advance technology vehicles.

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    "United States is leading in terms of economic stimulus and other government incentives with an estimate of US$27.4 billion directed towards alternative fuel technologies such as electric vehicles," the report said.

    "We expect that consumer demand for greener vehicles as well as new regulations will heavily influence the development and marketability of innovations in the automotive industry," the report said.

    Deutsche Bank estimated that global sales of electric, hybrid, and other alternative fuel and advance technology vehicles stood at 1 million in 2009 and could rise to 1.3 million in 2010.

    From an R&D and manufacturing perspective, countries such as the United States, Australia, China, and France are channeling investments towards R&D efforts.

    The United States Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program totaling $25 billion offers grants, loans to support the local development of advanced technology vehicles and associated components.

    Australia's Green Car Plan will invest AUD$1.3 billion towards innovation and design of more environmentally-friendly vehicles.

    In Germany, the government has set its sights to have one million EVs on the road by 2020. It is supporting this with a EUR 500 million investment towards development of batteries and analysis of how EVs can be introduced in certain regions of the country.

    The analysis shows that several countries are upping their game to manufacture alternative vehicles. With a view to facilitate the adoption of such vehicles, the motor industry will be keeping a close eye on the latest developments, the report said.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-26-2010 at 11:55 PM.

  5. #5
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    Here is a little info on the China altenative energy auto market.
    Somehow i dont think John knows a lot about the China auto market. LOL.

    An Update on China's Alternative Energy Vehicle Industry
    By Louis Schwartz, China Strategies, LLC | April 20, 2010 |

    Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote about China's tentative first steps to build an alternative energy transportation industry. Since then, China's car market has surpassed that of the United States, becoming the largest market in the world (in December 2009 vehicle sales in China exceeded 1 million units). The focus of future development is increasing the alternative energy car segment of that market.

    The pieces of the alternative energy vehicle industry puzzle that now are in place (or will be in place shortly) provide an increasingly complete picture of the future of alternative energy transportation in China. Not surprisingly, the Chinese are well along in constructing a robust alternative vehicle industry and the infrastructure to serve it. It is certain that that industry will become a force worldwide.

    Even if some Chinese automotive analysts’ modest estimates are to be accepted --- that in ten years time, the alternative vehicle segment of the Chinese vehicle market will only account for 10-20% of all sales --- it will be a huge market nevertheless. And as China continues its rapid adoption of wind, solar and hydroelectricity, electric vehicles increasingly will become the renewable transportation choice.

    The {Revitalization and Readjustment Program for the Automotive Industry}, which was issued on March 20, provides a three-year blueprint for the development of the Chinese alternative energy vehicle industry. The Automotive Industry Program anticipates that capacity to produce alternative energy vehicles (all electric, electric/hybrid, gas/hybrid and ethanol/methanol powered vehicles) will reach 500,000 units/year by 2011. The program anticipates that sales of alternative energy vehicles will account for approximately 5% to 10% of total vehicle sales in China in 2011. By 2012 the output value of alternative energy vehicles is expected to reach 500 billion Yuan [~US $75 billion].

    In addition to subsidies for the purchase of alternative energy vehicles, the Automotive Industry Program will support the establishment of model programs in large and mid-sized cities throughout China for the preferential purchase of alternative energy vehicles for public transportation (including taxis) and for vehicles used by government offices, health care, mail and other public facilities. The Automotive Industry Program also will support the development of charging stations within Chinese cities (a trend that the state-owned sector already is pursuing vigorously). The Chinese government anticipates investing some 10 billion Yuan [US $1.46 billion] in technological research and development in the industry in order to achieve world-class levels of market penetration, technology and manufacturing.

    The {Development Plan for Alternative Energy Vehicles}, which was expected to be issued by the end of March 2010, was delayed and will not be released until at least July, 2010. We know that the plan will include connection standards for electric vehicle recharging, subsidies to encourage alternative vehicle purchases by Chinese consumers and measures to encourage the development of a robust auto parts industry. (With respect to subsidies, there appears to be a consensus that any vehicle that conserves energy---all electric or hybrid vehicles and natural gas, ethanol, methanol or fuel cell-powered vehicles---will be eligible for a subsidy of between 3000 Yuan and 60,000 Yuan, approximately US $400 to $8,700).

