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Sirius Roadkill
Sirius XM Stock: Survey Says 'Buy Buy Buy'
By Andrea Tse 05/15/10 - 08:00 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- This week we asked TheStreet readers whether they had a buy, sell or hold view on Sirius XM (SIRI) stock, in light of the mixed analysts reports that came out after the company's first-quarter earnings call.
Which analyst view of Sirius XM do you agree with the most?," we asked. Out of more than 2,500 votes, 76.8% went for the buy rating, 18.3% went for the hold rating and a mere 4.8% went to the sell rating.
In light of this, we went back to some of the analysts who cover Sirius XM for their reactions on the results.
"That's an interesting outcome, but not altogether surprising," John Hain of Barrington Research said of the poll results. "Sirius XM has a bit of a reputation as being a 'retail darling.' That is to say, retail investors love it."
Still, Hain thinks that at this point in time, it's important for the company to win back favor from institutional investors, many of whom started distancing themselves from Sirius XM stock when its shares slid in 2008 and 2009.
Hain thinks that institutional investors should give the stock another chance.
"Since then, the company has reoriented itself as a growth story," Hain said, citing the increasing growth of subscribers and rising revenues and cash flow, all which have led to an improving balance sheet.
"Importantly, the recent, upsized debt offering implies that the company can once again access the debt market in a timely fashion and, perhaps more importantly, at favorable rates. This should lower its cost of debt capital going forward and, all other things being equal, improve returns to shareholders."
One of the more bearish of Sirius XM analysts is Marek Fuchs, author of A Cold-Blooded Business and a contributor to TheStreet. Fuchs cautions that when the public is overwhelmingly positive about a stock, there's only one way for the sentiment to go: "down."
Fuchs also warns of investors becoming blinded to the company's problems once they become fans of Sirius XM -- and Sirius XM has clearly built itself quite a fan base -- like how signing radio personalities like Howard Stern for blockbuster contracts makes for good radio, but bad profits, "or how, right now, they are caught between a rock and a hard place. They need to re-sign Howard, whose contract is up, but can't afford it."
-- and this has been part of their problem and challenge from the day they signed Howard Stern -- has an emotional hold on a certain fan base. But guess what? Emotion and investing do not go hand in hand," Fuchs asserted.
Fuchs and BGB Securities analyst Murray Arenson's views appear like night and day. After listening in on Sirius XM's earnings call, Arenson, who has a buy recommendation for the stock, lifted his price target to $1.35 from $1.15.
"I like the stock and that strong public favorable sentiment from investors probably also reflects their outlook for auto sales trends," Arenson said. "My recommendation also incorporates a longer-term view, looking at an expanding market -- which includes pre-owned vehicles -- strong conversion rates, compelling content, and ongoing improvements to operational efficiencies."
-- Reported by Andrea Tse in New York