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Thread: Sirius stock november 2010

  1. #21
    Big Ben is offline
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    Where are all the smart people? What is the play with siri? Down 5c today 3 percent. I think the overall markets are unraveling in general but there has to be some stocks worthing owning. I stand by my entry point of .86 on siri. I will purchase anywhere under a buck, thats after Stern bails. I think sirius offers enough to keep some of his listeners. Some will defect, but I think the company will then have the foot taken off of its neck. Free to trade without the Stern haters.

    Little Ben

    Siri swinging back up...good for the traders.

  2. #22
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    [QUOTE=Big Ben;65901]I think the overall markets are unraveling in general but there has to be some stocks worthing owning. [QUOTE]

    ouch, the dow is up 168 pts as of 10:23 AM 11/18. Whoda thunk it.

  3. #23
    Havakasha is offline
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    Big Ben as usual has impeccable timing. Lol.

  4. #24
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    MMTC Wants Clarification On Sirius XM Order

    MMTC Wants Clarification On Sirius XM Order

    November 19, 2010: After a number of delays, the FCC in October released an order under which Sirius XM can begin leasing spectrum to qualified entities in an effort to achieve "source, viewpoint, and programming diversity." The Minority Media and Telecommunications Council has filed a petition for reconsideration, asking that the definition of "qualified entity" be limited to this instance and contending that the definition itself is too vague.

    Sirius XM agreed to lease 4 percent of the spectrum on Sirius and on XM as one term of the merger that created Sirius XM Radio Inc., but it was left up to the FCC to define the qualifications and to choose the lessees. With the October order, Sirius XM agreed to take a hand in choosing who'd get the leases, based on FCC criteria and subject to commission approval.

    That order specified that potential lessees not be directly or indirectly owned by Sirius XM or an affiliate, and that they not share officers, directors, or employees with Sirius XM. A lessee also cannot have supplied programming to Sirius XM for at least two years before the order's adoption.

    The MMTC is now asking for a supplemental ruling to "establish clear standards as to what constitutes a 'relationship' that precludes a programmer from participating in the diversity program."

    The group would also like the definition of "qualified entity" used for the Sirius XM lessees to be confined to this case in particular, saying, "Due to the definition's extremely dilute impact, the commission's goal of promoting diversity would be severely set back if this definition were to become the de facto standard." The MMTC says that "99.9 percent of programmers, including huge multinational organizations such as Google, would qualify for the channel set-aside because they have no 'relationship' with Sirius XM." Additionally, it says the definition would "implicitly reject 16 of the 71 ending diversity proposals now before the commission."

    The FCC said in the Sirius XM order that its definition of "qualified entity" was intentionally race-neutral, citing potential constitutional challenges to its earlier, more specific definition.

    In the petition for reconsideration, the MMTC sets out what it calls "race-neutral" but "not racially dilute" classifications it would like to include as part of the definition for these purposes: Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic serving institutions, Asian American serving institutions, and Native American serving institutions, saying such organizations are "based on mission, not race." It would also like multilingual programmers to be included, "a classification based on language, not race," and tribal entities, "based on treaty relationships, not race."

    Says the MMTC, "None of these categories of programmers is significantly represented on Sirius XM now, and the public interest would be well served if they were."

  5. #25
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    FSBO or FSBRealtor.

    Kiawah....beautiful place. The entire coast is fifty percent off. Some condos are 70 percent off. Makes them a sweet buy if your retiring and have not been crushed in the past two years. I ran into a guy who bought a sweet ass house I wanted to buy. I called on it and it was 650k, the other day I stopped and talked with the guy....good story....just sold his house near DC and offered 350k and got it. He said same lot and house in DC would have been 1.5 million. Nice lot, nice rope fence with very nice landscaping, palms, pool, real fence around entire lot, two car garage, mother in law unit above two car unattached garage.

    Wow, I have really turned into a red neck, I have a three car garage and work bench and nice shelving, side door.....but if I see someone with a four car garage...ooohhh the space. When I am in the country and I see a five car unattached garage, industrial size door, one door for the golf cart, one for the tractor.....ooooohhh. The farther away the garage from the house the better. Times they are a changin.

