Page 5 of 22 FirstFirst ... 3456715 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 220

Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010

  1. #41
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Grading the Analysts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Several analysts provided upbeat pre-earnings comments today:

    Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan repeated his Hold rating, but lifted his target price to $1.25, from $1. He adds that a sustained recovery in U.S. auto sales to the 12 million unit annual rate would push his valuation estimate up to $1.50. He expects Q1 sales of $672.9 million with EBITDA of $138.2 million and “essentially break-even” EPS. He estimates ARPU at $11.06, and subscriber acquisition costs of $64.36.

    Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the shares; he also see a break-even quarter, with revenue of $682.2 million Goss writes that one potential catalyst for the stock could be inclusion in in stock indexes that had removed the shares as the stock price tumbled. Goss keeps his $1.25 target.

    Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett repeated his Buy rating and $1.35 target. He sees revenue of $666 million, adjusted EBIRDA of $137 million and a profit of a penny a share. Crockett thinks the company will raise its full-year 2010 EBITDA guidance from the current $550 million to $600 million or higher.

    Satellite Standard Group analyst Spencer Osborne, in his usual wait-and-see style, does not offer a price target but sees revenue of $704-$712 million, adjusted income from operations of $120-$135 million and EPS of breakeven to a 1 penny profit. Osborne, perhaps the only analyst who actually understands the fundamental metrics of the company, estimates ARPU of $11 and subscriber acquisition costs of $70.

    I spoke earlier with with an exhausted Osborne, who will be anchoring live coverage of the conference call tomorrow morning beginning at 7:00 A.M. eastern on Sirius Buzz Radio, who said, "overall the call will carry a positive tone, and should be well received, in particular if they are able to report a positive EPS. The focus will be on guidance, growth, and better economic conditions."
    For the first quarter of 2010, SIRIUS XM recognized total revenue of $670.6 million compared to $605.5 million for the first quarter 2009. This one goes to Matthew Hooligan who called revenue at $672.9 million.

    Total ARPU for the three months ended March 31, 2010 was $11.48, compared to $10.48 for the three months ended March 31, 2009. Have to give this one to Osborne who projected $11.

    In the first quarter of 2010, the company grew pro forma adjusted income from operations to $157.8 million compared to pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million for the first quarter of 2009. Hooligan.

    Net Income Per Common Share of $0.01 Versus ($0.07) a Year Ago. Gotta give this one to Barton Crooked who nailed it right on the head (of course he did spend a week up David Frear's butt)
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 05-04-2010 at 10:21 AM.

  2. #42
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Yeah, it's getting a little weird. All I can say is that it all started here. One day someone needs to chronicle the story of Sirius Buzz, SW and KOAT.

    Though it was interesting to see BM "turn" the guy from MF.

    I have always thought Rick M. was usually fare. He had some articles that missed somethings but for the most part I think he has been a pumper.

  3. #43
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    For the first quarter of 2010, SIRIUS XM recognized total revenue of $670.6 million compared to $605.5 million for the first quarter 2009. This one goes to Matthew Hooligan who called revenue at $672.9 million.

    Total ARPU for the three months ended March 31, 2010 was $11.48, compared to $10.48 for the three months ended March 31, 2009. Have to give this one to Osborne who projected $11.

    In the first quarter of 2010, the company grew pro forma adjusted income from operations to $157.8 million compared to pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million for the first quarter of 2009. Hooligan.

    Hey dont I get any credit I said about 100,000 new subs in April and Mel said, "as of last week we had over the number of subscribers we had EVER." that means they added at least 70,000 as of last week.
    Last edited by john; 05-04-2010 at 10:25 AM.

  4. #44
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Hey dont I get any credit I said about 100,000 new subs in April and Mel said, "as of last week we had over the number of subscribers we had EVER." that means they added at least 70,000 as of last week.
    that was a good call . . but not yet official . . . now wait til you see my next post!

  5. #45
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Mel at his Best!

    2010 OUTLOOK

    SIRIUS XM continues to project net subscriber additions of over 500,000 for the full year. The company continues to expect to record over $2.7 billion of pro forma revenue in 2010 and to achieve pro forma adjusted income from operations of approximately $550 million. Free cash flow is expected to remain positive for the full year.

    You want increased guidance? . . . here's your guidance!

    There were some here at SB who thought Mel would increase guidance based on net ads in Q1 . . . some that thought he must increase guidance based on Q1 . . . some who wanted him to increase guidance based on Q1 . . . some who said SP from here on would depend on guidance and then . . . . . there was just one lone voice who said F the analysts, no new guidance.

    Thank you Mel . . . well-played. F the analysts!

    Now I will grant you, he did tweak the language a bit by adding "over" here and there . . . but with no new specificity as many had hoped for or wanted.
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 05-04-2010 at 11:12 AM.

  6. #46
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Subscriber acquisition costs increased 28%, or $23.3 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009. SAC, as adjusted, per gross
    subscriber addition (4)(7) $59


    Bad miss by Osborne who projected SAC increase to $70

    (4) SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition is derived from subscriber acquisition costs and margins from the direct sale of radios and accessories, divided by the number of gross subscriber additions for the period. See footnote 9 for a reconciliation of the pro forma amounts to their respective GAAP amounts. SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition is calculated as follows (in thousands, except for subscriber and per subscriber amounts):

    Unaudited Pro Forma
    -------------------
    For the Three Months
    Ended
    March 31,
    ---------
    2010 2009
    ---- ----

    Subscriber acquisition costs $107,045 $83,710
    Less: margin from direct sales of
    radios and accessories (6,364) (1,916)
    SAC, as adjusted $100,681 $81,794
    ======== =======

    Gross subscriber additions 1,720,848 1,338,961
    SAC, as adjusted, per gross
    subscriber addition $59 $61
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 05-04-2010 at 11:02 AM.

  7. #47
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    coh

    ASSETS
    Current assets:
    Cash and cash equivalents $268,538mm

  8. #48
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    ad revenue

    Net advertising revenue 14,527 12,304

    small contributor yes but ad revenue up 18.07% is still a plus

  9. #49
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Fcf

    (6) Free cash flow is calculated as follows (in thousands):

    Unaudited Pro Forma
    -------------------
    For the Three Months
    Ended
    March 31,
    ---------
    2010 2009
    ---- ----

    Net cash (used in) provided by
    operating activities $(37,688) $66,871
    Additions to property and
    equipment (98,965) (71,140)
    Merger related costs - 623
    Restricted and other investment
    activity 9,450 -
    Free cash flow $(127,203) $(3,646)

  10. #50
    candleman is offline
    Mentor
    candleman's Avatar
    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina Posts: 1,511
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I have always thought Rick M. was usually fare. He had some articles that missed somethings but for the most part I think he has been a pumper.
    Rick has acted like a moron for the last 12 months. Nothing but negative. He missed all of his calls as far as I'm concerned. I am glad that he's had a change of heart. But, for any of us that have been long in SIRI for many years, he had been a real thorn in the side during 2009

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 5 of 22 FirstFirst ... 3456715 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •