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Thread: Get out of your long positions!

  1. #11
    Big Ben is offline
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    You should be sitting pretty by 4pm. FAz and FXP finished yesterday at 15.25 and 40.25, very nice entry points. They are trading nicely higher in premarket, 15.9 and 41.25, that usually bodes well for them and its Friday, nobody wants to be holding risk through the weekend. GL today. I will keep posting my moves, only because I am thrashing this market. I am up to 1600 of FAZ and 100 FXP, if FAZ pops to the high 17 range I will start to shave, FXP I will only sell if it get above 47-48 range. I have been making some nice moves lately. Today should be a good one if your shorting.

    DD

    PS...Did anyone listen to the girl from Georgia talk about Big Ben? She said he rolled into the room with his dick out and said what up? What a clown, who rolls in to the room with their genitals out? Good lord man, whats wrong with you? Win a couple super bowls and you don't need any game to get the girl, wtf....what a goofball. They should have went forward with some kind of charges, you can't whip out your goodies and start groping a young woman, whats wrong with people these day, good lord, what a clown.

  2. #12
    Big Ben is offline
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    Is anyone else jumping up and down about GS and BP? They are both taking a walk out to the wood shed. I love it. The mighty GS is being brought to its knees, same with BP. Down, down, down. Not one reason to buy either of these stocks, both have major downside risk. BP is going bankrupt, thank goodness, estimates are saying 20k barrels a day, big problems for them big.

    DDD
    Double Dip Depression on the way.

  3. #13
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post

    DDD
    Double Dip Depression on the way.
    As a person in the manufacturing segment touching a nice cross section of industries, I can tell you with 100% certainty that there is absolutely no sign of a slow down at this point. Most industries are reporting excellent sales. This trend started exactly one year ago. Dig around and you'll find my posts noting such.

    Other than tending to previously foreclosed properties, what signs are you seeing to call for a double dip?

    My short positions are getting slaughtered LOL.

  4. #14
    doclogic is offline
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    I'm taking a short position in DDD .... errr... Big Ben incorporated. I believe using the depression word at this time is taking it's toll and causing the Big Ben value to sink.

  5. #15
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by doclogic View Post
    I'm taking a short position in DDD .... errr... Big Ben incorporated. I believe using the depression word at this time is taking it's toll and causing the Big Ben value to sink.
    Big Ben is a tool.

  6. #16
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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  7. #17
    Big Ben is offline
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    I am a tool, a learning tool.

    Sirilong...the government spent 70% of almost a trillion dollars do you think that has had any affect on your orders? Of course. What happens when that is gone? "Bad things man, bad things" As soon as the stimulus drys up were screwed. Obama is already back at congress asking for 200 billion more for state municipalities, this is not even a shocker and kind of gets glossed over but it is true. Government is trying to break the check book out again. I can't say I blame them, who wants teachers and policemen to lose their jobs? Not me.

    As for signs...no jobs in May, what? I thought the that was the number one priority of the current administration. They got goose egged ( In Pittsburgh they might call that a white wash) in may, lol. That means were down 125k, not good. I thought graduating college in summer of 2001 was a real shitty time to try and enter the work force. Thats just a joke now. This is the worst in decades.

    Check the housing numbers we are heading for double dip in housing. 46% of Alt-A mortgages are in default status, thats really bad. The housing crisis is probably in the 4th-5th inning, no joke, people are walking away left and right, telling the bank chase me down for the difference on the short sale, I'll see you in court if you can catch me, later. We have neighborhoods that would sell you land for 120k-150k an acre, you build a 250k-350k house and it would appraise at 600K. Now directly across from Plantation Lakes, a new developer is clearing lots and selling them for around 59k, I think the plan has 4 houses built, no model homes, 600+ lots. Resort style pool going in, probably in 2020, lol. Every single person who bought in Plantation Lakes is screwed for years. Everyone is calling this area West Myrtle Beach, west of the waterway. Whats funny is when you told someone where you lived, Plantation Lakes had a mystique about it at first, not so much now. My first thought is you paid too much for your land and too much for your copper in everything in your house, you got hosed on your lumber price. You basically got worked. Good Luck selling.

    Forget all that nonsense and lets get down to business....FAZ is going to hit like clock work, I think, I hope, I will be at the clock towner waiting for lightning. This is my biggest holding and I have been watching this thing like a hawk for seven months. It will pop in the next 3-5-7 days. If you have some dry powder earing .025 interest you might take a position in this monster, I call it a monster because it can come and take your money. I must say I think the risk/reward is pretty favorable. Good Luck. FXP already hit today for a 1.50 or 3.5% so I am not as confident in that one to move but taking a position in that stock anywhere under 40 is safe, or you could say better than .025%. DYODD

    DDD

  8. #18
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    I am a tool, a learning tool.

    Sirilong...the government spent 70% of almost a trillion dollars do you think that has had any affect on your orders? Of course. What happens when that is gone? "Bad things man, bad things" As soon as the stimulus drys up were screwed. Obama is already back at congress asking for 200 billion more for state municipalities, this is not even a shocker and kind of gets glossed over but it is true. Government is trying to break the check book out again. I can't say I blame them, who wants teachers and policemen to lose their jobs? Not me.

