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Thread: Sirius thread weeks june 28-july 12 2010

  1. #101
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Does anyone find it interesting that we are 3 - 4 weeks away from the 2QCC and there has been no run up? Maybe the pattern is changing? Maybe this time around good results will lead to a "pop"? Or maybe that's wishful thinking? Mel has to address two things - debt and the number of shares outstanding. That's what's keeping SIRI down.

  2. #102
    Selena777 is offline
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    I was under the impression that there would be a superficial and temporary dip after the 2QCC.

  3. #103
    candleman is offline
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    We're trading just above 92 cents right now.

    I think this is an excellent time to buy in order to take advantage of any run associated with the quartery report.

  4. #104
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Selena777 View Post
    I was under the impression that there would be a superficial and temporary dip after the 2QCC.
    That's usually the case. A nice run up, then the price goes down. I am thinking about picking up some more shares.

  5. #105
    Boomer is offline
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    Now this is a nice positive article:

    http://www.investorplace.com/stock-p...adio-siri.html


    5 Reasons to Tune Your Portfolio to Sirius XM Radio (SIRI)
    Here's five reasons why the next move for Sirius will be higher
    July 19, 2010 | By Jim Woods


    When you mention cult stocks that trade around a buck, one of the first names that pops to mind is Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI). The satellite radio purveyor is a classic case of a company with an exciting new technology with the potential to revolutionize an entire industry, in this case the so-called “terrestrial” radio space. To a large extent, that revolution has indeed taken place. Yet since the July 2008 merger of XM Satellite Radio and Satellite CD Radio (Sirius), the new SIRI shares have had a pretty tough slog. Although the shares now trade nearly nine times higher than their March 2009 nadir of a measly 6 cents, they are still light years away from the $2.68 they traded at just two years ago. So, will traders still tune in to SIRI, or will they turn their portfolios off to satellite? Here is five reasons why the next move for Sirius will be higher.

    Very strong earnings. In May, Sirius reported very strong fiscal first-quarter earnings of $41.6 million, or a penny per share, on revenue of $670.6 million. The bottom-line figure beat Street expectations for flat earnings. The company also said it added 171,441 subscribers in fiscal Q1, a far cry from the loss of 404,422 in the same quarter a year ago. The cost of those new subscribers also fell from $61 to $59. The company’s free cash flow missed expectations; however, the lack of free cash was due to Sirius paying off its most expensive debt earlier than anticipated. Sirius actually paid off $61 million in debt that came with a price tag of 15% interest, and that reduced debt will likely contribute to its bottom line in the coming quarters.

    Strong subscriber growth in Q2. On July 7, Sirius announced that it added 583,249 net subscribers in the second quarter. That number compared extremely favorably with the 186,000 in the second quarter of 2009. The company also raised subscriber gain guidance for the year, saying it expects net new subscribers of approx. 1.1 million. The previous full-year estimate was for just 750,000 new subs in the year. The gains in the second quarter give Sirius a record-high 19,527,448 subscribers, an increase of more than a million subscribers from the quarter ended June 30, 2009.

    Zero competition. The strong subscriber growth means that consumers now are opting to spend money on discretionary items such as satellite radio. The more discretionary income available, the better Sirius will do. That’s because unlike other media choices such as cable or satellite TV, Sirius has no competition in the satellite radio space. They are the one and only customer option, and as such they are perfectly positioned to benefit from any boom in the willingness to adopt their king of service.

    Rising auto sales. One big driver for Sirius is the expected improving metrics in U.S. auto sales. The company’s satellite radio systems are intimately linked with auto sales, as the service is primarily distributed through automakers. According to a recent report by Standard & Poor’s, new U.S. vehicle sales are on pace to rise 12.7% to 11.7 million units in 2010, and another 15% to 13.5 million in 2011. Improving auto sales will likely translate into more new Sirius subscribers, as the company has distribution deals with Chrysler, Ford (F), GM, Honda (HMC) and Toyota (TM).

    Leveraging the fear factor (time to buy the dip). There’s been a lot of selling in SIRI since the market turned down in May, and though the stock held up nicely throughout most of June, there’s been a wave of selling in late-June and early July. That selling has pushed Sirius shares below their 50-day moving average (see chart below), but they remain well above their 200-day moving average. With all of the aforementioned positives going for Sirius, traders could look at the recent dip in the shares as a great buying opportunity. Recent history tells us the stock has garnered big buying after falling below its 50-day average (December, March, May), and if that trend continues then the current dip means a renewed chance for traders to profit.

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  6. #106
    candleman is offline
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    A nice rebound today. Up to almost 96 cents. It was a GREAT idea to pick up some of those .92's yesterday.

  7. #107
    Selena777 is offline
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    So, do you think that this is the beginning of the run up, or is it too soon to tell?

  8. #108
    candleman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Selena777 View Post
    So, do you think that this is the beginning of the run up, or is it too soon to tell?
    I think we are just rebounding from yesterdays dip. I don't think we'll see a big run up this time around. It's kind of a been there, done that sort of a thing, and the runs haven't held in the past.

    I think we'll see 1.05 within a week and it will be time to sell some off again and wait for it to drop below .95 and buy it again.

    That seems to be the trading range right now.

  9. #109
    Boomer is offline
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    Maybe this news from Edmunds will keep the run going...

    Car Sales Pace Accelerating as Deal-Seekers Come Out for Summer Sell-Down, Explains Edmunds.comFont size: A | A | A3:56 PM ET 7/20/10 | BusinessWire
    Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, reports that new cars are selling at a rate close to 12 million SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) so far this month. However, industry observers should not misread this as a sign of recovery for the industry.

    "July and August sales may suggest a rebound but the underlying trends haven't changed. The market mostly consists of deal-seekers today, and July and August are historically among the best months for picking up bargains," stated Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. "The cloud behind the silver lining is that September, October and November will probably be soft, since the old model inventory is largely gone by then, and so are the deals -- or so car-shoppers have become conditioned to expect."

    Edmunds.com analysis indicates that in June 2010, 88 percent of new cars sold were from the 2010 model year. Traditionally by November, three-quarters of new cars sold are from the new model year and the old model year does not fully sell out until June of the following year.

    Consumer psychology also drives people to believe that car incentives are high now, but in truth most car incentives are not particularly generous today, stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Inventory is relatively low and automakers are reluctant to cut into profit margins more than necessary. However, brands are advertising big sales events and consumers are responding."

    Caldwell pointed to Nissan as perhaps the biggest winner this month, as early figures suggest that the brand may be up approximately 25 percent from June's levels. "Nissan has the most aggressive deals in the industry; the company is proving that business can be bought today."

    "Remember that comparisons with last summer are not valid," reminded Edmunds.com Senior Economist Rebecca Braeu. "In the first part of July 2009, consumers stood by, anticipating the Cash for Clunkers program, and then later in the month they rushed to dealerships to take advantage. These were not typical patterns."


    Here is a Link to the Edmunds article with the info in the news wire

    http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/07/...scom-says.html
    Last edited by Boomer; 07-20-2010 at 05:00 PM.

  10. #110
    john is offline
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    Boomer, I like that for a few reasons. First it comes from Edmonds and they are one of the (if not the only) best places to get good close estimates on car sales. So while it sounds to good to be true coming from edmonds helps me in thinking it will be true. Second they are just talking about car sales and if they are correct then I could care less about Oct., and Nov. tanking because that will be in the 4th quarter and SIRIXM has retail to help those 4th quarter numbers. Third while they are talking about it not being the recovery everyone hopes for that is also ok with me because I disagree with Tyler here and believe 900,000 OEMs to be the number at present (as the number of subscribers increases for SIRIXM so will the number of OEMs needed to keep up with churn) and they can afford some lack luster OEM numbers. I will reminmd you and everyone else it was during last years terrible OEM numbers that SIRIXM was doing it best in turning a very positive EBITDA and FCF positive. I say that was mainly due to the terrible OEM numbers. Now if they are correct in what they say then that mean at least 350,000 subscribers in the 3rd quarter. The logic and math is simple to get to a 12 million SAAR rate that means Jul. and Aug. will have to be at least 1.1 to 1.15 million, that means that for each of those months they will have a sub addition of around 160,000 to 170,000, if churn is normal. I will be looking forword to see how close the actual numbers are to Edmonds projections. But if they are close then I feel comfortable with saying that not only will SIRIXM be breaking the 1 MILLION subscriber (for the year) mark by the 3rd quarter but will most likely be over 20 million by the end of the year.

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