    In China, industry is rapidly ramping up to build a large number of alternative energy vehicles. The ten most significant Chinese car manufacturers, including the China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd, Changan Automotive, Chery Automotive, Brilliance Automotive, Tianjin Qingyuan Automotive, BYD Auto, Geely Holding Group, and JAC Motors, all have projects underway to develop or expand capacity to build alternative energy vehicles.

    According to Miao Yu, the Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, who is regarded as one of the most authoritative voices in the Chinese government on the automotive industry, there are more than 40 Chinese companies that have alternative energy vehicles in production or under development.

    As one example, in March, the South Zhuzhou Electric Vehicle Research Institute Co., Ltd, a part of the publicly trade China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation Ltd. (SH 610766), and the Liaoning Zhuguang Automotive Group Joint Stock Co. entered into a joint venture agreement with the goal of building the largest alternative energy vehicle production center in China. When complete -- in approximately two years -- the joint venture company expects to have the capacity to build 10,000 cars/year and another 20,000 sets of alternative energy electronic drive systems and other key components for alternative energy vehicles.

    The infrastructure that will be required to support the alternative energy vehicle industry in China is being developed by some of the largest state-owned enterprises, including the State Grid Corporation, which is concentrating on building out electric vehicle recharging capacity; Sinopec, which is focusing on developing infrastructure for natural gas and hybrid vehicles; PetroChina, which is developing ethanol capacity and CNOOC, which is also concentrating on developing charging stations at existing gas stations. Asia Cassava Resources Holdings Limited (HK 00841), the largest exporter of dried cassava chips from Thailand to China, has become an important part of China’s ethanol supply chain. Among its customers is COFCO, the diversified food products company, whose businesses now include ethanol refining using cassava chips as the feedstock.

    The obstacles to the full-scale development of the Chinese alternative vehicle industry are tremendous market opportunities for Western companies who control key technologies, which are crucial to the industry. The relative paucity of intellectual property controlled by the Chinese alternative energy industry requires the Chinese to rely on foreign companies for battery and other key technologies.

    This is good news for U.S. companies, such as A123 Systems, a pioneer in lithium ion battery technology, who will benefit from the ramp up in alternative vehicle production in China. In December 2009, A123 Systems, shortly after its own IPO, entered into a joint venture with SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd, a publicly issued (SH 600104) Chinese automobile manufacturer to develop lithium ion batteries in China. As another example of the opportunities that the development of the Chinese alternative energy car industry affords U.S. companies, China presently does not have a domestic supplier of battery separators for electric vehicles—one of the key components of lithium batteries, which accounts for some 30% of the cost of each battery.

    Celgard, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Polypore International, Inc. (NYSE: PPO), which recently hosted President Obama at its North Carolina plant, and Exxon-Mobile Chemical are two U.S. companies in the microfiber battery separator industry that will benefit from the Chinese ramp up of electric vehicle production, much as American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC) has benefited from the explosive growth in China’s indigenous wind turbine industry.

    Lou Schwartz, a lawyer and China specialist who focuses his work on the energy and metals sectors in the People's Republic of China, is a frequent contributor to Renewable Energy World. Through China Strategies, LLC, Lou provides clients research and analysis, due diligence, merger and acquisition, private equity investment and other support for trade and investment in China's burgeoning energy and metals industries. Lou earned degrees in East Asian Studies from Michigan and Harvard and a J.D. from George Washington University. He can be reached at lou@chinastrategiesllc.com.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-27-2010 at 12:23 AM.

  6. #6
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    John's logic is pure illogic.
    Check this out.

    He talks about hybrids sales going down for the past 3 years. But quess what he leaves out? Yeah auto sales of all kinds worldwide have gone down during that same time frame. In case he hasnt noticed we have been living through a deep recession which started in 2007 under Bush.
    But he then he quotes J.D. Powers about hybrid sales going up to almost 10% by 2020. The dumbass doesnt get that means that they are predicting that hybrid sales will be increasing 5 fold in the next 10 years. That means sales will be INCREASING tremendously. SXM stock went down for some years (before the recent turnaround) Does it then follow it will continue to go down for the next 10? LMFAO. Its just plain silly to talk about the downward movement of hybrid sales for the past 3 years when the people you quote say those sales will be INCREASING 5 fold over the next 10. John is all smoke and mirrors.

