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Thread: Sirius XM Stock Thread for October 2010

  1. #121
    Havakasha is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    The first problem is, it has never (at least since the market started it's recent increase) been that large of a difference, at most I have seen 7,000 to 12,000 difference in expectations. Second problem is that, for as many up side expectations there have been as many down side expectations on the weekly unemployment numbers. Third problem is that, even on most of the days that that had showed unemployment went up higher then expected the market still went up. Forth is the problem that many dont even follow the weekly and use the monthly which smooths out those weekly jobless claims numbers. Finally the big number they all use more then any weekly or monthly unemployment claims number is the unemployment RATE and at what pace is the economy creating jobs that was much slower then anyone expected and while the rate stayed the same when expectations were that it would rise to 9.7 or 9.8 the fact is if you read any of those articles you would see that they all said that the only reason that did not rise was that many fell out of the unemployment number because they are NO LONGER LOOKING FOR WORK, NOT that they are no longer UNemployed. AND WHAT HAPPEN after that report came out????? Ho yes, the market continued to go up.


    There has been ONLY ONE thing that has happen that has DIRECTLY correlated to the rise of the market. I know you must think it is some big quesidence, that AS SOON AS most polls started to show republicans would absolutely take back the congress the markets started to go up but it is a fact that just as that happen the market started its increase. Ever hear buy the rumor sell the news. I will also predict that just as the election results show what the polls are saying happens that because the market has gone to high that it will come down some and there will be profit taking. The only thing that will stop the down turn or make it not so bad, is if the republicans also take back the senate also. The reason there is very few that expects it to happen. I believe it is still very possible. I think we see another Scott Brown happen. I saw a Hanity show where he had a Frank luntz group in Connecticut, half were supporting the democrat and half supporting the republican for senate. TWO of them raised their hands when the question was ask, after seeing that debate, do you think Blumenthal (the democrat) knows how to create jobs. Thats right only 2 of them said yes. Now I am being optimistic in thinking people are not going to be as stupid as they were when they voted for a man with no experience to be president but something tells me they learned, "fool me once shame on you fool me twice SHAME ON ME". That they are not going to be as stupid as people in, PA., CO., OH., VA., ect., to vote for a man that said he would bankrupt the coal industry you know an industry that those states ECONOMIES DEPEND ON. I am hoping people are not still dumb twits AGAIN.
    OH Airman you around?

    The bullshit meter just went berserk from john's answer, and I was hoping it might have jolted you awake. .
    Last edited by Havakasha; 10-22-2010 at 10:03 PM.

  2. #122
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    All kinds of analysis of why the market might be moving this way or that,
    but when you are John and there are quotes of you predicting the market
    will fall in Sept. and Oct., and advising people to limit their exposure to
    certain stocks don't you think you ought to be a little bit humble?


    Here is one analysis among hundreds.

    NEW YORK | Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:11pm EDT
    (Reuters) - U.S. stocks could see big swings to the downside next week on any remotely "bad" news since volatility indexes are at levels considered too low.

    Investors also will face a blizzard of earnings, which many analysts believe will continue to support the rally that began early this month. But any disappointments in either earnings or outlooks could, of course, trigger a sharp sell-off.

    What's more, the market is likely to continue to garner support from investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve will take more steps to stimulate the economy, in what's known as "quantitative easing" or "QE2." The Fed is expected to unveil its initial commitment under QE2 at its November 2-3 meeting.

    The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, a gauge widely used to measure investors' anxiety levels, fell 2.54 percent on Friday to close at 18.78, its lowest level since April. The VIX, which rose to near 50 in May, has been around or under 20 for the past two weeks.

    Options traders note that there is a clear sign of extreme complacency in the VIX and that it is making the market more vulnerable than before.

    "The 'market volatility' index will see a lot more volatility (next week) since it is at such low levels now," said Steve Claussen, chief investment strategist at online brokerage OptionHouse.com.

    The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures exchange-traded note, or ETN (VXX.P) is also at a new 52-week low of 12.83. The ETN offers directional exposure to volatility and is based off of the front two-month VIX futures.

    "If you look at VIX futures, investors seem to be always preparing for something to trigger the volatility to spike up again, yet there is nothing major in the immediate future that justifies that," Claussen said.

    The VIX futures were traded at around 21 for November and 24 for December, but going into 2011, they were showing an increase of 40 percent, trading above 26.

    The VIX, widely known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is a 30-day risk forecast of stock market volatility. The index typically has an inverse relationship with the S&P benchmark as it tracks option prices that investors are willing to pay as protection on the underlying stocks.

    Earlier this week, the VIX instantly shot up nearly 12 percent when stocks suffered their steepest one-day decline since August after a surprising rate hike from China.

    EARNINGS ON CENTER STAGE

    Earnings will remain the center of attention next week. Many analysts predict that earnings will continue to support the market rally that kicked off October. If more companies report strong results, that could bolster sentiment, along with hopes for more Fed easing.

    In the last week of October, 177 S&P 500 companies are due to report their balance sheets, of which seven are Dow components. Among them are energy giants Exxon (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N) and technology giant Microsoft (MSFT.O).

    S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 28 percent for the third quarter from a year ago, up from a growth estimate of 24 percent last week, according to Thomson Reuters data.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 10-23-2010 at 01:15 PM.

  3. #123
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    "The earnings are expected to be good next week as well ... we are not expecting any bad news out of there," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, in New York.

    But Cardillo said that negative news from economic data could spark market volatility, especially as it would come just a week before the November 2-3 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, and in the week preceding the November 2nd mid-term elections.

    Major economic data for the coming week includes existing home sales, durable goods orders and third-quarter GDP.

    Elliot Spar, options market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, also said a sell-off could begin as early as next week in anticipation of the Fed meeting and the mid-term elections.

    "For those that are waiting for the 'sell on the news' event on November 3 when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes its meeting to discuss the prospect of another round of quantitative easing, I believe that the sell-off in the market will start during the week of October 25."

  4. #124
    Havakasha is offline
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    And a little more:



    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Worry about corporate profit growth and a weekend meeting of global finance officials put pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, but the major indexes still managed their third straight week of gains.

    The blue-chip measure closed down 14.01 points, or 0.13%, to 11132.56.

    The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index (SPX 1,183, +2.82, +0.24%) edged up 2.82, or 0.24%, to 1183.08. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP 2,479, +19.72, +0.80%) rose 19.72 points, 0.8%, to 2,479.39.

    The Dow (DJIA 11,133, -14.01, -0.13%) and the S&P 500 closed up for the third-consecutive week, with both gaining 0.6%. The Nasdaq added 0.4% this week.

    Traders hesitated Friday as a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 big industrial and emerging economies got under way in Gyeongju, South Korea. The market is watching whether officials, in preparation for a G-20 summit in Seoul next month, can agree on managing exchange rates to cool what’s been called a “currency war.” Read latest on G-20.

    “We need some sense of direction over what’s going to happen in currencies,” said Michael Farr, president of the portfolio-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. Read commentary from the frontlines of the ‘currency war.’

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY 77.37, +0.05, +0.07%) , tracking the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, edged up less than 0.1%. Get more currencies data.

    In the meantime, traders focused on the latest earnings reports. Nearly three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results so far this earnings season have topped analysts’ estimates, but traders remain concerned about currencies and the weak economic backdrop.

    “The profit news is constructive, but not enough to lead to a new leg higher,” said Nick Kalivas, vice president of MF Global.

    The Dow’s decline Friday was led by American Express Co. (AXP 39.03, -1.24, -3.08%) and Verizon Communications (VZ 32.09, -0.43, -1.32%) . Both reported better-than-expected profits, but AmEx fell 3.1% on concerns that it is seeing weak demand for new loans, and Verizon dropped 1.3% on disappointment over slowing wireless subscriber growth. Read more on American Express. Read more on Verizon.


    Hot Stocks: Energy Stocks Rock
    Schlumberger's optimism grows about the Gulf of Mexico. MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi reports.

    Technology stocks were boosted by encouraging earnings. Riverbed Technology (RVBD 54.27, +8.40, +18.31%) , which makes products that reduce the load on networks, surged 18% after its third-quarter revenue beat expectations and its board approved a 2-for-1 stock split. Read more in Tech Stocks

    Compuware (CPWR 9.92, +1.10, +12.47%) , CA Inc. (CA 22.87, +1.11, +5.10%) and Amazon.com (AMZN 169.13, +4.16, +2.52%) also reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates. Compuware jumped 12%, while CA added 5.1%, and Amazon climbed 2.5%. Read more on Amazon.

    The energy sector got a boost from Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB 67.77, +3.46, +5.38%) shares, which climbed 5.4% after the oilfield-services company’s third-quarter earnings more than doubled, topping analysts’ expectations. Read more on Schlumberger.

    But utilities were weighed down by a drop in Exelon Corp. (EXC 42.00, -1.52, -3.49%) , which fell 3.5%. The owner of nuclear power plants posted a 12% increase in third-quarter profit, but investors were disappointed to see operating margin narrowed as costs rose.

    Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 205.77, +26.52, +14.79%) jumped 15%. The restaurant chain’s third-quarter profit rose 40% as same-store sales and traffic improved. The company also boosted its same-store sales target for the year.

    Wilmington Trust (WL 8.76, +0.69, +8.55%) shares added 8.6%. Trading in the bank was halted two times Friday afternoon when its jump set off a single-stock circuit breaker twice on reports Wilmington is in talks with Canadian banks.

    Treasurys declined, pushing the 10-year note yield’s (UST10Y 2.56, 0.00, 0.00%) up to 2.56%. Crude-oil futures crept higher, while gold futures also advanced.

  5. #125
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    So let's count the sites which Sirius Buzz created

    Satwaves
    KOAT
    Satellite Radio Playground
    and now newmarketplayers.com

    It would be interesting to document the chronology of event leading up to all this.
    I just think it's funny when they are marketed as "general" investment sites, and you poke around and see half the articles or more are about siri siri siri.

  6. #126
    airman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    OH Airman you around?

    The bullshit meter just went berserk from john's answer, and I was hoping it might have jolted you awake. .
    Nope i sure wasn't ....

    I guess you did not read my last reply to you .... I guess I may also have to skip your posts from now on ... you are an antagonizer too.

  7. #127
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    [QUOTE=airman;65545]Nope i sure wasn't ....

    I guess you did not read my last reply to you .... I guess I may also have to skip your posts from now on ... you are an antagonizer too.[/QUOTE]

    You said it!! Occasionally he'll read you posts. One of his favorite tactics is to spam the board with opinion pieces.

  8. #128
    Havakasha is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by airman View Post
    Nope i sure wasn't ....

    I guess you did not read my last reply to you .... I guess I may also have to skip your posts from now on ... you are an antagonizer too.
    Obviously you prefer, as you indicated before, to avoid taking John to task. I dont see myself as you describle me, but no problem. And dont worry as i wont be mentioning your name here again.
    Enjoy your day.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 10-26-2010 at 05:37 PM.

  9. #129
    Havakasha is offline
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    [QUOTE=SiriuslyLong;65546]
    Quote Originally Posted by airman View Post
    Nope i sure wasn't ....

    I guess you did not read my last reply to you .... I guess I may also have to skip your posts from now on ... you are an antagonizer too.[/QUOTE]

    You said it!! Occasionally he'll read you posts. One of his favorite tactics is to spam the board with opinion pieces.

    S&L. Sorry you feel that way. I thought i"ve spent my time on the politics thread
    posting many interesting articles in order to stimulate thinking and conversation.
    Never see you exhibit as much anger at john's lies. Hmmm, wonder why.
    I quess cause you disagree with most of my viewpoints its easier to call it spam. Ive read hundreds of your posts and if you define that with the word "occasionally" so be it. Enjoy the day as well.


    Really happy with how Siri has bounced back up.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 10-26-2010 at 04:47 PM.

  10. #130
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    [QUOTE=Havakasha;65549]
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post


    Really happy with how Siri has bounced back up.
    Me too, but it has been on light volume which is certainly reason for caution.

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