As to your first point, that is exactly what is happening now with the royalty fees, they are putting them were they belong in ARPU.
As to your second point, Tyler while you might think you are talking to an idiot when it comes to the metrics I asure you I am fully aware of them and the history of them. I have been invested in these companies for almost if not longer then you. Second just because normal history says one thing does not mean it happens that way all the time you should know that with this company by now. As an example when was the last time they ever had a better FCF number in the 3rd quarter then they did in the 4th. Thats right besides this past 3rd and 4th quarter they NEVER did. Now lets take a trip down memory lane. Do you recall what the sub adds looked like in the 4th quarter of 2008........ Thats right they were terrible, as a matter of memory (which is not so good anymore) I think it was the first time in that they had a worse 4th quarter then their 3rd quarter for sub adds. That directly effects the churn number for 1st quarter of 2010. Here I will let you in on what must be my own little secret. They lost subs in the 1st quarter (remember about 500,000 of them) of last year which would naturally bring down churn by itself because the same works Tyler less people that have an anniversary date for their signing up. How much you want to bet churn drops again YOY for the 2nd quarter because they lost subs again a year ago.
As to your third point. What are you talking about "long ago". What it has only been put into effect since July 29th of 2009 http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/us...ive-today.html that they started it. That means NOONE was even paying it until the 1st of Sep. of 2009. Need I say most only had to pay up for three months and they did not have to pay the fee till after the new year and into WHATS THAT, yes the 1st quarter of this year. That last point of yours Tyler has me ready to call you a twit because now your trying to be a tad bit dishonest and illogical to try and get your point across and I cant stand that. Also the jury is still out I guess from what other analyst are saying ARPU did without the royalty fee.
So please say it a little loader because I am getting conflicting reports on that.
On your final point, They did not suddenly change anything as I pointed out most subscribers, most likely were not even paying it till the 1st quarter of 2010 anyway.
Long agoi was as in almost a year.
John. They added the fee in July 2009. What makes you think there were no gross additions in August?
They spoke about the impact of the fee increase in conference call for Q3 of last year.
I was saying that ARPU went down vs. Q4 of 2009,m where it was pro forma $10.92.
The change was INDEED SUDDEN.
Every new gross addition, every renewal, and every conversion from promotional to self paying was charger the fee since the end of July 2009.
I paid a full year on 3 subs in September, and paid the royalty fee on that full year. You should not minimize what was collected. With 50% of the sub base in annual plans or more, there has been a TON of royalty revenue collected prior to Q1 of this year.
I do not think I am talking to someone who does not understand the metrics. I know you understand them. The facts are it was a non ARPU-item before, and it is an ARPU item now.
The company discounting the service substantially to keep churn in check.