    If you accept (and I dont ) the J.D. Power estimate of hybrid and alternative energy auto sales then 10% of 118 million cars is 18 million car sales PER YEAR. To say that "sucks" when you continually say that clean diesel, hybrid, plug-ins, and electric sales will "NEVER be economically and technologically viable" makes you the ULTIMATE DUMBASS.
    In addition i think we all know the "real" explosion in the move to alternative energy cars will occur from 2020 to 203O.

    He continually loves to throw in the mix that hybrids have been around for 12 years when he knows all too well that for most of those years only 1 or 2 models were out there for sale. Its only in the last year that ALL the car companies have quickly moved to manufacture hybrid, hybrid plug in and electric cars. The EXPLOSION in interest, investment, and manufacturing will
    grow exponentially especially in the years between 2020 and 2030 and thats why i always talk
    about the NEXT 2O years.

    John, you are not seriously trying to contend that the American taxpayers will not in a few short years get back most (if not all of their money on the GM investment. One of the only reasons we may not get back all of it is because the Govt wants to move quickly so as to be seen to be out of the auto business.) of their money? I didnt think so. LOL.
    You were wrong about your predictions about GM and as usual you use smoke and mirrors to avoid owning up to that fact.
    "The White House has said U.S. taxpayers are on track to recoup the full investment made by the administration and that it hopes to make substantial progress toward shedding the government's stake entirely by mid-to-late 2012."

    John either knows or he has made himself willfully ignorant of the fact that the Gas, Oil, Coal and Nuclear industries have gotten many BILLIONS (if not trillions) OF DOLLARS in subsidies over the years. Never seems to bother him. Silicon valley and the computing industry got subsidies to help them develop. Never heard him complain. Now that the govt's of the world give the alternative energy field subsidies as well he is up in arms. That is what we call a HYPOCRITE.

    "i would not invest in any tech that gets gov't subsidies". Boy how i would love to know John's
    stock portfolio over the past 10 to 20 years. I have a hunch he has probably invested in some
    industries that have indeed gotten govt subsidies.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-27-2010 at 02:14 AM.

  7. #7
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    Some more info for John the Neanderthal.

    Even 3% of 118 Million is Still A LOT

    One of the most common arguments I hear is that it took hybrid cars the better part of 10 years to capture roughly 2.5-3% of the total vehicle market share in the U.S. and, using that model, it will take at least a decade for electric cars to capture that much of their own market share. A recent opinion piece in Ward’s Auto proclaimed, “So, if after a decade, [hybrids] can capture only 2.5% of the market, it seems likely EVs will have a slower growth curve. That means the EV pie will get sliced mighty thin.”

    3% may not sound like much, but if we look at global statistics the picture gets better. In 2008 there were roughly 70 million vehicles sold in the world, this was down from the 79 million vehicles sold in 2007, but we’ve been hammered by a recession. Prior to 2008, the new vehicle market was growing by roughly 4% per year, with that percentage accelerating due to rapid growth in China and India. So let’s say the global new car market is around 80 million this year (2010) and we can conservatively say it will grow by 4% each year for the next decade. By 2020 there will be 118,000,000 cars sold per year. If 3% of those are EVs, that’s 3,450,000. Maybe I’m crazy, but I don’t think that a 3.5 million-vehicle-per-year market share is a losing proposition.

    Plus, between now and then a bunch of EVs will be sold. The first few years it may not be more than 0.1-1% of the market share, but after that it will start to ramp up quickly. Let’s say that by 2014 it’s 1%, by 2016 it’s 2%, and by 2020 it’s 3%. Using those numbers, between now and 2020 there will likely be at least 16,000,000 EVs sold worldwide. And that’s just using the same curve that hybrids saw. How anybody could see that as a gamble, I don’t know.

    But is 3% Market Share a Decade From Now a Realistic Figure?

