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Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread May 31-June 14 2010

  1. #1
    SiriMonkey is offline

    Sirius Weekly Thread May 31-June 14 2010

    Hello Everyone,

    Well here we are entering a new month. Continuing the 2 week
    thread again.

    I never read anything about the stockholders meeting held
    on Thursday. Anybody hear what went on there?

    I will be at the shore for 11 days. Please
    keep an eye on my stock while I'm gone.

    Take care,

    Julie

  2. #2
    Boomer is offline
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    I did not attend Siriusí annual shareholders meeting; however, the following are points from a poster on another site that and he/she was quite impressed with what was learned:

    "1. I was ecstatic by Mr. Karmazinís announcement that the company will generate enough cash flow over the next several years to pay off approximately 1.5 billion in debt coming due.

    2. I was a bit disappointed by Mr. Karmazinís indifference to the idea of global expansion. I understand that the company is focused on US growth and improving financials, but the significance of the global market for satellite radio warrants more attention, even at this point.

    3. It appears the Company is already planning price increases for next year. I got the sense that Mr. Karmazin feels the company has great pricing power. I agree.

    4. Mr. Karmazin spoke enthusiastically about future growth in advertising revenue. He said the current quarter is showing a sizeable jump from the first quarter. I absolutely trust Mr. Karmazinís knowledge and expertise in this area.

    5. Expect more sizeable synergies from content renegotiations and technology migration.

    6. Forget about a reverse split. Company will avoid at all cost. Mr. Karmazin expects to reduce debt and buy back shares with cash making the reverse split unnecessary.

    7. Mr. Karmazin appears cautiously optimistic about signing Howard, although it doesnít appear a decision will come anytime soon. Mr. Karmazin gave the impression he wonít bow down to Howard and stressed that they absolutely have a plan B if Howard doesnít sign. He wouldnít elaborate on that plan.

    8. There are no expected capital expenditures for satellites in the next six years. This will help greatly with cash flow. I may be going out on a limb here, but my feeling is that in 6 years web connectivity (including vehicles) will be so ubiquitous that distribution by satellite will be unnecessary. This will result in significant cost reductions.

    9. Mr. Karmazin appears to be primarily focused on growth of OEM and CPO markets. Retail is not a priority at this point.

    10. Mr. Karmazin spoke prominently about marketing deals with new partners.

    11. When asked about a buyout Mr. Karmazin stated that he will listen to all offers, but will only sell if the price is right. A firmís present value equals its discounted future expected cash flows. Based on Mr. Karmazinís optimistic view of the firmís future cash flow generating ability I expect him not to sell cheaply. I felt he was sincere in his comments about cashing in on shareholder value."

    The following is another comment by another poster:Another Comment:

    "I loved it when Mel spoke about shareholder value & how in a few years the balance sheet is going to be great as well as a big part of the debt will be paid down with cash on hand. he then said the company might do dividends or stock buybacks to enhance shareholder value. It was music to my hears. He spoke about lowering the share count with the buybacks. I'm holding everything I've got until then."


    FWIW DYODD

  3. #3
    Big Ben is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448
    Shorts in control today, across the globe.

    Short term swing..FAZ or FXP..I have been picking off shares since 11 smacks...I have been selling into the recent strength...as much as 10 percent in a day...its there to be taken...I added to my position on the 27th.

    Sold 300 FAZ @ 17.6701 5,290.95 5,290.95
    05/25/2010 09:46:07 Sold 30 FXP @ 48.1901 1,435.68 6,726.63
    05/27/2010 09:38:41 Bought 500 FAZ @ 15.38 -7,699.99 -973.36
    05/27/2010 09:40:47 Bought 30 FXP @ 43.57 -1,317.09 -2,290.45

    Good luck today,
    DD

  4. #4
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    Shorts in control today, across the globe.

    Short term swing..FAZ or FXP..I have been picking off shares since 11 smacks...I have been selling into the recent strength...as much as 10 percent in a day...its there to be taken...I added to my position on the 27th.

    Sold 300 FAZ @ 17.6701 5,290.95 5,290.95
    05/25/2010 09:46:07 Sold 30 FXP @ 48.1901 1,435.68 6,726.63
    05/27/2010 09:38:41 Bought 500 FAZ @ 15.38 -7,699.99 -973.36
    05/27/2010 09:40:47 Bought 30 FXP @ 43.57 -1,317.09 -2,290.45

    Good luck today,
    DD
    Shorts in control? The market is sideways and will stay that way for another 3 - 4 months.

    Boomer - Thanks for the post. I was looking around for a summary. I thought one of these web sites would have covered that event. Maybe they did, but I just missed it. Sounds very positive IMO.

  5. #5
    Big Ben is offline
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    Siriuslyconfused? Sideways for 3-4 months? Your nuts! May was the worst May in a few decades. There is absolutely no reason to be buying stocks that are inflated around 60 percent. The markets was up 70 percent from the March lows and we have pulled back around 10 percent, plenty of room to the downside. Today FAZ and FXP were ripe for the picking around 42 and 15 respectively. There is way too much headline risk in the market. Get to cash or short stocks that is the next move if you want to make money. As for SIRI, I am putting in a 1000 share buy around .86, I currently have 1000 shares picked off at 1.11...I hate to use the term dead money...but if the shoe fits!

    DD

  6. #6
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    Siriuslyconfused? Sideways for 3-4 months? Your nuts! May was the worst May in a few decades. There is absolutely no reason to be buying stocks that are inflated around 60 percent. The markets was up 70 percent from the March lows and we have pulled back around 10 percent, plenty of room to the downside. Today FAZ and FXP were ripe for the picking around 42 and 15 respectively. There is way too much headline risk in the market. Get to cash or short stocks that is the next move if you want to make money. As for SIRI, I am putting in a 1000 share buy around .86, I currently have 1000 shares picked off at 1.11...I hate to use the term dead money...but if the shoe fits!

    DD
    Dow up 225 pts today. Up one day, down the next. I hope you bought your FAZ and FXP at the end of the day lol.

    Yes, SIRI right now is dead money, and the technicals are bearish, but if Mel's comments regarding 2Q2010 performance at the shareholder mtg last week are good, there should be a nice run up for the 2Q CC. You know, 2Q has 4 weeks left. You short term guys should make some money. Just off the top of my head, I'm saying we see $1.50 at the end of July.

  7. #7
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
    I did not attend Sirius’ annual shareholders meeting; however, the following are points from a poster on another site that and he/she was quite impressed with what was learned:

    "1. I was ecstatic by Mr. Karmazin’s announcement that the company will generate enough cash flow over the next several years to pay off approximately 1.5 billion in debt coming due.

    2. I was a bit disappointed by Mr. Karmazin’s indifference to the idea of global expansion. I understand that the company is focused on US growth and improving financials, but the significance of the global market for satellite radio warrants more attention, even at this point.

    3. It appears the Company is already planning price increases for next year. I got the sense that Mr. Karmazin feels the company has great pricing power. I agree.

    4. Mr. Karmazin spoke enthusiastically about future growth in advertising revenue. He said the current quarter is showing a sizeable jump from the first quarter. I absolutely trust Mr. Karmazin’s knowledge and expertise in this area.

    5. Expect more sizeable synergies from content renegotiations and technology migration.

    6. Forget about a reverse split. Company will avoid at all cost. Mr. Karmazin expects to reduce debt and buy back shares with cash making the reverse split unnecessary.

    7. Mr. Karmazin appears cautiously optimistic about signing Howard, although it doesn’t appear a decision will come anytime soon. Mr. Karmazin gave the impression he won’t bow down to Howard and stressed that they absolutely have a plan B if Howard doesn’t sign. He wouldn’t elaborate on that plan.

    8. There are no expected capital expenditures for satellites in the next six years. This will help greatly with cash flow. I may be going out on a limb here, but my feeling is that in 6 years web connectivity (including vehicles) will be so ubiquitous that distribution by satellite will be unnecessary. This will result in significant cost reductions.

    9. Mr. Karmazin appears to be primarily focused on growth of OEM and CPO markets. Retail is not a priority at this point.

    10. Mr. Karmazin spoke prominently about marketing deals with new partners.

    11. When asked about a buyout Mr. Karmazin stated that he will listen to all offers, but will only sell if the price is right. A firm’s present value equals its discounted future expected cash flows. Based on Mr. Karmazin’s optimistic view of the firm’s future cash flow generating ability I expect him not to sell cheaply. I felt he was sincere in his comments about cashing in on shareholder value."

    The following is another comment by another poster:Another Comment:

    "I loved it when Mel spoke about shareholder value & how in a few years the balance sheet is going to be great as well as a big part of the debt will be paid down with cash on hand. he then said the company might do dividends or stock buybacks to enhance shareholder value. It was music to my hears. He spoke about lowering the share count with the buybacks. I'm holding everything I've got until then."


    FWIW DYODD

    Just a few comments here on this.

    First, on comment #1. The problem I have here is, what is it that this guy thinks is ment by "SEVERAL YEARS"??? that could mean anything from 3 to 7 or more.

    Second, on comment #2. I have always said myself they have enough going on now here and in Canada for them to be dealing with, without Europe (which will lose money to begin with (money they dont have, BTW)). I was never one to have believed that World Space was going to yield anything for a long long long time for it to do anything for SIRIXM.

    Third on comment #3. I hope Mel is correct, although I think they have already done enough in price increases for the time being. While the churn shows they have some room to raise the price of a subscribption, I would give it a little more time from the last increase, like maybe another year at least. They dont want to be at a place where they cross a line with many and start to lose way more then they had figured.

    Forth on comment #4. We can expect that to come with increases over the next few years also. lets not forget that while advertising took a huge hit and is now seen a big come back for everyone (they all have said they are seeing increases). But lets remember the magic number of 20 million subscribers that would be used as a trigger point for a increase in advertising rates.

    Fifth on comment #7. It is nice to see Mel has not changed and will not put, just getting rid of Howerd, off the table.

    Sixth on comment #8. That is where they are going to get alot of the extra cash to pay off debt, lets not forget each satellite cost almost a BILLION dollars. Also it is not because the internet, that they are not going to spend on satellites it is because they will be finished with replacement of the old ones at that time. The internet is also expensive, lets not forget that the royalties are much more for internet then they are for satellite. remember that is why Pandora is having trouble making it.

    Seventh on comment #9. That figures considering that if you have one in your car already there is no need to go out and buy one to put in your car that already has one.

    Finally on comment #11. The only problem with that is it is good for those that bought at less then 1 dollar OR the ones that averaged down. The thing is I still somehow doubt that 3 dollars a share is going to make alot of people happy and lets not forget about why many of us got into this pig in the first place and that was because we knew if given a chance this pig would have been a cash cow in the future and delivered a MUCH MUCH MUCH HIGHER PPS then just 3 dollars.
    Last edited by john; 06-02-2010 at 05:58 PM.

  8. #8
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Dow up 225 pts today. Up one day, down the next. I hope you bought your FAZ and FXP at the end of the day lol.

    Yes, SIRI right now is dead money, and the technicals are bearish, but if Mel's comments regarding 2Q2010 performance at the shareholder mtg last week are good, there should be a nice run up for the 2Q CC. You know, 2Q has 4 weeks left. You short term guys should make some money. Just off the top of my head, I'm saying we see $1.50 at the end of July.

    To be honest considering the OEM numbers that have come out I am surprised that the PPS did not jump up. Now while the increase in subs will hit other metrics It is good to see such sub gains again. It also will help if there is another down turn because the more they grow now the more they will have in revenue if OEMs fall off next year. While I know it is not a popular thought I liked the fact that OEMs tanked last year. As evidence of that they were able to show a improving cash position. That would have never happened if the OEMs would have stayed as high. This slow down in OEMs, while it has hit their sub numbers has also let them catch up in cash, basically letting the current self paying subs pay for new ones coming on line.

