Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010

[john]

John....

Long agoi was as in almost a year.

John. They added the fee in July 2009. What makes you think there were no gross additions in August?

They spoke about the impact of the fee increase in conference call for Q3 of last year.

I was saying that ARPU went down vs. Q4 of 2009,m where it was pro forma $10.92.

The change was INDEED SUDDEN.

Every new gross addition, every renewal, and every conversion from promotional to self paying was charger the fee since the end of July 2009.

I paid a full year on 3 subs in September, and paid the royalty fee on that full year. You should not minimize what was collected. With 50% of the sub base in annual plans or more, there has been a TON of royalty revenue collected prior to Q1 of this year.

I do not think I am talking to someone who does not understand the metrics. I know you understand them. The facts are it was a non ARPU-item before, and it is an ARPU item now.

The company discounting the service substantially to keep churn in check.

Come on Tyler are you gettin enough sleep. Did you read this part of my post??

"What it has only been put into effect since July 29th of 2009 http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/us...ive-today.html that they started it. That means NOONE was even paying it until the 1st of Sep. of 2009. Need I say most only had to pay up for three months and they did not have to pay the fee till after the new year and into WHATS THAT, yes the 1st quarter of this year."


That means July was basically over. (and ok) ALMOST noone would have paid the fee until Sep. 1st.

Tyler we are talking about 1st quarter which started in Jan. and went through to March. That is a mere 5 months after the start of the fees and most likely only 4 months before the first quarter before they collected anything substantial (here I will even give you this: in comparison to the rest of the subscriber base).


I also believe it was David Frear that said they did not expect to collect much in the first few months after the start and gave the reasons we know (many people would not even have to pay it for some time due to the length of their contract).

Tyler I am not minimizing, I am comparing. Is 10 to 15 million alot of money added in a quarter???? yes taken by itself, but not when compared to 70 to 90 million added in the next quarter then it looks pretty small. It gets even smaller when we look at it on a yearly basis, total royalty fees from subscribers collected in 2009: 10 to 15 million. Now compare that to total royalty fees collected from subscribers in 2010: 270 to 290 million. I think you see the difference.

It was almost nonexsist before it is not now. It was the very beginning of the system before it is not not.

[Spencer Osborne]

John,

You are ignoring every single gross addition in August, September, October, November, and December. Every new gross addition had to pay the new royalty. Every one who came up for renewal (myself included) had to pay. The money was not minimal by any stretch.

The point is that from Q4 2009 to Q1 2010, ARPU went down on an apples to apples basis. I am not saying that it is a terrible thing. It reflects the discounts they are giving to keep people on board. It was necessary.

[Sirius Roadkill]

pretty humorous article . . . writer characterizes "buy-and-hold" effectiveness based on 1 month investment window . . seems to have amnesia about gains from $0.06 to $1.06 or 1,667%

Trader-Favorite Sirius Is Far From Radio’s Top Performer
by Owen Vater | May 11th

Recent drama tied to Nasdaq’s listing requirements has kept Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) on the radar of late, and while traders drive the stock’s average volume north of 150 million shares per day, buy and hold investors would have been much better off in other radio names over the last month. Given that Sirius has gained 9% for the period, that says a lot for the recent radio rally, and with most firms more than -10% off their 52-week highs, there could be room to the upside.

As a whole, the Radio Stocks Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 10.5% over the last month, with penny player Citadel Broadcasting (CTDBQ) leading the way.

Meanwhile, Emmis Communications (EMMS),Cumulus Media (CMLS), and Saga Communications (SGA) are all outperforming Sirius for the period, with respective gains of 63%, 20%, and 10.5%. Cumulus partnered with private equity firm Crestview Partners and other investors to pursue acquisitions in early-April. Later that month Emmis received a buyout offer from JS Acquisition and Alden Global Capital worth $2.40 a share.

As the economy rebounds, firms will likely continue to open their wallets for advertising spending, which was slashed drastically during the recession. That’s also good news for various components of the Broadcast TV Stocks Index, where Gray Television (GTN), Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI), and Fisher Communications (FSCI) have all gained over 10% over the past month.

It will be interesting to see if Sirius can maintain its pricing above the $1 mark without a reverse split, and investors will also be watching for developments related to the potential Cumulus buying spree. Investors can track the Radio Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

[Sirius Roadkill]

'Sirius Internet Radio,' Gmail: Hot Trends
By Jeanine Poggi 05/11/10 - 11:46 AM EDT

"Sirius Internet radio" is another hot topic, but there doesn't seem to be any news driving the searches -- so far as we can tell. Shares of Sirius XM Radio(SIRI) are hovering around the $1.10 mark today, after Sirius XM stock three weeks ago cleared the $1.00 level required for Nasdaq listing requirements. Subscribers to Sirius XM Radio can also listen online at Sirius Internet Radio."

[john]

John,

You are ignoring every single gross addition in August, September, October, November, and December. Every new gross addition had to pay the new royalty. Every one who came up for renewal (myself included) had to pay. The money was not minimal by any stretch.

The point is that from Q4 2009 to Q1 2010, ARPU went down on an apples to apples basis. I am not saying that it is a terrible thing. It reflects the discounts they are giving to keep people on board. It was necessary.

Tyler I am not, Look at it this way lets say gross adds were 500,000 for each month That means that for every month that 500,000 gets 750,000 dollars on average per month that means, subs in Aug. = 3.75 million, subs in Sep. = 3 million, subs in Oct. = 2.25 million, subs in Nov. =1.5 million, and subs in Dec. = .75 million. SOOOOO,

3.75 + 3 + 2.25 + 1.5 + .75 = 11.25 million for all of those months for most of the gross adds. Here I will even add 100,000 per month in net adds which means an additional 2.25 million. SOOOOO 11.25M + 2.25M = 13.5M.

So I will see you that and I raise you what David Frear said about the issue, (they did not expect to collect much in the first few months after the start and gave as the reasons, many people would not even have to pay it for some time due to the length of their contracts).


Now Tyler ether you are rich or stupid because being the cheap basterd I am, I would have renewed before the royality fees went into effect. Especially with your end date coming so soon after the effective date of the royalty fees. Then again you may have your personal reasons for wasting money. I dont know but I cant see any deal you could have had that would justify not renewing with the end date so close to the royalty fee date to be included in the grandfather clause. I know I am just a simple man so maybe I am missing something here.


You say apples to apples, I to am comparing apples to apples it is just I am including extra apples that came into the company you are not.

[candleman]

That is pretty humorous RoadKill.

I guess those small 1,667% gains just don't register for some long term investors. It sure works for me!!!!

pretty humorous article . . . writer characterizes "buy-and-hold" effectiveness based on 1 month investment window . . seems to have amnesia about gains from $0.06 to $1.06 or 1,667%

Trader-Favorite Sirius Is Far From Radio’s Top Performer
by Owen Vater | May 11th

Recent drama tied to Nasdaq’s listing requirements has kept Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) on the radar of late, and while traders drive the stock’s average volume north of 150 million shares per day, buy and hold investors would have been much better off in other radio names over the last month. Given that Sirius has gained 9% for the period, that says a lot for the recent radio rally, and with most firms more than -10% off their 52-week highs, there could be room to the upside.

As a whole, the Radio Stocks Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 10.5% over the last month, with penny player Citadel Broadcasting (CTDBQ) leading the way.

Meanwhile, Emmis Communications (EMMS),Cumulus Media (CMLS), and Saga Communications (SGA) are all outperforming Sirius for the period, with respective gains of 63%, 20%, and 10.5%. Cumulus partnered with private equity firm Crestview Partners and other investors to pursue acquisitions in early-April. Later that month Emmis received a buyout offer from JS Acquisition and Alden Global Capital worth $2.40 a share.

As the economy rebounds, firms will likely continue to open their wallets for advertising spending, which was slashed drastically during the recession. That’s also good news for various components of the Broadcast TV Stocks Index, where Gray Television (GTN), Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI), and Fisher Communications (FSCI) have all gained over 10% over the past month.