    The early years of hybrids saw relatively little in the way of worldwide government support. A decade ago we weren’t thinking about climate change or the environment. At that point the idea of running out of oil seemed like the script of a fantasy movie and the thought that gas could get anywhere near $4 a gallon in the U.S. was a joke.

    For a long time, the only hybrid option was one car from Toyota. It’s only in the last few years that hybrids have started popping up all over the place and the hybrid market has been exploding. In fact, recent studies suggest that by 2020, the hybrid market share in the U.S. will be 20% of all new cars sold. If we extrapolate this to the rest of the world, it may not be 20% of all new cars sold, but it will be heck of a lot more than 3%… say 15% of all cars sold globally. That’s a growth of nearly 0.5% per year in hybrid market share over the next 10 years.

    So, what are the reasons for this surge in hybrid popularity? A hedge against rising gas prices? A growing awareness of the environmental effects of driving? The knowledge that we’ll run out of oil eventually? Government incentives? All of those things play a role. If hybrids were introduced today, you can be positive that it wouldn’t take 10 years for them to account for 3% of market share, it would only take a few years. Applying this new consumer awareness and heavy government incentivization to the acceptance of EVs, it is clear that they will be accepted much more quickly than hybrids were when they were introduced a decade ago. The idea that they will only capture 3% of worldwide market share by 2020 is ridiculous. I’d put that number closer to 7%… or about 8 million EVs sold in 2020.

    Clearly the American Consumer has Hybrids and Plug-ins on Their Minds

    As I reported yesterday, a new poll indicates that the vast majority of Americans think that EVs and Hybrids are the way of the future. They are taking environmental considerations into account far more than ever before when making new car choices. Look, even if you don’t think climate change is real, we are going to run out of easy oil eventually. It could be as soon as NOW, or it could be in 2030.

    Regardless, if we don’t start switching our gas-dependent cars off the road right now, when the time comes that demand for oil outstrips supply, we will be F@#KED people. So before you go saying that the government should not be fiddling with the market and propping up sales of cars that use less oil (or none), consider that it is a necessity for us to begin the process of weening ourselves off our addiction before we trigger a real Armageddon (none of this non-Armageddon, “Armageddon” health care foolishness we’ve been hearing about).

    Range Anxiety, Limited Ranges and “Long Refueling Times” are Not Going to Have a Big Impact

    In a Forbes article in February, Jerry Flint said that the Nissan LEAF would be a flop because it takes “forever” to recharge, doesn’t have the range of a gas powered car, is expensive, and isn’t as fast as a gas powered car. He also said he “guessed” it would cost about $40,000, whereas I staked my reputation on it costing between 25 and 35K. In retrospect, who do you think has the better inside line? In addition to Mr. Flint’s rather standard list of complaints, we’ve heard a lot of ruckus about how people will suffer from range anxiety.

    As I’ve said before, I don’t think EV range anxiety is going to be as big of a deal as people have made it out to be. You can read my stance on that in other posts. I also don’t think that having a range of “only” a hundred miles is going to be that difficult to get around either. Certainly if you only have one car it could present problems. But if you’re like the vast majority of Americans or people living in cities, you rarely ever need to drive more than a couple dozen miles a day and you already have more than one car. Just replace one gas car with an electric and you’ll never know the difference.

    Also, thinking of EVs in terms of “refueling” times is so 20th century. How many of us actually like to go to the gas station? I tend to think of having the ability to fill my car with juice at home as being MORE convenient than going to a gas station. Would you like to have to go to a station to fill up your cell phone every day? No, it’s easy plugging it in at night. Same will go for cars, it’s just that we’re so ingrained in the habit of filling up at a station that it seems like a hassle. Plus, home charging stations (240V/60 Amp) that can charge a car with a 100 mile range to 80% capacity in less than an hour are already available… and that’s only going to get better.

    And the argument that EVs aren’t as fast as gas cars… please. When people usually are talking about “speed” they really mean “acceleration.” Nobody needs to go any faster than 80 mph, but they want to be able to get there quickly if needed. And in this realm EVs whip gas powered cars in droves: with 100% torque available from 0 rpm, getting up to speed is easy.

    When you take all of the above into consideration, I just don’t buy the argument that EVs are a risky business strategy. The pundits and commentators who say they are haven’t taken into account the vast changes that are occurring throughout society, in the industry and in the political sphere and they also haven’t switched their mindset to the world of Gas 2.0.