  9. #9
    Boomer is offline
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    SXM may very well benefit from latest move by AT & T; esp., if other carriers follow suit...in particular, note bolded paragraph:



    Apple Says: "Thanks for Nothing, AT&T!"

    Proving that its spine is as thin as its coverage map, AT&T (NYSE: T) will no longer sell unlimited data plans to new smartphone customers starting next week.

    We may have seen this coming, given the carrier's notoriously strained wireless network. However, AT&T has the audacity to try to sugarcoat the bad news as a benefit for consumers.

    This is the announcement's headline -- and I swear that I'm not making this up:

    AT&T Announces New Lower-Priced Wireless Data Plans To Make Mobile Internet More Affordable To More People

    Let's assess this from the perspective of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone owners. As of right now, 2G users pay $20 a month to AT&T for unlimited data. Owners of faster 3G and 3GS handsets pay $30 a month for the online usage smorgasbord.

    Come June 7 -- the day that most expect will coincide with the debut of Apple's newest iPhone -- the only two plans available will be a $15 DataPlus plan (with a measly 200-megabyte monthly limit) and a $25 DataPro offering (with a better, yet still restrictive, 2-gigabyte cap).

    There's a slap for that
    AT&T claims that 98% of its smartphone customers go through less than 2 gigs a month on average, but that metric smells fishy to me. It's lumping email-centric Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) devices and cheaper smartphones into the mix. I can guarantee you that more than 2% of AT&T's iPhone users are eating through more than two gigabytes of data month.

    AT&T's announcement is also unintentionally funny. "Customers can also use unlimited Wi-Fi at home, in the office or elsewhere if available," it reads at one point. Really, AT&T? You're going to let me use my non-AT&T broadband provider's bandwidth without charging me? That's so sweet -- of me.

    It's also introducing tethering -- the ability to use your smartphone as a modem to power connectivity for a secondary computing device -- for an additional $20 a month. Uh, what's the point in paying for tethering on a metered plan? If you're going to cap usage, tethering should be absolutely free. Tethering without an unlimited data plan is like taking a yacht out on a puddle, performing a hair transplant on a cadaver, or taking a Lamborghini on a test drive through a school speed zone.

    The news gets worse for iPad owners who forked over an extra $130 for a 3G model. Come next week, the $29.99 unlimited 3G data plan will no longer be sold to new buyers. Those who haven't activated the $29.99 plan before Monday will have to settle for the $25 DataPro plan.

    AT&T just sold you out, Apple. The iPad is made for heavy data usage. The two most popular non-Apple downloads at launch were video-streaming apps for Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC. Who will want to pay a premium for the 3G model that comes with a cab meter?

    Opportunity knocks
    There can't be losers without winners. AT&T's decision to shutter its unlimited buffet will be a dinner bell for other companies.

    Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and smaller rival carriers? We have conflicting reports on the length of AT&T's iPhone exclusivity, but you just found a way to swipe gobs of AT&T's iPhone base, if you can step in with fair pricing and a handset that is compatible on your network .

    Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI)? Go ahead and silence the cynics who feel that Pandora and other web-based radio options will kill satellite radio in cars. Consumers will be less likely to plug their smartphones into their in-dash entertainment systems -- instead of subscribing to Sirius or XM -- if they know that every song or sound bite comes at a price.

    In short, AT&T is killing the smartphone revolution before it really had a chance to get started, by tripping up its star player.

    If you can hear me out there, Apple: Run!

  10. #10
    Boomer is offline
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    Looks like Mel will be on Fast Money Halftime report @ 12:30 next Thursday 6/10 the day before the Russell inclusion list is released. Always expect something new to be announced on these events, so not getting my hopes up...but, would really be nice with the Russell on Friday...

    In any event, it will b e fun to watch the CNBC folks squirm as Mel tells them how well the company is doing and the improving prospects...

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/37491732/

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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