Sirius Thread Month of AUGUST 2010

[Havakasha]

Lloyd...be careful...your starting to sound more and more like a closet conservative!!

Now if only Congress and the mighty "O" can just put away the credit card for a couple of years...maybe...just maybe...we can start to dig our way out of this death spiral!

JS

LoL. i have my conservative sides for sure.
I am more worried about unemployment and housing then debt right now but i appreciate the thoughts.

[Havakasha]

Waiting for John to answer my questions about his predictions. Wonder how long it will take?

[Hopeful]

What do you guys think of SiriusXM 2.0? Is their a possibility that it may offer an AD based platform as well as a commercial free based platform if you want to pay for it? That would be a huge revenue stream with all the inactive radios turned on making money for advertisers! They must have a huge presence on the road now?

Any thoughts? Really what more could they offer, especially to WOW investors? I honestly don't believe this is how Mel wants to end his legacy, SP wise...

Hopeful

[john]

Hey wild and Crazy guy.
OK so let me see if i follow you.
The real "carnage" ("really be 'carnage' ") will happen in Nov or Dec? Describe that carnage in terms of numbers please.
So are there any things that will stop the carnage other than extending the Bush tax cuts, not
raising the capital gains and Republicans taking over the House (We ALREADY know Republican will get close or actually take over the House). Please name them now. Or are you just saying you will decide at the time and call that a reason for the carnage not happening. In other words you will decide somehow you precicted everything no matter what happens? LMFAO.

1.If the Bush tax cuts are rescinded for the top 2% then tell me what going over the cliff means and tell us for how long it will stay over the cliff.
2.When they raise capital gains (5% i believe) tell me about the market carnage you predict and for how long that will continue?

Tell me nicely now without a hint of child abuse.

First, yes while you and people as stupid as you NOW know what is going to happen on the political playground, it was something I told you would happen almost 2 years ago. The point is if you were not ether stupid or had such ideological blinders on you would have been able to see it coming as I did. As an example, I knew the end of the republicans run started way back when they did the prescription drug program and knew it would get worse as they tried to get immigration amnesty passed.

Second, at this point there is nothing else anyone can do that would effect the economic background as fast as it needs to for it to effect the economy and market in a good way as extending the Bush tax cuts. That is why I told you that while the republicans taking back the congress will give support to the market it will not be the end of a down slide it will at best lift it so much but the tax cuts will need to be done for sure before you get a rise that will be sustainable. The best that will come from the republicans taking back congress will be a since that at least Obama cant do anymore damage to economy. I have told you and I will be clear so even you can understand. If republicans dont take back the house the market will drop like a rock for the reasons I stated in my previous post

Just a reminder: As I was the ONLY ONE saying the republicans would (almost 2 YEARS AGO). Mind you I did not just say the republicans would get 10 seats or 20 seats. I said they would take back the house (that ment at least 39 seats OR 100% more then anyone could even emagine at the time). I also told you (when most were saying conservativism was dead) that the republicans running would be running on a way more conservative platform then almost ever. Now even a dumb twit like you would have to say, "Boy he nailed that right on the head". The fact that I called what is happing so correctly is not the only amazing part of that prediction. The other amazing part of that prediction is that I was telling you something that most would not even consider thinking possible at the time (especially if you read the New York Times or watch the MSM). Or should I go and put up all the links showing them saying "conservatism is dead" and "the republicans will have to move to the left if they dont want to be a foot note in history." Really are you that stupid that you dont remember them all saying that and need me to pull up several of the hundreds of times they said that?


Finally I have told you, you are a dumb twit and that it is not ESP it is common sense and logic that I make these projections of what will happen and because it is common sense and logic and not ESP, their are not direct numbers to give THEY ARE TRENDS. Are you that stupid that when someone tells you that the market will go down huge, you stay in it. Dumbass do you (or anyone) want to be in the market when it drops to 7,000, or in YOUR stupid opinion, it makes a difference that it only went to 8,000 or 8,500 if you should get out or not before it happens. It is like when I told you the republicans will take back the house. Does it really matter to my prediction if they win 40 seats or 60 seats???? No it does not, I told you something that no one else even conseived of at the time.