    As for signs...no jobs in May, what? I thought the that was the number one priority of the current administration. They got goose egged ( In Pittsburgh they might call that a white wash) in may, lol. That means were down 125k, not good. I thought graduating college in summer of 2001 was a real shitty time to try and enter the work force. Thats just a joke now. This is the worst in decades.

    Check the housing numbers we are heading for double dip in housing. 46% of Alt-A mortgages are in default status, thats really bad. The housing crisis is probably in the 4th-5th inning, no joke, people are walking away left and right, telling the bank chase me down for the difference on the short sale, I'll see you in court if you can catch me, later. We have neighborhoods that would sell you land for 120k-150k an acre, you build a 250k-350k house and it would appraise at 600K. Now directly across from Plantation Lakes, a new developer is clearing lots and selling them for around 59k, I think the plan has 4 houses built, no model homes, 600+ lots. Resort style pool going in, probably in 2020, lol. Every single person who bought in Plantation Lakes is screwed for years. Everyone is calling this area West Myrtle Beach, west of the waterway. Whats funny is when you told someone where you lived, Plantation Lakes had a mystique about it at first, not so much now. My first thought is you paid too much for your land and too much for your copper in everything in your house, you got hosed on your lumber price. You basically got worked. Good Luck selling.

    Forget all that nonsense and lets get down to business....FAZ is going to hit like clock work, I think, I hope, I will be at the clock towner waiting for lightning. This is my biggest holding and I have been watching this thing like a hawk for seven months. It will pop in the next 3-5-7 days. If you have some dry powder earing .025 interest you might take a position in this monster, I call it a monster because it can come and take your money. I must say I think the risk/reward is pretty favorable. Good Luck. FXP already hit today for a 1.50 or 3.5% so I am not as confident in that one to move but taking a position in that stock anywhere under 40 is safe, or you could say better than .025%. DYODD

    DDD
    Big Ben - the government stimulus has nothing to do with my business; that is unless consumers are buying more pool and spa parts due to the stimulus. I've argued this point with Havakasha. Not me or any company I call on can say that the stimulus has been good for their business. Might be good for cement companies and road pavers, but not for folks who make stuff. BTW, this stimulus $hit is just that.

    Yes, there was no job growth in May which is a point I highlighted in my ongoing discussion with Havakasha. What I can tell you is that we are hiring, and I am not in a new high growth business -- we make f'ing plastic for injection molded components. Plastics is a business big dogs like GE and
    DuPont are getting out of. In MBA speak, it's a dog (low growth, low margin).

    I agree, housing remains a concern. I think we need to face the grim reality that there is a housing glut, and it will take a long time to work itself out.

    I said several weeks ago that the market is going to trade sideways for a while, and I'm sticking to that. Unless there is more "fearful" news, it will trade sideways. 2Q conference calls will start in 3 weeks; earnings will be good and will boost the market. Watch..... and learn.

    I'm still holding my short positions even though they are bloody red. At this point, my expecation is to break even on this dead money.

  9. #19
    Big Ben is offline
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    Most novice investors do make that mistake...selling once they get back to even. Even saying that I feel like a sucker. If your short positions get back to even and you recoup your "dead money", wouldn't they have to be on an up swing to get back to even? Rookie mistake my friend. If you don't believe they will get back to even hence "dead money" you need to cash now. If your shorts come around then why would you sell if they recover whatever percentage your down? See you can't have it both ways. Your basically boxed in. If the markets continue to drop, which they will, you are going to sell your winner once its back to even. Once that happens you will take the cash and "dollar cost average" into some shitty long position and watch your one bad decision roll into two bad decisions. The reason I know this is I have made those mistakes...back in 2001 and 2003. Good luck..god knows your going to need it with a buy high sell low strategy. "Once I get back to even, I will never take a short position ever again" I call that the loser mantra. Buy and hold is now buy and rot. The last decade of investing has screwed the models up bad, going forward that is.


    PS. In the latest issue of Money magazine their is an article that is pumping buy and hold and saying what I do, trading, never works out because of taxes and transaction fees.....what a bunch of shit! Do I even have to get into that discussion about the pie and the new money and what transaction cost were in the 80's? I hope not, I trust yall see the wholes in those arguments......taxes are only paid on new money..who cares what the tax man taketh, its new money...as for transaction....9.99 a trade? Come on! On some of my FAZ trades I make the 9.99 up in seconds not minutes.

    Sincerely,
    Dennis Dixon

  10. #20
    Shane is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2010 Posts: 7

    is everyone drunk? whats going on here were doomed!

    havent been on here for a while. ive been reading some your your posts and it looks like some of you are thinking like me. the signs are pointing to nothing but gloom copper down, gold very up, oil siezuring, debt spiraling out of controll. yet the markets were freakishly up this week i was very confident that i could buy vxx monday and swim in a pool of cash friday but instead im in the a corner licking my wounds. im still holding on to a few bear etfs such as oil and the tsx 60. ive even bought gold today (god help me) because it seems to be the ownly thing moving. I still think that oil is over bought along with everythingn else but i dont think i can hold on much longer unless the market falls quick i hope you guys are doing better than i am.

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