    About them Steelers....what an asskicking. First class, grade A, ass whipping. My buddy said it best on Monday morning, He was quoting Cris Collinsworth...of all people...for those of you who don't know...he hates Pittsburgh always has....Collinsworth said the look on the face of the mighty Steelers says it all....they showed up for a smash mouth fight and the other team is not playing by the rules..they are dink and dunking as to death...Tom Brady totally exposed our does Gay even have a is it on any shallow route or screen..our players are not even in the camera shot..players are wide open. After they throw it 10 times in row, they can call any run and BGE looks like Walter Payton. I can only imagine what the coaching staff had to say on Tuesday.

    Big Ben

    Big Ben your problem is that you are not understanding the fact that even at 10.8 million OEM run rate SIRIXM not only ADDS subscribers it adds them while keeping all the rest of the metrics in great territory. That fact means that even in a bad economy OEM run rates will be enough to keep SIRIXM sitting pretty.

    I will remind you that David Frear is calling for them to have 70 million cars with satellite radios in them (active and DEactive) by the end of 2015. Given that comment we then can say that he expects SIRIXM to have about 30 million subs by then and a FCF earnings of about a billion a year. That FCF number is easy when you consider both he and Mel have said (about a year ago) that most of the revenue from new subs from here on out will goto the bottom line. Now that is well over 6 times the amount of FCF then they are at NOW and while analyst say it is over valued at 1.4, they also say 1.2 to 1.3 is not over valued. SOOOooo do the math, if they earn over SIX times todays FCF in 5 years what are the analyst going to have to say in 5 years?????? Ho you are getting it aren't you?????? come on you know?????? Ho what the hell I will tell you...... 7.5 dollars a share. Now who here would not pay 1.2 a share NOW to make 7.5 a share in 5 years???? Here let me put it another way, where else can you get that kind of return on your money.

    First you have to ask yourself can it happen. Well for that asnwer lets look at what David frear said and ask if that is logical. From what it looks like, it is very possible when you take into account he is only figuring that the OEM run rate will have to average 12 to 12.5 million for the next 5 years at the present penetration rate of 61%. As a matter of fact I would say Frear low balled his estimate. Next can they get 10 million more subs in 5 years??? sure seems like alot in just 5 years, until you realize that is half as many in half as long as it took them in the first 10 years. Also lets not forget while they may lose retail at a 12 to 12.5 million run rate and a take rate of 46%, that would mean 1.5 million new net subs a year. Now while that is only 7.5 million new subs that already takes out all-in churn and while all-in churn already includes lost retail that 7.5 million does not include any new retail or used cars that will generate new subs. It is the basic reason I say "AT LEAST" when I give my projection of new subs coming in the quarter and we have seen how low they have been. So in the final analysis, it is very probable.

  6. #26
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Dr. Laura Moves to Satellite Radio

    NEW YORK, Nov. 26, 2010

    Talk show host Laura Schlessinger won't stay away from radio very long - only a weekend, in fact. Sirius XM Radio Inc. said Monday it has a multiyear deal with Schlessinger to bring her "Dr. Laura" advice program to satellite radio in January. Specific terms were not revealed. Schlessinger had said in August that she was quitting her syndicated radio program, a week after she apologized for using the N-word on the air 11 times while talking to a black woman, and activists demanded her ouster. She ends her traditional radio program on Friday, Dec. 31. The following Monday, her "Dr. Laura" show will begin live at 2 p.m. on Sirius XM. It will air for three hours a day on Monday through Friday. Schlessinger announced on CNN's "Larry King Live" Aug. 17 that she was walking away from her radio show when her contract ended. The next day Sirius talk programming chief Jeremy Coleman called her to discuss a switch, she said. "The first and most important thing that appealed to me was the freedom to speak my mind without advertisers and affiliates being attacked by activist groups that just love to censor anything they don't agree with," she said. "That just about made my heart and head explode." The liberal watchdog Media Matters for America was a persistent critic. Its leadership didn't accept her apology and sought to encourage advertisers to drop her show. She was reading the Media Matters website when she decided, "that's it, I'm done with this," Schlessinger said. In the radio incident that prompted her to quit, Schlessinger said to the woman involved, who was married to a white man, that "if you're that hypersensitive about color and don't have a sense of humor, don't marry out of your race." Schlessinger said she'll have some new segments on her show, including interviews with people about situations "that are relevant to the morals, values, principles and ethics that I nag about everyday." She said she's sure she'll say things that will offend someone. "When I talk about married couples staying together for the sake of the children, somebody's offended," she said. "When I talk about mothers staying home with their babies, feminists are offended. when I talk about how wives should have more sex with their husbands, women are offended." Schlessinger will be the biggest radio star to jump from traditional to satellite radio since Howard Stern, who had also tired of controversies over things he said and found the opportunity for a big payday. She's likely to sacrifice some viewers. It's estimated her show is currently heard by about 8 million people a day. Sirius XM has 20 million subscribers, but it's not certain how many of them will be interested in Schlessinger. The service does not release figures estimating listeners for their shows. Her show will also be available online and through apps on many smart phones, Sirius said; shows will be repeated on radio over the weekend.
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  7. #27
    john is offline
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    Well some estimates are in on OEM sales this month and while they dont look to be to spectacular, as a matter of fact I would have to say they did NOT gain any subs from the OEM channel this month. Thank god this quarter is a retail quarter and that means they will not lose as many total retail and may even gain in that part of the business this quarter. Ether way I will stick to the way I do things and say that SIRIXM added AT LEAST 1 sub this month. I believe that puts us at AT LEAST 100,001 subs so far this quarter.

  8. #28
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    UPDATE 1-Sirius extends NFL deal for five more years

    Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:11pm IST

    * Sirius to broadcast NFL games through 2016

    * Has 20 mln subscribers

    NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O) will continue to broadcast National Football League games for five more years, while it is still considering the fate of its key on-air personality, Howard Stern.

    Sirius said on Tuesday the satellite radio network reached an agreement with the NFL to continue broadcasting the league's games live nationwide through the Super Bowl in 2016.

    It also said it now has 20 million subscribers. The company's contract with radio shock-jock Stern expires in December, and some investors are worried that subscribers might quit should Stern not stay. (Reporting by Ritsuko Ando, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

  9. #29
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Are Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) and Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) "Irrelevant" Now?
    Despite being two of the most closely watched U.S. stocks, I wonder if Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Sirius XM Radio Inc (NASDAQ: SIRI) have their best days behind them, rather than ahead.

    Cisco is problematic because I don't understand what they do that's unique to the marketplace in 2010... There are many companies that create IP telephony hardware, network routers and Web traffic switches. If you look at their corporate homepage, you are given the impression that the future of the company is dependent on "the human network" (whatever that is) and on buying a new "PBX System" for your company, which is apparently a super old-looking office desk phone that has video chat capability... I guess what I'm asking: why does any company need Cisco over the next five years? Answer that question in the comments section and you'll get a gold star -- or at least my respect.

    Sirius XM was a fantastic idea at the time, but I think they've simply been upstaged by the direction that online content has gone in... Free streaming music, mobile apps like Pandora radio, and on-demand music download services like Apple's iTunes.

    This doesn't leave much room for Sirius' comparatively expensive monthly subscription service. Also, how can Sirius remain competitive when it has so much HUGE overhead that other content companies don't have... namely, it has some of the largest commercial broadcast satellites ever built by the human race floating over the United States. Also, it has expensive satellites on standby, ready to be launched if one of the XM monsters in the sky goes down.

    Additionally, it has huge fixed programming costs. Great, top-tier talent like Howard Stern and Martha Stewart costs a lot of money.

    The next huge online streaming site, on the other hand, can be launched out of a dorm room with a couple of dedicated servers and a commercial broadband FiOS line.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but the Sirius XM business model just seems too "old media" and untenable to work in today's cutthroat media environment -- although it does offer solid value for frequent drivers and commercial truckers (in many parts of the country, free FM/AM programming is simply unbearable to listen to).

    What do you think, though? Let me know in the comments section below or direct message me on Twitter.

    Tyler? Is that you?

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