Havasucker you are so stupid or blinded by your ideology to even be honest to yourself. As an example you know exactly WHAT and WHEN I said and yet you now try to say things like, "everyone knows the party in power loses seats in a midterm" or "NOW people see the democrats are going to lose alot of seats." You seem to conveniently forget I not only told you they were not just going to lose a few seats but so massive would be the loss that the republicans would take back the house. Not only that but at a time when I said that (ALMOST 2 YEARS AGO), most were saying, "conservatism was dead". I told you that the republicans running were going to run on a very conservative platform. You cant edmit with the evidence being as clear as it is that what I told you would happen went against everything the MSM was saying and what I told you then is EXACTLY what is happening now.

That is as bad as when you said that, boy you were way off on your projections of the last TWO quarters of subscriber growth. You forget that, first I said, I was under estimating several times and that my projections were going to be AT LEAST this number (which clearly tells people that they will be most likely higher then that, but in no way, shape, or form, lower), You also forget that my AT LEAST numbers were much higher then the other peoples projections (in many cases) by almost double.

So the reason you are a dumb twit is because after those kinds of statements you somehow dont think most think you are a dumb twit.

[john]

Thanks for the advice. Fortunately or unfortunately, I march to my own tune (maybe toon as it turns out.) Political mechanations? I can't agree to that. The economy sucks and continues to suck, and ain't going anywhere fast. There is real reason to be be bearish.

Though, as a counter point, my companies business albeit a little down, is still pretty good all things considered - which means companies are making things -- for now.

I think you need to take another look at YOUR OWN THREAD: "Why aren't business's hiring?" You know full well it is not to get revenge against Obama and to purposely keep unemployment high. It is the polocies that Obama and the democrats have put into place that has caused them to not hire. Almost everything they have done is telling businesses that they are no friend of this administration and democrats, from the polocies to the actual words they use they have demonized most businesses. If you or anyone owned a business during this administration they would be doing just as they are, hording cash until they can predict more acturately that more PRO business polocies will be coming down the pike. Which party do you think that is at this point or at any other point in history.

I see you talk about housing yet nothing will happen in the housing market until people can feel at least some safty that THEY will ether keep their job or EVEN GET ONE. Need evidence of that, just look at intrest rates, a 15 year at just below 4% and housing is down?????? Are you kidding me and you are still wondering what is holding up the housing market. It is jobs and that is DIRECTLY connected to businesses which is DIRECTLY connected to the polocies of what the government is doing now. I will remind you that Bush gave us the shortest shallowest recession in HISTORY all the while having to deal with the tech bubble bursting and 911 that was supposed to have killed our economy almost over night. Yet some how the economy bore right through both of those two almost simultaneously terrible economic catastrophies to come out of it with record low unemployment (yes lets remember during that time we had under 5% unemployment and that during the Clinton years 5% was considered FULL EMPLOYMENT).

Lets not forget you dont get a job from someone in the lower tax brackets the democrats want the Bush tax cuts to remain for, you get the jobs from the ones in the % that they dont want the Bush tax cuts extended for. Hence why you dont see any hiring.

Also lets not for get that the bottom 45% do not pay federal income tax and many of those actually get money back they never put into the system. So what is more fare that the top 10% pay even more then the 90% OF THE TOTAL tax burden, they already are paying OR that the people not paying anything get even more back then they already are.

There is reward for taking risk, I do not begrudge anyone that just wants a steady/safe paycheck. What I begrudge is when those same people believe the ones that give them that safe steady paycheck should some how have to pay a bigger percentage then them just because when they risked everything it turned out they were correct enough to give those same people the only thing they wanted, which is the security of a steady paycheck.

No one is stopping them from taking that very same risk their employers took. If they want what their employers have then take the risk of losing EVERYTHING. If not sit down shut up and be crateful your employer was smart and lucky enough to be able to have a business you are getting your paycheck from.

