Results 1 to 10 of 33

Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread May 31-June 14 2010

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    SiriMonkey is offline

    Sirius Weekly Thread May 31-June 14 2010

    Hello Everyone,

    Well here we are entering a new month. Continuing the 2 week
    thread again.

    I never read anything about the stockholders meeting held
    on Thursday. Anybody hear what went on there?

    I will be at the shore for 11 days. Please
    keep an eye on my stock while I'm gone.

    Take care,

    Julie

  2. #2
    Boomer is offline
    Member
    Boomer's Avatar
    Joined: Oct 2009 Location: PA Posts: 63
    I did not attend Siriusí annual shareholders meeting; however, the following are points from a poster on another site that and he/she was quite impressed with what was learned:

    "1. I was ecstatic by Mr. Karmazinís announcement that the company will generate enough cash flow over the next several years to pay off approximately 1.5 billion in debt coming due.

    2. I was a bit disappointed by Mr. Karmazinís indifference to the idea of global expansion. I understand that the company is focused on US growth and improving financials, but the significance of the global market for satellite radio warrants more attention, even at this point.

    3. It appears the Company is already planning price increases for next year. I got the sense that Mr. Karmazin feels the company has great pricing power. I agree.

    4. Mr. Karmazin spoke enthusiastically about future growth in advertising revenue. He said the current quarter is showing a sizeable jump from the first quarter. I absolutely trust Mr. Karmazinís knowledge and expertise in this area.

    5. Expect more sizeable synergies from content renegotiations and technology migration.

    6. Forget about a reverse split. Company will avoid at all cost. Mr. Karmazin expects to reduce debt and buy back shares with cash making the reverse split unnecessary.

    7. Mr. Karmazin appears cautiously optimistic about signing Howard, although it doesnít appear a decision will come anytime soon. Mr. Karmazin gave the impression he wonít bow down to Howard and stressed that they absolutely have a plan B if Howard doesnít sign. He wouldnít elaborate on that plan.

    8. There are no expected capital expenditures for satellites in the next six years. This will help greatly with cash flow. I may be going out on a limb here, but my feeling is that in 6 years web connectivity (including vehicles) will be so ubiquitous that distribution by satellite will be unnecessary. This will result in significant cost reductions.

    9. Mr. Karmazin appears to be primarily focused on growth of OEM and CPO markets. Retail is not a priority at this point.

    10. Mr. Karmazin spoke prominently about marketing deals with new partners.

    11. When asked about a buyout Mr. Karmazin stated that he will listen to all offers, but will only sell if the price is right. A firmís present value equals its discounted future expected cash flows. Based on Mr. Karmazinís optimistic view of the firmís future cash flow generating ability I expect him not to sell cheaply. I felt he was sincere in his comments about cashing in on shareholder value."

    The following is another comment by another poster:Another Comment:

    "I loved it when Mel spoke about shareholder value & how in a few years the balance sheet is going to be great as well as a big part of the debt will be paid down with cash on hand. he then said the company might do dividends or stock buybacks to enhance shareholder value. It was music to my hears. He spoke about lowering the share count with the buybacks. I'm holding everything I've got until then."


    FWIW DYODD

  3. #3
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
    I did not attend Sirius’ annual shareholders meeting; however, the following are points from a poster on another site that and he/she was quite impressed with what was learned:

    "1. I was ecstatic by Mr. Karmazin’s announcement that the company will generate enough cash flow over the next several years to pay off approximately 1.5 billion in debt coming due.

    2. I was a bit disappointed by Mr. Karmazin’s indifference to the idea of global expansion. I understand that the company is focused on US growth and improving financials, but the significance of the global market for satellite radio warrants more attention, even at this point.

    3. It appears the Company is already planning price increases for next year. I got the sense that Mr. Karmazin feels the company has great pricing power. I agree.

    4. Mr. Karmazin spoke enthusiastically about future growth in advertising revenue. He said the current quarter is showing a sizeable jump from the first quarter. I absolutely trust Mr. Karmazin’s knowledge and expertise in this area.

    5. Expect more sizeable synergies from content renegotiations and technology migration.

    6. Forget about a reverse split. Company will avoid at all cost. Mr. Karmazin expects to reduce debt and buy back shares with cash making the reverse split unnecessary.

    7. Mr. Karmazin appears cautiously optimistic about signing Howard, although it doesn’t appear a decision will come anytime soon. Mr. Karmazin gave the impression he won’t bow down to Howard and stressed that they absolutely have a plan B if Howard doesn’t sign. He wouldn’t elaborate on that plan.

    8. There are no expected capital expenditures for satellites in the next six years. This will help greatly with cash flow. I may be going out on a limb here, but my feeling is that in 6 years web connectivity (including vehicles) will be so ubiquitous that distribution by satellite will be unnecessary. This will result in significant cost reductions.

    9. Mr. Karmazin appears to be primarily focused on growth of OEM and CPO markets. Retail is not a priority at this point.

    10. Mr. Karmazin spoke prominently about marketing deals with new partners.

    11. When asked about a buyout Mr. Karmazin stated that he will listen to all offers, but will only sell if the price is right. A firm’s present value equals its discounted future expected cash flows. Based on Mr. Karmazin’s optimistic view of the firm’s future cash flow generating ability I expect him not to sell cheaply. I felt he was sincere in his comments about cashing in on shareholder value."

    The following is another comment by another poster:Another Comment:

    "I loved it when Mel spoke about shareholder value & how in a few years the balance sheet is going to be great as well as a big part of the debt will be paid down with cash on hand. he then said the company might do dividends or stock buybacks to enhance shareholder value. It was music to my hears. He spoke about lowering the share count with the buybacks. I'm holding everything I've got until then."


