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Thread: Sirius Thread Month of AUGUST 2010

  1. #31
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I see Tyler has some news on the OEM front and it looks to be good for the subcriber count front. If they get anywhere near that 1 million (say 990,000) then we will see another aprox. 110,000 subs added to the (at least) 140,000 they got last month. adding those together will get 250,000 subs with a month to go. If Tyler is correct then I feel safe in saying that they will get (at least) 300,000 subs for the quarter (based on 900,000 OEM sales in the month of Sep.). Now because of churn that will be higher then what we have seen so far, I dont expect the final subscriber number will be as huge as it was last quarter, even if they get about the same OEM numbers as they did last quarter. That does not mean they will not be AT LEAST as much as I am saying they will be though. Always remember I am giving you a base line number and while there are subtractions that will have to be added in, the additions that I dont account for will almost always more then make up for any of those subtrations in subs such as a, higher churn will be cancelled out by retail and in the coming 4th quarter a lower OEM sales number will be somewhat cancelled out by a slightly higher penitration number (the new models come into play in the 4th quarter and so that means so do any new penitration levels on those new models).
    I agree with your thesis . . . now if only the share price would begin to move in concert with the fundamental realities of the underlying performance of the business enterprise . . . I might just have something to get excited about.

  2. #32
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...amazoncom.aspx

    "Sirius XM also stands alone

    Is there any name other than Sirius XM that comes to mind in discussing premium radio? There shouldn't be. Terrestrial and enhanced HD radio is free. Pandora offers a premium subscription -- where folks pay $3 a month for higher quality, ad-free streams -- but the music discovery site is widely enjoyed as a free site.

    The nearest match to Sirius XM would be the subscription-based streaming services. However, despite blue-chip backing in Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) with the Zune Pass and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) with Napster, these are niche offerings. The canvassing of smartphones are making in-car connectivity easier than ever, but these services aren't gaining any kind of automotive traction. If they haven't gone mainstream now, they probably never will.

    Pandora, Napster, and Zune Pass are also limited to pre-recorded music, lacking the live programming that differentiates radio from just slipping in a CD or shuffling through a media player.

    Sirius XM has grown to 19.5 million subscribers, seemingly uncontested. It's hard to fathom any serious challengers. Automakers already have deals through Sirius or XM for factory-installed receivers with meaty incentives to match. Who's going to disrupt that?

    The only realistic threat would come from the likes of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), if they should ever take advantage of the growing iOS and Android user bases to launch premium radio offerings.

    This may very well happen. Apple acquired music-streaming specialist Lala back in December and Google Music is arming itself accordingly.

    Having said that, guess who already streams premium radio through iPhones and Android handsets? Yes, Sirius XM"

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  4. #34
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    short interest

    Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) was a significant drop as the company keeps raising guidance. August 13 showed 184.76 million shares short, down a sharp -11.5% from 208.65 million on July 30.

  5. #35
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    markets have now turned green . . looks like the selling may be done and new long positions being taken heading-in to September

    siri looks to have held support at $0.96 and is trending up . . . or should I say getting ready to be "walked-up" now that the pros have secured their "buys" and the shorts have found another convenient exit
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 08-25-2010 at 02:48 PM.

  6. #36
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Up 3 cents on big volume with 6 minutes to close. The buying seemed to start at 2 PM. Run baby, run.

  7. #37
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    yup, that confirms it . . the sell-off is done, the shorts are out clean . . new long positions back-in at $0.96

    how convenient

    today starts the walk-up . . I wonder how much longer David Bank will be carrying around that big SAC of his

    will be interested to watch the volume next couple of days . . could snowball up if we touch $1.02; there is definitely some catch-up at play

    RR alone should have taken it to $1.18 . . . we'll see

    p.s. ignore after hours trades

  8. #38
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
    Nice analysis, John. I like the way you see the number of sub additions over Q3 and Q4. Makes perfect sense and no doubt if there is a surprise SXM will surprise to the upside imho. Only unknown is the economy, but SXM has already shown that it can succeed in a slow economy.


