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Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010

  1. #31
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Spence . . the one thing I haven't heard you address is "one-time-charges"

    I suppose we agree that there will be some "one-time-charges" related to the debt refinancing that took place during Q1 . . . the question is whether or not those charges will have an appreciable impact on EPS . . .

    I am looking for a contrarian angle here and wondersing if MSM & thestreet.CON will look to sandbag the call (the latter of course to seed a short position for Jimmy's buddies) with misleading headlines that play off any potential one-time-charges


    Well I am not Tyler or Spence (whoever that is) but I will take a stab at it. I dont think we see to much of a loss this time remembering that the last time it was something like .07 cent loss for one time charges. I believe it well be closer to a penny or at most 2 for one time charges..

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Motley Fool slipping under the covers with BM?

    talk about strange bed-fellows

    I think even stranger bed fellows are Newman and Charles. Excuse me now while I throw up XVXV&UV EFE EETE*^WRF*WEPTFSFSSJ EBVEV BHFDDFETF. Ok all this talk of guys being in bed together was making me sick (not that there is anything wrong with that (Sienfield show #231)).

  3. #33
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    From Mel's Lips . . . .

    . . . to God's ears:

    "Eventually there will be many more used cars with factory or dealer installed radios on the road than new cars so the universe of potential subscribers who can easily sample our service will continue to grow and we are devoting a great deal of energy to create and refine processes to take advantage of this future fact. We have recently announced the management team to focus on capitalizing from the very large, certified pre-owned and used car market."

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I think even stranger bed fellows are Newman and Charles. Excuse me now while I throw up XVXV&UV EFE EETE*^WRF*WEPTFSFSSJ EBVEV BHFDDFETF. Ok all this talk of guys being in bed together was making me sick (not that there is anything wrong with that (Sienfield show #231)).
    at 3 minutes, 25 seconds to be precise:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOjzu...next=1&index=3

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    . . . to God's ears:

    "Eventually there will be many more used cars with factory or dealer installed radios on the road than new cars so the universe of potential subscribers who can easily sample our service will continue to grow and we are devoting a great deal of energy to create and refine processes to take advantage of this future fact. We have recently announced the management team to focus on capitalizing from the very large, certified pre-owned and used car market."

    Hummm, I think I said something like that, Ho I dont know, I think about 3 YEARS AGO.

  6. #36
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    http://m.paidcontent.org/article/419...sts-estimates/

    Typical. Down 7 cents in premarket. It's like SIRI can't win lol.

  7. #37
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    - Pro Forma Revenue of $670.6 Million, Up 11% Year Over Year - Record Pro Forma Adjusted Income From Operations, up 45% Year Over Year to $157.8 Million - Net Income Per Common Share of $0.01 Versus ($0.07) a Year Ago

    NEW YORK, May 4, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX News Network/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced first quarter 2010 financial and operating results, including $670.6 million in pro forma revenue, up 11% over first quarter 2009 pro forma revenue of $605.5 million; and $157.8 million in first quarter 2010 pro forma adjusted income from operations, an increase of 45% over first quarter 2009 pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million.

    (Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/...19/NYTU044LOGO )

    "Continued positive subscriber growth, double-digit growth in revenue, and a sharp focus on costs resulted in the highest quarterly adjusted operating income in the company's history," said Mel Karmazin, Chief Executive Officer, SIRIUS XM Radio. "As the leader in audio entertainment, these results show the tremendous appeal of our service and the strength of our business model. The continuing recovery of the automotive sector and expanding signs of increased consumer spending are encouraging signs for the company's growth prospects."

    SIRIUS XM ended first quarter 2010 with 18,944,199 subscribers, up 344,765 from 18,599,434 subscribers at the end of first quarter 2009. Net subscriber additions of 171,441 in the first quarter of 2010 improved significantly from a loss of 404,422 subscribers in the first quarter of 2009. In the first quarter 2010, pro forma average revenue per subscriber (ARPU), which includes the U.S. Music Royalty Fee, was $11.48, an increase of 10% from pro forma ARPU of $10.48 in the first quarter 2009. The company's self-pay monthly customer churn rate was 2.0% in the first quarter 2010, as compared with self-pay monthly customer churn of 2.2% in the first quarter 2009.

    Free cash flow in the first quarter 2010 was ($127.2) million compared to ($3.6) million in the first quarter of 2009. Net Income plus non cash operating activities increased by $43.7 million, or 89%, to $93 million in the first quarter of 2010 from $49.3 million in the first quarter of 2009. This increase was offset by changes in operating assets and liabilities as a result of the early repayment of approximately $61 million deferred in 2009 that was scheduled to be repaid, at 15% interest, in monthly installments from April 2010 through March 2011, a lump sum programming payment in the first quarter of 2010 that was paid over the course of the year in 2009 and the payment of 2009 bonuses in cash as opposed to stock in the prior year resulting in an increase in net cash used in operating activities of $104.6 million. In addition, capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2010 increased by $28 million over the prior quarter period primarily due to increased satellite spending.

    The company previously announced it will redeem all of the remaining $114 million of XM's outstanding 10% Senior PIK Secured Notes due 2011 on Tuesday, June 1, 2010. "Our strong cash position, strong year-to-date subscriber growth and the improving outlook for the economy have put us in position to retire $175 million of high cost obligations a year ahead of schedule," said David Frear, SIRIUS XM's Chief Financial Officer. "The early retirement of the PIK Notes and the deferred payments will reduce interest expense and increase our free cash flow."

    On a GAAP basis, first quarter 2010 revenue was $663.8 million, and first quarter 2010 net income was $41.6 million, or $0.01 per share.

    2010 OUTLOOK

    SIRIUS XM continues to project net subscriber additions of over 500,000 for the full year. The company continues to expect to record over $2.7 billion of pro forma revenue in 2010 and to achieve pro forma adjusted income from operations of approximately $550 million. Free cash flow is expected to remain positive for the full year.

    PRO FORMA RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

    The discussion of operating results below is based upon pro forma comparisons as if the merger of SIRIUS and XM occurred on January 1, 2007 and excludes the effects of stock-based compensation and purchase accounting adjustments.

    FIRST QUARTER 2010 VERSUS FIRST QUARTER 2009

    For the first quarter of 2010, SIRIUS XM recognized total revenue of $670.6 million compared to $605.5 million for the first quarter 2009. This 11%, or $65.1 million, increase in revenue was driven by the U.S. Music Royalty Fee introduced in the third quarter of 2009, the sale of "Best of" programming, and rate increases to the company's multi-subscription and Internet packages.

    Total ARPU for the three months ended March 31, 2010 was $11.48, compared to $10.48 for the three months ended March 31, 2009. The increase was driven mainly by the addition of the U.S. Music Royalty Fee introduced in July 2009 and increased revenues from the "Best of" programming, multi-subscription rate increases, Internet streaming, and advertising.

    In the first quarter of 2010, the company grew pro forma adjusted income from operations to $157.8 million compared to pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million for the first quarter of 2009 (refer to the reconciliation table of net income (loss) to adjusted income from operations). The improvement was driven by an 11% increase in total revenue, or $65.1 million, partially offset by an increase of 3%, or $16.2 million, in total expenses included in adjusted income from operations.

    Revenue share and royalties increased 2%, or $2.3 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 primarily due to an increase in the company's revenues and an increase in the statutory royalty rate for the performance of sound recordings. The amounts were partially offset by a decrease in a royalty rate with an automaker.

    Programming and content costs decreased 6%, or $6.2 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due mainly to savings on certain content agreements and production costs, partially offset by increases in personnel costs and general operating expenses.

    Customer service and billing costs decreased 7%, or $4.1 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 primarily due to lower call center expenses as a result of savings realized from relocating certain operations.

    Satellite and transmission costs decreased 2%, or $0.4 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due to reductions in personnel costs and repeater maintenance costs, partially offset by increased satellite insurance expense.

    Cost of equipment decreased 1%, or $0.1 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 as a result of lower inventory write-downs, partially offset by increased component sales to manufacturers and distributors.

    Subscriber acquisition costs increased 28%, or $23.3 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009. The increase was driven by the 29% increase in gross additions and higher OEM installations, partially offset by lower per unit OEM subsidies, improved chip set costs and lower aftermarket acquisition costs.

    Sales and marketing costs decreased 1%, or $0.7 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due to lower cooperative marketing, event marketing and third party distribution support expenses, partially offset by increased personnel costs and consumer advertising.

    Engineering, design and development costs increased 17%, or $1.4 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 mainly due to higher personnel costs.

    General and administrative costs increased 1%, or $0.5 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 mainly due to higher personnel costs, partially offset by lower legal, consulting and accounting expenses.

    Other expenses decreased 17%, or $16.9 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 driven mainly by a decrease in loss on extinguishment of debt and credit facilities, net, of $15.4 million.