It will be interesting to see if Sirius can maintain its pricing above the $1 mark without a reverse split, and investors will also be watching for developments related to the potential Cumulus buying spree. Investors can track the Radio Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

[Sirius Roadkill]

The point is that from Q4 2009 to Q1 2010, ARPU went down on an apples to apples basis. I am not saying that it is a terrible thing. It reflects the discounts they are giving to keep people on board. It was necessary.

Sometimes I think it is difficult, or at least gets a bit murky, to try and extract any definitive conclusions relative to quarter-over-quarter metrics shifts in this particular business model.

The problem of course lies in trying to interpret "unsmoothed" seasonal variables that effect things like SAAR, Churn, Revenue, SAC and yes, even ARPU . . . with this company, even year-over-year comparisons can often be convoluted due to the pro forma accounting or extreme financial duress of the past.

Anyway, Q4 to Q1 comparisons can be particularly troublesome due to the seasonal influences that we have already discussed here ad nauseum.

ok, I think we've killed this . . . what else can we disect?

[Sirius Roadkill]

here you go . . . first Jimmy's little site does the pump . . . then Jimmy's little site does the dump:

btw . . . could you imagine going through high school with this guy's last name?

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vide...=1#84381902001

[SiriuslyLong]

Sometimes I think it is difficult, or at least gets a bit murky, to try and extract any definitive conclusions relative to quarter-over-quarter metrics shifts in this particular business model.

The problem of course lies in trying to interpret "unsmoothed" seasonal variables that effect things like SAAR, Churn, Revenue, SAC and yes, even ARPU . . . with this company, even year-over-year comparisons can often be convoluted due to the pro forma accounting or extreme financial duress of the past.

Anyway, Q4 to Q1 comparisons can be particularly troublesome due to the seasonal influences that we have already discussed here ad nauseum.

ok, I think we've killed this . . . what else can we disect?

Mount it on the wall!

Can you believe 2Q2010 is a couple days away from being half over? Next CC is probably early August (my birthday!!). With each pre CC run up in price, what do you think it will hit this time around? My guess is $1.50; then afterwards back to $1.25; that is, unless Mel can deliver above expectations.

I know BGB just raised their price target. Any more forthcoming?

Hmmmm, taking on a little water here with 25 minutes left in the session.

[Sirius Roadkill]

DirecTV CEO sees leadership in 3-D TV giving his satellite TV company competitive edge

Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 7, 2010, 6:22 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- In the race for supremacy in 3-D television, DirecTV Inc. wants to be king.

DirecTV's exclusive NFL Sunday Ticket package of out-of-market football games has been a hit. Now the company has eyes on creating what it hopes to be its next competitive edge: extensive 3-D programming including movies, documentaries and events. In June, DirecTV will debut four 3-D channels: ESPN 3D and three of its own channels.

But DirecTV has to snag exclusive 3-D content to stand apart from cable TV rivals that also want to ramp up 3-D TV. DirecTV CEO Michael White also acknowledged that wide adoption of 3-D TV requires that more content be produced in 3-D. More consumers also must buy 3-D TV sets and be comfortable with 3-D glasses.

"How many consumers will buy a 3-D TV set? Time will tell," White said in an interview Friday.

Not all shows are suitable for 3-D. White said the best 3-D programming are in the areas of children's animation and sports.

"Is someone going to watch the evenings news in 3-D? Probably not," he said.

Still, 3-D seems to be the next technology trend in TV. Samsung and Panasonic have started selling 3-D TV sets as 3-D movies such as "Alice in Wonderland" and "Avatar" packed theaters. Hollywood hopes to bring the 3-D experience to the living room. But whether 3-D sticks is another matter.

White said DirecTV is not planning to buy another company to get more 3-D or other content. Its rival, Comcast Corp., made the opposite bet with its proposal to buy a 51 percent stake in NBC Universal from General Electric Co.; federal regulators are reviewing that deal.

Separately, White dismissed talk that DirecTV might be interested in purchasing Sirius XM Radio Inc. They both use satellites, and DirecTV could add a radio service to its bundle of TV plans. But White indicated that DirecTV wants to stay focused on providing the best TV entertainment to retain its highest-spending customers.
"We want to be the best, not necessarily the cheapest," White said.