    First I would not be overly concerned if OEMs do fall off during the 4th quarter, for a few reasons. One is that as I mentioned penitration rates in at least Toyota will pick up. Two the 4th quarter is mainly a retail quarter in the since that they will not loss as many retail as they normally do. Third I dont mind if they get less OEM sales, for the reasons you and I mentioned before, which is they have alot of extra subs to play with at this point. What I mean by that is if they had actually just got what they said they would have and a number which I know would have given them a much better standing on all the other metrics then at this point alone they have more then 250,000 subs to lose (not counting any subs they will have in this 3rd quarter).

    As I said, I totally expected the market to come down and even the economy to tank again. If you remember I also said that if there was one stock (besides most electric companies) that I would keep my money in it would be SIRIXM. Now that is not to say that it wont drop but that it will keep its value better then many others out there and when it comes back, SIRIXM will most likely be the one that will be in a position to take off first. The reasons are that SIRIXM has shown a unbelievable retention rate to keep its paying subscribers and while the self paying subs are enough at this point to pay for the huge amount of new ones coming on board, they are barely in that position and need to have a slow down in getting new subs to show just how well they are providing profit to the bottom line. I do believe that once the economy finishes with this down turn there will be such pent up demand that there will be a rush of money coming back. The reason I say this is that what we are seeing at this point is people have learned a good lesson and not only are they paying off their debt at a huge rate but they are saving more then they almost have ever before.

    That all depends on if the republicans can take over the House and the Senate (and they learned the same lessons as the people have), to cut the crap out of spending and get back to their conservative values. That also depends on if they can get ALL the Bush tax cuts extended (you know the same ones that democrats say put us into this DEEP recession, forgetting totally about the housing bubble the democrats created). If that does not happen then no matter what happens in the House and Senate then you will see a terrible economy for a very very very long time. While you will see the market come back a bit when the republicans take over, much of that will be on the expectation that they will be able to not only stop (and reverse) the spending Obama and the democrats are doing but to extend those Bush tax cuts and make it a more favorable environment for businesses so they can start hiring again.


    So here is a recap. Like I said before, the market will start to tank (it looks like I was a few days off of when it would start to happen). Then WHEN the republicans take the house it will come back some (depending on what the polls are saying it looks like (the blood bath demorcrats are going to take) it may start to come back some sooner). If they not only win back the house but the senate also then it will come back alot more (the reason is people will feel there is a better chance that things will change or at least be stopped from the direction they are going). You will not see the market come totally back though if those Bush tax cuts are not extended and it will most likely fall again and so will the economy if they are not. Trust me, money and businesses will wait to, not only see if those Bush tax cuts get extended but to see who they are extended for AND how long they are extended.


    Not to tute my own horn but, I predicted here at Sirius buzz almost two years ago. That basically, not only will the democrats take this country so far to the left so fast that is will scare the hell out of the majority of people so mush that republicans will take back the House and maybe the Senate but that you will see the people running on a way more conservative base then we even saw in 94. Everything I predicted then is now coming true today. I dont have ESP, It is called common sense and logic.


    P.S. Only because Havasucker likes to say that everyone knows the party in power loses SOME seats in a mid term election. Havasucker, NO ONE and I mean ON ONE, was saying that the republicans were going to take back the house and maybe the Senate, like I TOLD you they would. Now while that still has not happen, some of the polls are not only showing that the democrats will not just lose some seats but many and not just take back the house but maybe the senate. But also that the democrats may lose up to 60 seats in the house.

  9. #39
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    I agree with your thesis . . . now if only the share price would begin to move in concert with the fundamental realities of the underlying performance of the business enterprise . . . I might just have something to get excited about.
    Sirius Roadkill, While I think SIRIXM will be placed to hold its own, I believe it will even be held down with the market the way it is. The only hope is that even in a bad market there are people that look for good growth (or at least can hold their own) companies to be in or at least ones that will be ready to break first when the recovery happens.