  8. #8
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    Thats right, it is pure logic I use. Thats why I used the people (J.D. Power & Associates) that are well known for being the best in the world and have a proven track record to back it up. Your stupidity is that you have missed the fact they CHANGED what they used to say two years ago to what they are saying now. What you dont know what the difference is between the words "should" and "may". They changed it in two years time because they have notice the trend I told you would happen TWO YEARS AGO.



    As for cars sales they have dropped but not for the last 3 years OR are you that stupid again that you have not seen ANY of what has happen in this year, THEY ARE ALL UP, opps all except hybrid sales that is. Not only that but the fact is (yes I know you dont like them), but when car sales dropped, hybrid sales have dropped by AT LEAST TWICE as much as the average. Because you are a simpleton, I will explain: That means if car sales dropped 10% then hybrid sales dropped by AT LEAST 20%, and so on. You do see what the difference is, dont you. Ether you do and are to dishonest, so you try to sugar coat the stats and figures or you are to stupid, I believe both. Simple fact for a simpleton if the figure is twice as bad then that means there is something else wrong besides just a bad economy or they would have dropped the same amount, you dumb twit.


    As for you being crazy that is a good bet because you dont have any logic OR common sense, so you cant even think of the cost that it took FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL car company to get each factory started nor the cost of each design change nor what the additional cost is to refit each individual factory all for a 2% market share INDUSTRY WIDE. So once again because you are a simpleton I will explain: 2% INDUSTRY WIDE means that 2% is split between AT LEAST 8 companies that is an average of 431,000 cars per company AND THAT NUMBER GETS EVEN SMALLER when you start to seperate it into different subsideraries (different countries) of each company AND THEN EVEN SMALLER when each individual company has different models.

    So I guess if we follow Havasuckers logic then for a company to be profitable doing hybrids there would have those SAME NUMBERS of world wide sales and then there would be ONLY TWO companies and ONLY TWO different models made WORLD WIDE (which would be IMPOSSIBLE), different countries have different standards. Kind of like, you cant just buy a car in A France dealership, ship it to the USA yourself, and drive it off the ship on to our roads. So you see havasuucker, you are crazy because you cant just take a number (EXCLUDE EVERYTHING ELSE) and then say, looky here, it works. That is why you are a crazy dumb twit.

    After what you just wrote and that kind of thinking, you call me a neandertha. I think you should do a little more research Neanderthas went extinct because they could not think ahead.

    I told you what would happen to hybrid sales and would happen even more so as gas came down. Looky here it did just as I said it would.

    I told you what would happen with the oil spill if no oil came ashore. Looky here, when was the last time you heard about that, NO oil, NO news.

    I told you what would happen in this election a full 2 years ago. Looky here I'll be damed if it did not happen just as I said it would. "Conservatism is dead", my ass.


    On a final note I have to clarify something else havasucker has misslead people on. He brings up a poll and says "a new poll indicates that the vast majority of Americans think that EVs and Hybrids are the way of the future."

    The problem with that is those same people will not pay anymore then 10% more for it then what it would cost them for a conventional gas powered car. That is 1,500 (on a 15,000 dollar car) to 2,000 (on a 20,000 dollar car). The problem there is they are 40% to 50% more. The problem havasucker does not take into account is once again it has taken hybrids over 12 years (not including the prior 10 years spent in development) to get almost NO WHERE on reducing that percentage.

    I also love how havasucker likes to say we only have 10 or 20 years of oil left and if the democrats dont let us go after OUR OWN OIL then that maybe true. The problem is there are another 30 years in just the Canadian oil sands. There is another at least 30 years off our own shores (in just areas researched which is also a very small amount of the total area we have). Then to top all that off there are another 50 to 80 years of oil in oil shale IN OUR OWN COUNTRY (the experts say there is more oil there then in all of Saudi Arabia, some even say as high as twice as much). As a matter of FACT, if our own government would get out of the way we would have more oil available then there ever was in all of the Middle East. As a matter of FACT, if our government got out of the way, gas would be as low as 1.5 dollar a gallon now and there would be as much as 150 years of oil reserves left (not at that price though).

    To be honest, to be able to make oil shale economical with todays tech, gas would have to get to 3.25 dollars a gallon.

  9. #9
    Havakasha is offline
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    Havakasha's Avatar
    Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,358
    U.S.Motor trend car of the year/2011 is the Chevrolet Volt (Nissan leaf electric car came in 2nd)
    European car of the year/2011 is the Nissan Leaf.
    John what do these two have in common?

    In 2011 ALONE the "U.S. lineup will add 13 conventional hybrids, 3 plug-in hybrids, and 11 battery
    electric cars. By the model year 2015, the new car market will have 108 electric-drive models."

    John, yes you are definitely a neanderthal on the subject of clean diesels, hybrids,
    plug-in hybrids, and electric cars. Scroll down and read the articles i posted here and then
    try to understand a little harder what will be happening in the auto industry in the next
    20 years and beyond. A hint: you have to give up your ideological rigidity on this subject
    to even begin to understand.

    Come on dumbass twit () you cant keep ignoring my challenge (its been a year now) to back up your words and TELL ME WHEN PURE HYDROGEN CARS WILL BE 1% OF ALL AUTO SALES WORLDWIDE. You said they were only 5 years behind hybrids and were going to take over in the next 20 years. You're not just a neanderthal, you are also a dishonest WIMP.

    I never said we had "only 10 or 2O years of oil left", but good try anyway John.
    You read an article i posted on the subject of hybrids and thought it
    was me doing the writing. LOL.

    If J.D. Power and Associates is right and close to 10% of cars sold in 2020 are in the
    category of alternative energy vehicles that would be around 18 million sales a YEAR
    (based on estimates of 118 million cars sold worldwide in 2020). Anyone who says
    that "sucks" (as you did) is a complete ignoramous. 18 million hybrid, plug-ins
    and electric cars sold per year and yet you said they will "NEVER" be viable. LMFAO

    Read the following articles with John's statement that hybrids, plug-in hybrids,
    and electric cars "will 'NEVER' be TECHNOLOGICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY VIABLE"
    in mind, and you will truly understand who is the REAL dumbass.


    Expert: Expect More Than 100 Hybrid and EV Models in U.S. by 2015

    PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 10, 2010

    The one consistent truth in automotive sales forecasting is that all forecasts are wrong. The size of the market for emerging technologies, like hybrids and electric cars, is even trickier to forecast. That’s partly because car companies, governments, and environmentalists like to publish and promote rosy scenarios based on market goals, rather than concrete plans.


    But when you take a hard look at concrete plans for specific electric-drive vehicles in the next five years, you see a burgeoning market with more than 50 conventional hybrids, more than 30 pure electric cars, nearly 20 plug-in hybrids, and a handful of fuel cell vehicles. Those numbers come from Alan Baum, a Michigan-based auto industry analyst who has been running auto market forecasts since the 1980s.

    “My forecast is model-by-model and bottom up. Most of the other forecasts are based on assumptions, and work top down,” Baum said. “It’s not that I’m smarter. It’s an outgrowth of my work on the broad automotive market for a long time.” Baum, who recently left The Planning Edge to form his own market analysis firm, also looks at supplier orders, plant capacity, volume planning, and macroeconomic conditions such fuel prices, interest rates, and government regulations.

    “In the past few years, major automakers have changed their strategy. They used to fight fuel efficiency regulations,” Baum said. “Now, as the numbers go up and time marches on, automakers are saying, ‘Look at the list of models. We’re doing our part. We’re bringing a raft of new vehicles and technologies.'”

    PluginCars.com

    We keep track of the growing list of electric cars and plug-in hybrids at our sister site. PluginCars.com also has news and community forums.

    Baum is tracking a whopping 108 electric-drive vehicles by model year 2015. That’s up from 22 grid-free hybrids and one electric car, the Tesla Roadster, in production today. There will be 27 new model introductions for the model year 2011 alone—effectively doubling the number of hybrids and plug-ins in a single year. Baum indicates that the 2011 U.S. line-up will add 13 conventional hybrids, 3 plug-in hybrids, and 11 battery electric cars. By the model year 2015, the new car market will have 108 electric-drive models. Nearly half of them will be conventional hybrids, but there will also be 18 plug-in hybrids, 32 EVs, and 6 fuel-cell electric cars. Many of these models have been announced, but just as many have not yet been unveiled.