[Havakasha]

Hey John, please take your egotistical nonsense to the politics thread.
I know you have some trouble with spelling so here it is spelled out.
P O L I T I C S. And please for god's sake stop "TUTING" your own horn.
Didnt anyone ever teach you any humility and manners?

I dont believe you answered my questions which is par for the course for you.
I know your modus operandi is to always leave "outs" for yourself, so please look at the questions and be as specific as possible in your answers. Thanks

1. If the Bush tax cuts are rescinded for the top 2% then tell me what going over the "cliff" means and tell us for how long it will stay over the "cliff".

2. When (and if) they raise the capital gains tax rate (5% raise i believe) tell me about the market "carnage" you predict and for how long that will continue?

Please be very specific since we will be examining closely the correlations between those 2 events and the cataclysm you describe. And please do try
harder to avoid abusive language. Thanks

P.S. There is a rumour you are the same guy who says the earths temperature is getting colder, and that hybrids, plug-ins, and electrics will "never" be "economically and technologically viable". You can read about it on the POLITICS thread.

[Sirius Roadkill]

Morgan Stanley Is Increasing FY Subscriber, Revenue, EBITDA Estimates For Sirius XM Radio

Written on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 9:54amBy Chip Brian

Morgan Stanley analysts are increasing their full year subscriber, revenue, and EBITDA estimates for Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) following strong Q2 subscriber additions and stronger-than-expected revenue and EBITDA growth.
Analysts David Gober, Benjamin Swinburne and Cynthia Rupeka said, "After completing the Sirius/ XM merger, a refinancing of its balance sheet, and weathering the recent recession, Sirius XM has emerged as a more stable company with several key opportunities. However, the company will likely continue to experience volatility in its share price as its ultimate free cash flow outlook becomes clearer. We remain Not-Rated as we believe that equity values will remain highly volatile due to relatively high leverage and still relatively small free cash flow."

The bank sees fiscal 2010 EPS of $0.02 and fiscal 2011 EPS of $0.03.

[SiriuslyLong]

I think you need to take another look at YOUR OWN THREAD: "Why aren't business's hiring?" You know full well it is not to get revenge against Obama and to purposely keep unemployment high. It is the polocies that Obama and the democrats have put into place that has caused them to not hire. Almost everything they have done is telling businesses that they are no friend of this administration and democrats, from the polocies to the actual words they use they have demonized most businesses. If you or anyone owned a business during this administration they would be doing just as they are, hording cash until they can predict more acturately that more PRO business polocies will be coming down the pike. Which party do you think that is at this point or at any other point in history.

Actually John, my company has hired TOO MANY people recently between manufacturing and admin. The admin hires burn my ass - nothing but overhead.

[SiriuslyLong]

Morgan Stanley Is Increasing FY Subscriber, Revenue, EBITDA Estimates For Sirius XM Radio

Written on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 9:54amBy Chip Brian

Morgan Stanley analysts are increasing their full year subscriber, revenue, and EBITDA estimates for Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) following strong Q2 subscriber additions and stronger-than-expected revenue and EBITDA growth.
Analysts David Gober, Benjamin Swinburne and Cynthia Rupeka said, "After completing the Sirius/ XM merger, a refinancing of its balance sheet, and weathering the recent recession, Sirius XM has emerged as a more stable company with several key opportunities. However, the company will likely continue to experience volatility in its share price as its ultimate free cash flow outlook becomes clearer. We remain Not-Rated as we believe that equity values will remain highly volatile due to relatively high leverage and still relatively small free cash flow."

The bank sees fiscal 2010 EPS of $0.02 and fiscal 2011 EPS of $0.03.

Good news, but $0.03 2011 EPS doesn't seem to be thrilling anyone today. And truthfully, it shouldn't. Now, if we can slide the 3 left one spot........ And how could that happen???

[Havakasha]

Your dreaming about .30. Good luck.lol. (dont worry i know you're joking)
More subscribers and pay down that debt ahead of schedule (as well lower rates over longer time frame).