Originally Posted by
john
First I would not be overly concerned if OEMs do fall off during the 4th quarter, for a few reasons. One is that as I mentioned penitration rates in at least Toyota will pick up. Two the 4th quarter is mainly a retail quarter in the since that they will not loss as many retail as they normally do. Third I dont mind if they get less OEM sales, for the reasons you and I mentioned before, which is they have alot of extra subs to play with at this point. What I mean by that is if they had actually just got what they said they would have and a number which I know would have given them a much better standing on all the other metrics then at this point alone they have more then 250,000 subs to lose (not counting any subs they will have in this 3rd quarter).
As I said, I totally expected the market to come down and even the economy to tank again. If you remember I also said that if there was one stock (besides most electric companies) that I would keep my money in it would be SIRIXM. Now that is not to say that it wont drop but that it will keep its value better then many others out there and when it comes back, SIRIXM will most likely be the one that will be in a position to take off first. The reasons are that SIRIXM has shown a unbelievable retention rate to keep its paying subscribers and while the self paying subs are enough at this point to pay for the huge amount of new ones coming on board, they are barely in that position and need to have a slow down in getting new subs to show just how well they are providing profit to the bottom line. I do believe that once the economy finishes with this down turn there will be such pent up demand that there will be a rush of money coming back. The reason I say this is that what we are seeing at this point is people have learned a good lesson and not only are they paying off their debt at a huge rate but they are saving more then they almost have ever before.
That all depends on if the republicans can take over the House and the Senate (and they learned the same lessons as the people have), to cut the crap out of spending and get back to their conservative values. That also depends on if they can get ALL the Bush tax cuts extended (you know the same ones that democrats say put us into this DEEP recession, forgetting totally about the housing bubble the democrats created). If that does not happen then no matter what happens in the House and Senate then you will see a terrible economy for a very very very long time. While you will see the market come back a bit when the republicans take over, much of that will be on the expectation that they will be able to not only stop (and reverse) the spending Obama and the democrats are doing but to extend those Bush tax cuts and make it a more favorable environment for businesses so they can start hiring again.
So here is a recap. Like I said before, the market will start to tank (it looks like I was a few days off of when it would start to happen). Then WHEN the republicans take the house it will come back some (depending on what the polls are saying it looks like (the blood bath demorcrats are going to take) it may start to come back some sooner). If they not only win back the house but the senate also then it will come back alot more (the reason is people will feel there is a better chance that things will change or at least be stopped from the direction they are going). You will not see the market come totally back though if those Bush tax cuts are not extended and it will most likely fall again and so will the economy if they are not. Trust me, money and businesses will wait to, not only see if those Bush tax cuts get extended but to see who they are extended for AND how long they are extended.
Not to tute my own horn but, I predicted here at Sirius buzz almost two years ago. That basically, not only will the democrats take this country so far to the left so fast that is will scare the hell out of the majority of people so mush that republicans will take back the House and maybe the Senate but that you will see the people running on a way more conservative base then we even saw in 94. Everything I predicted then is now coming true today. I dont have ESP, It is called common sense and logic.
P.S. Only because Havasucker likes to say that everyone knows the party in power loses SOME seats in a mid term election. Havasucker, NO ONE and I mean ON ONE, was saying that the republicans were going to take back the house and maybe the Senate, like I TOLD you they would. Now while that still has not happen, some of the polls are not only showing that the democrats will not just lose some seats but many and not just take back the house but maybe the senate. But also that the democrats may lose up to 60 seats in the house.