    The following tables contain unaudited actual and pro forma subscriber and key operating metrics for the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively.

  8. #38
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    Unaudited Actual
    ----------------
    For the Three Months
    Ended
    March 31,
    ---------
    2010 2009
    ---- ----

    Beginning subscribers 18,772,758 19,003,856
    Gross subscriber additions 1,720,848 1,338,961
    Deactivated subscribers (1,549,407) (1,743,383)
    Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
    ------- --------
    Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
    ========== ==========

    Retail 7,420,203 8,537,171
    OEM 11,391,439 9,958,234
    Rental 132,557 104,029
    ------- -------
    Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
    ========== ==========

    Retail (305,547) (368,031)
    OEM 460,487 (37,604)
    Rental 16,501 1,213
    ------ -----
    Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
    ======= ========

    Self-pay 15,773,671 15,436,410
    Paid promotional 3,170,528 3,163,024
    Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
    ========== ==========

    Self-pay 69,739 (113,247)
    Paid promotional 101,702 (291,175)
    Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
    ======= ========

    Daily weighted average number
    of subscribers 18,783,263 18,713,485
    ========== ==========



    Unaudited Pro Forma
    -------------------
    For the Three Months
    Ended
    March 31,
    ---------
    (in thousands, except for per
    subscriber amounts) 2010 2009
    ---- ----

    Average self-pay monthly churn
    (1)(7) 2.0% 2.2%
    Conversion rate (2)(7) 45.2% 44.6%
    ARPU (3)(7) $11.48 $10.48
    SAC, as adjusted, per gross
    subscriber addition (4)(7) $59 $61
    Customer service and billing
    expenses, as adjusted,
    per average subscriber (5)(7) $0.99 $1.06
    Total revenue $670,563 $605,480
    Free cash flow (6)(7) $(127,203) $(3,646)
    Adjusted income from operations
    (8) $157,757 $108,841
    Net income (loss) $4,454 $(65,114)


    SIRIUS XM RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS


    Unaudited Pro Forma
    -------------------
    For the Three Months
    Ended
    March 31,
    2010 2009
    ---- ----

    Revenue:
    Subscriber revenue, including
    effects of rebates $584,475 $576,078
    Advertising revenue, net of
    agency fees 14,527 12,304
    Equipment revenue 14,283 9,909
    Other revenue 57,278 7,189
    ------ -----
    Total revenue 670,563 605,480

    Operating expenses:
    Revenue share and royalties 123,539 121,261
    Programming and content 90,471 96,678
    Customer service and billing 55,577 59,669
    Satellite and transmission 19,389 19,741
    Cost of equipment 7,919 7,993
    Subscriber acquisition costs 107,045 83,710
    Sales and marketing 49,942 50,601
    Engineering, design and
    development 9,826 8,411
    General and administrative 49,098 48,575
    Depreciation and amortization 51,578 51,483
    Restructuring, impairments and
    related costs - 614
    Share-based payment expense 18,183 21,500
    Total operating expenses 582,567 570,236
    ------- -------
    Income from operations 87,996 35,244
    Other expense (82,375) (99,243)
    ------- -------
    Income (loss) before income taxes 5,621 (63,999)
    Income tax expense (1,167) (1,115)

    Net income (loss) $4,454 $(65,114)
    ====== ========

  9. #39
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I think even stranger bed fellows are Newman and Charles. Excuse me now while I throw up XVXV&UV EFE EETE*^WRF*WEPTFSFSSJ EBVEV BHFDDFETF. Ok all this talk of guys being in bed together was making me sick (not that there is anything wrong with that (Sienfield show #231)).
    Yeah, it's getting a little weird. All I can say is that it all started here. One day someone needs to chronicle the story of Sirius Buzz, SW and KOAT.

    Though it was interesting to see BM "turn" the guy from MF.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    http://m.paidcontent.org/article/419...sts-estimates/

    Typical. Down 7 cents in premarket. It's like SIRI can't win lol.
    Yes but that is normal just look at most companies that reported great results after they did the stocks fell only to come back the next few days later. I think the disappointment came in the area of revenue and negitive FCF (for those that dont understand how FCF works that is). I can understand the revenue part but people have to remember FCF is also not a great number to use with this company at this time (although it is still better then EBITDA). Look at what happen they paid their people in cash instead of shares, that killed FCF along with some other good things that happen, paying off debt is not bad nomatter where it comes from. So in the end I would hope most see this and are looking at revenue because that is the only downer here.

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