    FWIW DYODD

    Just a few comments here on this.

    First, on comment #1. The problem I have here is, what is it that this guy thinks is ment by "SEVERAL YEARS"??? that could mean anything from 3 to 7 or more.

    Second, on comment #2. I have always said myself they have enough going on now here and in Canada for them to be dealing with, without Europe (which will lose money to begin with (money they dont have, BTW)). I was never one to have believed that World Space was going to yield anything for a long long long time for it to do anything for SIRIXM.

    Third on comment #3. I hope Mel is correct, although I think they have already done enough in price increases for the time being. While the churn shows they have some room to raise the price of a subscribption, I would give it a little more time from the last increase, like maybe another year at least. They dont want to be at a place where they cross a line with many and start to lose way more then they had figured.

    Forth on comment #4. We can expect that to come with increases over the next few years also. lets not forget that while advertising took a huge hit and is now seen a big come back for everyone (they all have said they are seeing increases). But lets remember the magic number of 20 million subscribers that would be used as a trigger point for a increase in advertising rates.

    Fifth on comment #7. It is nice to see Mel has not changed and will not put, just getting rid of Howerd, off the table.

    Sixth on comment #8. That is where they are going to get alot of the extra cash to pay off debt, lets not forget each satellite cost almost a BILLION dollars. Also it is not because the internet, that they are not going to spend on satellites it is because they will be finished with replacement of the old ones at that time. The internet is also expensive, lets not forget that the royalties are much more for internet then they are for satellite. remember that is why Pandora is having trouble making it.

    Seventh on comment #9. That figures considering that if you have one in your car already there is no need to go out and buy one to put in your car that already has one.

    Finally on comment #11. The only problem with that is it is good for those that bought at less then 1 dollar OR the ones that averaged down. The thing is I still somehow doubt that 3 dollars a share is going to make alot of people happy and lets not forget about why many of us got into this pig in the first place and that was because we knew if given a chance this pig would have been a cash cow in the future and delivered a MUCH MUCH MUCH HIGHER PPS then just 3 dollars.
    Last edited by john; 06-02-2010 at 05:58 PM.

  4. #4
    Big Ben is offline
    Senior Member
    Big Ben's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448
    Shorts in control today, across the globe.

    Short term swing..FAZ or FXP..I have been picking off shares since 11 smacks...I have been selling into the recent strength...as much as 10 percent in a day...its there to be taken...I added to my position on the 27th.

    Sold 300 FAZ @ 17.6701 5,290.95 5,290.95
    05/25/2010 09:46:07 Sold 30 FXP @ 48.1901 1,435.68 6,726.63
    05/27/2010 09:38:41 Bought 500 FAZ @ 15.38 -7,699.99 -973.36
    05/27/2010 09:40:47 Bought 30 FXP @ 43.57 -1,317.09 -2,290.45

    Good luck today,
    DD

  5. #5
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    Shorts in control today, across the globe.

    Short term swing..FAZ or FXP..I have been picking off shares since 11 smacks...I have been selling into the recent strength...as much as 10 percent in a day...its there to be taken...I added to my position on the 27th.

    Sold 300 FAZ @ 17.6701 5,290.95 5,290.95
    05/25/2010 09:46:07 Sold 30 FXP @ 48.1901 1,435.68 6,726.63
    05/27/2010 09:38:41 Bought 500 FAZ @ 15.38 -7,699.99 -973.36
    05/27/2010 09:40:47 Bought 30 FXP @ 43.57 -1,317.09 -2,290.45

    Good luck today,
    DD
    Shorts in control? The market is sideways and will stay that way for another 3 - 4 months.

    Boomer - Thanks for the post. I was looking around for a summary. I thought one of these web sites would have covered that event. Maybe they did, but I just missed it. Sounds very positive IMO.

  6. #6
    Big Ben is offline
    Senior Member
    Big Ben's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448
    Siriuslyconfused? Sideways for 3-4 months? Your nuts! May was the worst May in a few decades. There is absolutely no reason to be buying stocks that are inflated around 60 percent. The markets was up 70 percent from the March lows and we have pulled back around 10 percent, plenty of room to the downside. Today FAZ and FXP were ripe for the picking around 42 and 15 respectively. There is way too much headline risk in the market. Get to cash or short stocks that is the next move if you want to make money. As for SIRI, I am putting in a 1000 share buy around .86, I currently have 1000 shares picked off at 1.11...I hate to use the term dead money...but if the shoe fits!

    DD

  7. #7
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    Siriuslyconfused? Sideways for 3-4 months? Your nuts! May was the worst May in a few decades. There is absolutely no reason to be buying stocks that are inflated around 60 percent. The markets was up 70 percent from the March lows and we have pulled back around 10 percent, plenty of room to the downside. Today FAZ and FXP were ripe for the picking around 42 and 15 respectively. There is way too much headline risk in the market. Get to cash or short stocks that is the next move if you want to make money. As for SIRI, I am putting in a 1000 share buy around .86, I currently have 1000 shares picked off at 1.11...I hate to use the term dead money...but if the shoe fits!

    DD
    Dow up 225 pts today. Up one day, down the next. I hope you bought your FAZ and FXP at the end of the day lol.

    Yes, SIRI right now is dead money, and the technicals are bearish, but if Mel's comments regarding 2Q2010 performance at the shareholder mtg last week are good, there should be a nice run up for the 2Q CC. You know, 2Q has 4 weeks left. You short term guys should make some money. Just off the top of my head, I'm saying we see $1.50 at the end of July.

  8. Ad Fairy Senior Member

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •