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Thread: Sirius thread weeks june 28-july 12 2010

  1. #21
    Hopeful is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: Vancouver Island Canada Posts: 583
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Hey Julie...Hopeful

    Julie...hope vacation was a blast...

    Hopeful...How's the weather up there! Brother-in-law...said Seattle's weather has been pretty dreary this spring/summer?

    Just Sirius
    Hey Just Sirius,

    Well the weather up here is like fall. Cold for this time of year, cloudy and rain... I am rather enjoying it right now ! Julie knows how much I love rain!!!

    We are getting our times of sun but no warmth... We have been about 39F - 45F under seasonal average temperature!

    I rather enjoy it lol, how is your brother-in-law dealing with it? How is your weather this year where you are?

    Take care,

    Hopeful

  2. #22
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    Dr. Dave Where have you been and where are all your purrrty
    charts!!!

    Julie (who doesn't know how to read them but still thinks they look nice)
    Lol, I actually decided to take a break when the market was getting a little toppy. I have a couple of things now, but not much. I haven't really popped in to the normal thread because we haven't been trading the same things... I was out of qasp a long long time ago. About the only one I talk to much about stuff is the guy that introduced me to siri. Last we spoke about prices I was looking for about 0.91 to hit based on this symmetrical triangle pattern... looks like I was off a little. Then see what happens - so for the short term, if we rally, good, if the price creeps slightly upward, then not so good, or drops not so good. Since you like the purrty - I'll show you on a more colorful chart....



    Other than that, moving up north. Is it finally hot out where you live?
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 07-01-2010 at 10:47 PM.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  3. #23
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    Lol, I actually decided to take a break when the market was getting a little toppy. I have a couple of things now, but not much. I haven't really popped in to the normal thread because we haven't been trading the same things... I was out of qasp a long long time ago. About the only one I talk to much about stuff is the guy that introduced me to siri. Last we spoke about prices I was looking for about 0.91 to hit based on this symmetrical triangle pattern... looks like I was off a little. Then see what happens - so for the short term, if we rally, good, if the price creeps slightly upward, then not so good, or drops not so good. Since you like the purrty - I'll show you on a more colorful chart....



    Other than that, moving up north. Is it finally hot out where you live?

    Thanks for the splash of color Dave!

    Really beautiful weather here in Michigan. Sunny, warm days, mid 80's all week. In the 90's last week with lots of humidity. Very uncomfortable
    that hot. Of course when February rolls around I'll be thinking fondly
    of that stifling heat.

    Of course it could be worse, we could be living in Canada.

    Julie

    P.S. For all the wonderful Canadians out there, the last comment was made
    in jest, aimed at my Canadian friend, Hopeful.

  4. #24
    Hopeful is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    Thanks for the splash of color Dave!

    Really beautiful weather here in Michigan. Sunny, warm days, mid 80's all week. In the 90's last week with lots of humidity. Very uncomfortable
    that hot. Of course when February rolls around I'll be thinking fondly
    of that stifling heat.

    Of course it could be worse, we could be living in Canada.

    Julie

    P.S. For all the wonderful Canadians out there, the last comment was made
    in jest, aimed at my Canadian friend, Hopeful.

    You little BRAt Julie... Always being cute and a smart ass ! This stock is becoming quiet the dud eh?
    Last edited by Hopeful; 07-01-2010 at 11:38 PM.

  5. #25
    just sirius is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Location: San Antonio Posts: 1,181
    Hopeful

    Weather in SA...HOT and HUMID! But the pool is pretty refreshing! Brother in Law...actually likes the weather as well. He does alot of fly fishing!

    Sirius is trading more like the markets now...fundamentals look good. Give it some time! should run some going into CC in early Feb.

    JS



    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeful View Post
    Hey Just Sirius,

    Well the weather up here is like fall. Cold for this time of year, cloudy and rain... I am rather enjoying it right now ! Julie knows how much I love rain!!!

    We are getting our times of sun but no warmth... We have been about 39F - 45F under seasonal average temperature!

    I rather enjoy it lol, how is your brother-in-law dealing with it? How is your weather this year where you are?

    Take care,

    Hopeful
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  6. #26
    john is offline
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    Ok the final OEM numbers are out and I said I would update as they came in. So, While I was hoping for a little better June OEM sales numbers, I still see between 300,000 and 330,000 new net subs for this quarter.

    The breakdown (as I see it)

    April = 85,000 net subs

    May = 150,000 net subs

    June = 85,000 net subs


    I will remind you that:

    Those numbers include a NORMAL all-in churn of just over 500,000 per month (included in that 500,000 number are any losses from retail and used OEMs).

    They do not include ANY NEW retail OR used OEMs.

    Fathers Day, will help retail this quarter.

    So if anything I believe I will be a little low if churn holds steady to what the normal has been.

    Churn should be lower due to the fact they got less subs in 1st and 2nd quarter of last year. So the same gos the less subs the year before the less contracts that come up for renewal a year later.

    Last quarter they had about 885,000 OEMs sold per month and still had 170,000 new net subs. This quarter they got about 1,000,000 per month. That is about 300,000 more OEMs sold (300,000 X .6 = 180,000). So from that you could say 170,000 + 180,000 = 350,000.

  7. #27
    Boomer is offline
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    John, Your analysis seems logical...makes sense...300-330 K would be very good, very good indeed....hope you are right!


    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Ok the final OEM numbers are out and I said I would update as they came in. So, While I was hoping for a little better June OEM sales numbers, I still see between 300,000 and 330,000 new net subs for this quarter.

    The breakdown (as I see it)

    April = 85,000 net subs

    May = 150,000 net subs

    June = 85,000 net subs


    I will remind you that:

    Those numbers include a NORMAL all-in churn of just over 500,000 per month (included in that 500,000 number are any losses from retail and used OEMs).

    They do not include ANY NEW retail OR used OEMs.

    Fathers Day, will help retail this quarter.

    So if anything I believe I will be a little low if churn holds steady to what the normal has been.

    Churn should be lower due to the fact they got less subs in 1st and 2nd quarter of last year. So the same gos the less subs the year before the less contracts that come up for renewal a year later.

    Last quarter they had about 885,000 OEMs sold per month and still had 170,000 new net subs. This quarter they got about 1,000,000 per month. That is about 300,000 more OEMs sold (300,000 X .6 = 180,000). So from that you could say 170,000 + 180,000 = 350,000.

  8. #28
    just sirius is offline
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    John

    Good stuff as always! Thanks for the analysis! Hope you are right! But everyone on these boards knows...John is always right!!!!! haha

    JS
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  9. #29
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Thanks John, for the analysis.

    Where have you been? On vacation, enjoying our beautiful
    Michigan weather?

    Julie

  10. #30
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    John

    Good stuff as always! Thanks for the analysis! Hope you are right! But everyone on these boards knows...John is always right!!!!! haha

    JS
    God dam it, there you go again, putting words in my mouth. I did not say I was "always right", I said I am almost always right. To be more accurate I actually have said I am right 95 to 98% of the time. That just so happens to be what has turned out to be the percentage, when you use common sense, lodgic, history, and facts.

    I do not believe you will have to hope very much. I understand what Tyler is saying about the OEMs and how SIRIXM counts them at different times, the fact is though, that will not effect my prodiction at all. First of all, even the fact of what he says is true, there are other facts that are also true. Those are that most of the OEMs have been getting way better with each passing quarter, certainly more so with these past 3 quarters. I also believe that when taken as a whole, you can say that between GM, Ford and Chrysler they all are included BY AT LEAST, when the car is sold and therefore will be included in each current quarters numbers, and that they make up much of the OEM market and that when you figure in the others and that they are about a quarter or two lag time then that is not much of a concern for now. Second I also do not include any retail gains or USED OEM gains, so I believe they will more then make up for any of Tylers concerns.

    Listen, the numbers are the numbers and they say what they say. Those that know me, know I am not one to over project, if I can help it. I do not use some hyped up numbers like saying ,Ho reatail should be really great because of the IPOD that is why I use retail and used OEMs as more of a fudge factor then anything else. I think if anything I am acually on the low side of what they will say the net subscribers will be this quarter (if churn stays even semi normal). I dont see churn (being to much higher then normal), as to much of a factor ether because as I have said, they got way less subscribers in this quarter of LAST YEAR, and that will help in a HUGE way to keep pressure off churn this quarter.

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