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Thread: Sirius thread weeks june 28-july 12 2010

  1. #41
    Havakasha is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    John

    How the hell could you have been off by ~ 85-100% Must be the conservativism in your blood!
    I'll take 583k versus your prediction of 300-330k anyday of the week my friend!
    Have a great day!

    JS
    Yeah just what i was thinking . 95 to 98% accuracy? How the hell could he be off that much when he promised us he is almost always right when he "uses his common sense, lodgic, history, and facts". Now i will have to put his SXM comments in the same category as his dreadfully inaccurate political comments. Damn i am sorely disappointed.

    Well at least its great news for SXM.

  2. #42
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    C'mon oh tanned one; tell them how wonderful the weather is here in Michigan (and I took the next 8 days off)!!
    You sure picked a great 8 days off for vacation!
    Hope you're enjoying them.

    Julie

  3. #43
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    You sure picked a great 8 days off for vacation!
    Hope you're enjoying them.

    Julie
    I am! Though I really need to do some yardwork, but it's too damn hot! So I sit around in the AC by myself going back and forth with Havakasha. Beats working though. I'll water the gardens in a while. That might be my big thing today lol. And I will get a workout. after that.................... I'll have to figure something out. If you have any ideas......

  4. #44
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I am! Though I really need to do some yardwork, but it's too damn hot! So I sit around in the AC by myself going back and forth with Havakasha. Beats working though. I'll water the gardens in a while. That might be my big thing today lol. And I will get a workout. after that.................... I'll have to figure something out. If you have any ideas......
    I was going to suggest doing MY yardwork, but you already nixed that idea.
    So I guess it's going back and forth with Havakasha

    Julie

  5. #45
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    I was going to suggest doing MY yardwork, but you already nixed that idea.
    So I guess it's going back and forth with Havakasha

    Julie
    Good one!

    So I've already watered the carrot patch. I'm going to drink a red bull and go to the gym then watch the soccer match. SIRI is holding nice after the good news.

  6. #46
    john is offline
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    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    John

    How the hell could you have been off by ~ 85-100% Must be the conservativism in your blood!
    I'll take 583k versus your prediction of 300-330k anyday of the week my friend!
    Have a great day!

    JS
    What are you kidding me??? Do I really now have to also pull up old post for you. I said SEVERAL times, I was low balling it. Not only did I say that I was most likely low in my projections but I was the only one that was as high as saying at least 300,000 to 330,000. On top of that, I told you that I only was using OEMs, NOT retail and used OEMs. I also told you that if churn held steady and that I not only think it will be normal but that it will most likely be less then normal churn. Ho and it does not end there I told you all, that I DONT think being included in the Russell Index will bring the PPS up but would expect a pull back and then by early next month (July) you would see the stock PPS go up because of the ACTUAL OEM numbers coming out and that, I think Mel will probably come out with good news and the CC will be fast approching. MY god what more do you want, bitch. When everyone else was telling you different who was it that told you almost exactly what ended up happening.


    P.S. So suck my ass.













    I know you loved that last part. I also know you have seen those post inwhich I said all those things.



    Havasucker still thinks I have ESP though.

  7. #47
    doclogic is offline
    Junior Member
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    Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 21
    I don't understand comments like the last few words of that post on a seemingly friendly and educated message board.......this isn't IHUB

    no matter how right anyone is or think they might be, thats ridiculous.

  8. #48
    Havakasha is offline
    Damn John i wish you had just said 583,249 subs since I can now see you were thinking that.

    Have to say John you were the closest of them all on your estimate. At least the ones i saw.

    On 'climategate' boy thats another matter. You werent even in the ballpark. Your ESP must be failing you of late. '95 tp 98% accuracy? LOL. Embarassing.

  9. #49
    john is offline
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    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Here for the the dumb twits that must have missed this post:

    "Ok the final OEM numbers are out and I said I would update as they came in. So, While I was hoping for a little better June OEM sales numbers, I still see between 300,000 and 330,000 new net subs for this quarter.

    The breakdown (as I see it)

    April = 85,000 net subs

    May = 150,000 net subs

    June = 85,000 net subs


    I will remind you that:

    Those numbers include a NORMAL all-in churn of just over 500,000 per month (included in that 500,000 number are any losses from retail and used OEMs).

    They do not include ANY NEW retail OR used OEMs.

    Fathers Day, will help retail this quarter.

    So if anything I believe I will be a little low if churn holds steady to what the normal has been.

    Churn should be lower due to the fact they got less subs in 1st and 2nd quarter of last year. So the same gos the less subs the year before the less contracts that come up for renewal a year later.

    Last quarter they had about 885,000 OEMs sold per month and still had 170,000 new net subs. This quarter they got about 1,000,000 per month. That is about 300,000 more OEMs sold (300,000 X .6 = 180,000). So from that you could say 170,000 + 180,000 = 350,000"

    http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthre...?t=4109&page=3




    Do you now see those factors?????


    Hummm, so we will see what retail adds were, we will see how many Used OEMs there were, and we will see just what I said a most likely lower churn saved them.

    For the dumb twits out there that still dont get it, the .02% lower churn on selfpaid subs (the company reported) ALONE saved them almost a 100,000 subs. Add that to my number and you get to 400,000 to 430,000. Just from subscribers saved from a lower churn alone.

    Only a twit could not figure out what the possible sub numbers could be after I gave you all the information you needed to get it.

    Facts:

    1) I told you, there would be AT LEAST 300,000 to 330,000 (do you understand what "AT LEAST" means???)

    2) I told you, I ONLY included OEMs. That means:

    3) I told you, THERE IS STILL RETAIL to add in.

    4) I told you, THERE IS STILL USED OEMs to add in.

    5) I told you, if churn holds to normal then they will get AT LEAST 300,000 to 330,000.

    6) I ALSO told you, most likely churn will be lower then normal.





    P.S. I think we all know which dumb twit needs extra help here.

    P.S.S. I just heard BP just did an investigation on itself and found itself not to be responsible for any wrong doing in the spill it was just a freak accident.

    If you believe that then you would believe it is ok for anyone to do an investigation on itself. OR like they did in climategate.
    Last edited by john; 07-07-2010 at 04:33 PM.

  10. #50
    Havakasha is offline
    Ah no sense of humor at all. Surprise, surprise. 538,249 minus 330,000=
    218, 240 off. Not bad. LOL. just playin with you John. Enjoy the hot day.
    But damn i wish you had just put down what you thought the figure was then
    i wouldnt have to have read your, at leasts, and all the rest.

    Only took you a few hours to decide you couldnt refute the
    150 page 7 month independent investigation so you better just try some
    old hocus pocus and say it couldnt be true. Wow John you are even lamer
    than i ever thought. Read the report because its quite comprehensive and
    thorough unlike your quick jump to conclusions. There are exonnerations and criticisms. Glad you were FINALLY able to utter the words BP. ONLY took you about a month. I almost forgot it was their plant when listening to you complain about everyone else. LOL. I cant wait for the independent report on BP. Let me see im guessing they are going to find out some wrongdoing by BP. Lol.
    Good ole john almost always about "95 to 98%" accuracy in all his opinions.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 07-07-2010 at 05:05 PM.

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