Satwaves (Pro), KOAT, Satellite Playground...... I'd love to have some of those folks back.Originally Posted by sxminvestor
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Satwaves (Pro), KOAT, Satellite Playground...... I'd love to have some of those folks back.
"Howard asked Scott what he wears when he bowls. Scott said he wears jeans an a t-shirt. He may have to get something nicer for TV though. Howard said he should wear a Howard 100 shirt if he gets on TV.
Howard said that things are getting weird around there. He said they used to get research on how many people are listening to the channels but all of that has dried up. He said that they're not telling them anything around there now."
http://marksfriggin.com/news.htm#thu
And the beat goes on.
Certainly adding to the suspense.
pretty solid wall thrown up at $1.05 . . . thought after clearing $1.02 we would sail-thru to $1.08/$1.10
looks like the new support/resistance levels are already well defined
am reading that fund managers are pretty much on the sidelines now and will remain so through Q3 . . . although (aside from Liberty's 40%) institutional interest in siri is minimal anyway
most volume in the broader markets now is us . . . retail and on-line trading
SRK, a couple of negative articles eh? What do you think of that article you posted by Nicholas Deleon? He very bearish, are you?
Thanks,
Hopeful
Hello Julie
Last edited by Hopeful; 09-10-2010 at 12:50 AM.
Hey HOPEFUL . . great to hear from you again! Please post more often . . .
No-no. I am not bearish on the future of the service. The service is here to stay and will one-day be "standard" on new cars.
And now the part you hate . . . but we as shareholders may not be around to enjoy it (yeah-yeah, the Liberty thing again - lol).
Anyway, as to the article, the author makes a leap which assumes that reconfiguring certain talent/content will eventually lead to the demise of the service. In this regard I will have to trust that Mel has the internals that will justify these decisions. Management does know who listens to what and when . . so, regardless of the author's personal taste in content, Mel knows what is selling and Mel is a better judge of what serves the interests of shareholders.
Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 09-10-2010 at 11:37 AM.
Hey SRK, I know it has been a long time... I will try to post more often, I guess I don't have a lot to say about the company these days, it is getting rather boring.
Yes I will be very sad if liberty takes the stock from us. Percentage wise how probable do you see such a scenario? I dunno for some reason I just do not see Liberty screwing us, but maybe that is just the "hopeful" side of me...
How have you been? You have been helping keep SB alive! Good points and I agree with you about Mel, in my mind he wants to leave this thing with attractive shareholder value, he does not want to leave it a bear!
Hopeful
Last edited by Hopeful; 09-10-2010 at 11:44 AM.
Impossible to say . . too many moving parts but here is a basic overview:
Liberty Capital: Citi Upgrades; Sees Eventual Higher SIRI Stake
By Eric Savitz
July 9, 2010, 10:01 AM ET
Liberty Capital (LCAPA) shares are getting a boost today from Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet, who this morning raised his rating on the company to Buy from Hold, with a new target of $54, up from $46. The analyst says the higher rating and target reflect an updated sum-of-the-parts analysis of the company.
Actually, Bazinet spends much of his note assessing what the company is likely to do with its 40% stake in Sirius XM (SIRI). He notes that the current position increases the complexity of the company but does not allow it to tap into the substantial Sirius net operating loss carryforwards.
Bazinet notes that three factors limits the company’s choices. For starters, the company has agreed to a 50% ownership limitation through March 2011. Meanwhile, tax rules limit the use of the Sirius NOLs through March 2012. And finally, he notes that Liberty would have to boost its stake in Sirius to 80% ownership within 6 months of reaching 50% in order to use the NOLs.
He sees three scenarios for what could happen here:
Liberty could tender for 100% of Sirius between March 2011 and March 2012.
Liberty could double its stake to 80% after March 2012.
Liberty could spin its Sirius stake and then merge with Sirius via a maneuver called a Reverse Morris Trust after March 2012.
He thinks a 100% tender is “very unlikely.” He thinks moving the stake to 80% after March 2012 is most likely if Sirius’ equity value remains subdued; he thinks a spin-and-merger after March 2012 is most likely if there is significant appreciation of Sirius shares.
Perhaps Liberty will choose to do none of the above and simply retain their current 40% interest and watch it grow like hell . . .
quoting John Malone:
"My strategy -- and Ray was totally in support of it -- is we're gonna own a lot of 20-percents-of-things, and we're going to put a fair amount of money into it. Those things are going to be leveraged and grow like hell, and we're going to create a lot of shareholder wealth doing that. As for Wall Street, we're just going to have to keep training them to understand the value of that approach. I mean, I've been doing it my whole career."
Liberty waiting in the wings is not altogether negative, knowing there is the potential for a future "premium" tender offer or an increased stake in Siri gives buoyancy to the share price
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