    Inflection Point

    Baum acknowledges that the U.S. hybrid market has been flat—approximately 2.5 percent of the new car market—for the past couple of years. That’s largely due to a sluggish economy and low gas prices. But things are about to change, according to Baum.

    When you combine government incentives, rising fuel economy requirements, and automakers eager to provide hybrids and EVs to a group of consumers “salivating for the product,” the market will grow. “We got ourselves an inflection point,” Baum said. “Getting out of the 2 percent market range, and into the 4s or 5s is a big deal. The planets are aligned for this.”

    Growth of the U.S. market to 4 or 5 percent—as much as 900,00 hybrids and EVs per year by 2015—could pave the way for even bigger growth in a subsequent phase. In fact, fuel economy regulations expected for the period between 2017 to 2025 essentially will require a massive shift to hybrids, supported by a growing number of electric cars—which are likely to give carmakers extra credits to meet those higher standards.

    Conventional Hybrids Will See Biggest Growth

    Baum groups conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars into a single “electric vehicle forecast." He sees the biggest growth in conventional hybrids, and believes that pure electric cars will only strengthen the market for standard hybrids. “Consumers will look at EVs and plug-in hybrids and say, ‘That’s kind of out there. If that works, then maybe it’s time for a conventional hybrid, available in many more models, and with no need to worry about range or infrastructure.'”

    In addition, Baum believes that General Motors and Nissan will make sure that this year’s introduction of the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF will be a success—creating even more consumer confidence in the whole market for electric-drive vehicles.



    Nissan Leaf (all electric car) wins BEST EUROPEAN CAR/2011
    by Timothy B. Hurst on November 29, 2010

    Not to be outdone by the Chevy Volt, which is fresh off winning Car of the Year and Green Car of the Year awards in the U.S., the all-electric Nissan LEAF has been named the European Car of the Year.

    This is not only the first time in its 47-year history that a fully electric car has won the prestigious award, it is the first time an all-electric car has even made it into the final round.

    "This award recognizes the pioneering zero-emission Nissan LEAF as competitive to conventional cars in terms of safety, performance, spaciousness and handling," Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.'s President and CEO Carlos Ghosn said.

    Scoring 257 points from a jury of 58, the LEAF narrowly edged out the Alfa Romeo Giulietta and the Opel/Vauxhall Meriva, which received 248 points and 244 points respectively. Other finalists included the Citroën C3/DS3, the Dacia Duster, Ford C-Max/Grand C-Max, and the Volvo S60/V60.

    Nissan has won the Car of the Year before, but it's been a while. In 1993, the UK-built Nissan Micra became the first car from a Japanese automaker to win the award.

    "In spite of the lack of a large recharging network and the limited range, the LEAF represents a technical and commercial bet that might otherwise satisfy many potential consumers, especially where public incentives will come to reduce the paying price," Car of the Year officials said.

    The LEAF, which last week received a 99 miles-per-gallon equivalency rating by the EPA, has a sticker price of $32,780, but state and federal incentives can reduce the price by $10,000 or more in some parts of the country.

    "With three other electric vehicles in the pipeline from Nissan - and with the imminent market introduction of four additional electric vehicles from our Alliance partner Renault - Nissan LEAF represents a significant first step toward a zero-emission future," Nissan's Ghosn said.

    In Japan and the United States, deliveries for the LEAF begin this December. In Europe, deliveries start in early 2011 to Portugal, the Republic of Ireland, the UK and the Netherlands.

    Want a LEAF? You'll most likely have to wait. Even though a single vehicle has yet to arrive in dealer showrooms in the U.S., the 2011 Nissan LEAF is already sold out.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-29-2010 at 09:32 PM.



    Chevrolet Volt wins Motor Trends CAR OF THE YEAR for 2011

    http://www.motortrend.com/oftheyear/...#ixzz16iDQSLE9
    Last edited by Havakasha; 11-29-2010 at 06:46 PM.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 12-02-2010 at 12:14 PM.

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