  10. #40
    Havakasha is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    First I would not be overly concerned if OEMs do fall off during the 4th quarter, for a few reasons. One is that as I mentioned penitration rates in at least Toyota will pick up. Two the 4th quarter is mainly a retail quarter in the since that they will not loss as many retail as they normally do. Third I dont mind if they get less OEM sales, for the reasons you and I mentioned before, which is they have alot of extra subs to play with at this point. What I mean by that is if they had actually just got what they said they would have and a number which I know would have given them a much better standing on all the other metrics then at this point alone they have more then 250,000 subs to lose (not counting any subs they will have in this 3rd quarter).

    As I said, I totally expected the market to come down and even the economy to tank again. If you remember I also said that if there was one stock (besides most electric companies) that I would keep my money in it would be SIRIXM. Now that is not to say that it wont drop but that it will keep its value better then many others out there and when it comes back, SIRIXM will most likely be the one that will be in a position to take off first. The reasons are that SIRIXM has shown a unbelievable retention rate to keep its paying subscribers and while the self paying subs are enough at this point to pay for the huge amount of new ones coming on board, they are barely in that position and need to have a slow down in getting new subs to show just how well they are providing profit to the bottom line. I do believe that once the economy finishes with this down turn there will be such pent up demand that there will be a rush of money coming back. The reason I say this is that what we are seeing at this point is people have learned a good lesson and not only are they paying off their debt at a huge rate but they are saving more then they almost have ever before.

    That all depends on if the republicans can take over the House and the Senate (and they learned the same lessons as the people have), to cut the crap out of spending and get back to their conservative values. That also depends on if they can get ALL the Bush tax cuts extended (you know the same ones that democrats say put us into this DEEP recession, forgetting totally about the housing bubble the democrats created). If that does not happen then no matter what happens in the House and Senate then you will see a terrible economy for a very very very long time. While you will see the market come back a bit when the republicans take over, much of that will be on the expectation that they will be able to not only stop (and reverse) the spending Obama and the democrats are doing but to extend those Bush tax cuts and make it a more favorable environment for businesses so they can start hiring again.


    So here is a recap. Like I said before, the market will start to tank (it looks like I was a few days off of when it would start to happen). Then WHEN the republicans take the house it will come back some (depending on what the polls are saying it looks like (the blood bath demorcrats are going to take) it may start to come back some sooner). If they not only win back the house but the senate also then it will come back alot more (the reason is people will feel there is a better chance that things will change or at least be stopped from the direction they are going). You will not see the market come totally back though if those Bush tax cuts are not extended and it will most likely fall again and so will the economy if they are not. Trust me, money and businesses will wait to, not only see if those Bush tax cuts get extended but to see who they are extended for AND how long they are extended.


    Not to tute my own horn but, I predicted here at Sirius buzz almost two years ago. That basically, not only will the democrats take this country so far to the left so fast that is will scare the hell out of the majority of people so mush that republicans will take back the House and maybe the Senate but that you will see the people running on a way more conservative base then we even saw in 94. Everything I predicted then is now coming true today. I dont have ESP, It is called common sense and logic.


    P.S. Only because Havasucker likes to say that everyone knows the party in power loses SOME seats in a mid term election. Havasucker, NO ONE and I mean ON ONE, was saying that the republicans were going to take back the house and maybe the Senate, like I TOLD you they would. Now while that still has not happen, some of the polls are not only showing that the democrats will not just lose some seats but many and not just take back the house but maybe the senate. But also that the democrats may lose up to 60 seats in the house.
    i love how John keeps trying to cover ALL bases in his predictions. I will hold you to your original predictions. "not to tute my own horn". LMFAO. Thats all you ever do john.

    And john its TOOT not "tute".

    You do realize john that you could be right about what happens in the Senate and the House and still be wrong in your analysis of why its happening. i know that is something you would never be willing to entertain.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-25-2010 at 11:57 PM.

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