Page 13 of 22 FirstFirst ... 31112131415 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 130 of 220

Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010

  1. #121
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Tyler your arguement would have merit if they had always charged the royalty fees (PAID BY THE SUBSCRIBER) for the last 10 years and not included them in ARPU and then all of a sudden they started to. The problem is they did not start to just now (basically because now is when most are being charged). It also would have merit if the fee was not JUST added on to the total subscription price. It does not matter if they are paying it right back out because they were doing that anyway BEFORE they added it to the subscription price. So the point being the cost were always there FROM THE BEGINNING but the extra fees (revenue) they are NOW charging the subscribers were not.
    Sorry Tyler . . . I think john has got ya on this one too

  2. #122
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer Osborne View Post
    John,

    The OEM payments are a PORTION of the revenue collected, and were part of the business from the start. there was no monkey business about it. No changes...everyone knew the rules of the game.

    Churn is ALWAYS highest in Q1. Even without the royalty fee. January is the largest month for subscription expiration. The higher churn would have had little to do with the royalty fee increase.

    The royalty fee increase started Long ago, and was specifically EXCLUDED from ARPU by Sirius XM. This is the FIRST quarter that they included it in ARPU. On a year over year basis, TAKING THE ROYALTY FEES OUT OF THE EQUATION, ARPU WENT DOWN.

    You want me to say it loud and clear.

    ARPU WAS DOWN FROM Q4 2009 BY $0.29 PRO FORMA.

    It is that plain, and that simple. You are arguing with me when you should be arguing with Sirius XM. They are the ones that excluded it originally, and they are the ones who made the sudden change THIS QUARTER. They are the ones who were exclusing it because it was a pass-thru.


    As to your first point, that is exactly what is happening now with the royalty fees, they are putting them were they belong in ARPU.

    As to your second point, Tyler while you might think you are talking to an idiot when it comes to the metrics I asure you I am fully aware of them and the history of them. I have been invested in these companies for almost if not longer then you. Second just because normal history says one thing does not mean it happens that way all the time you should know that with this company by now. As an example when was the last time they ever had a better FCF number in the 3rd quarter then they did in the 4th. Thats right besides this past 3rd and 4th quarter they NEVER did. Now lets take a trip down memory lane. Do you recall what the sub adds looked like in the 4th quarter of 2008........ Thats right they were terrible, as a matter of memory (which is not so good anymore) I think it was the first time in that they had a worse 4th quarter then their 3rd quarter for sub adds. That directly effects the churn number for 1st quarter of 2010. Here I will let you in on what must be my own little secret. They lost subs in the 1st quarter (remember about 500,000 of them) of last year which would naturally bring down churn by itself because the same works Tyler less people that have an anniversary date for their signing up. How much you want to bet churn drops again YOY for the 2nd quarter because they lost subs again a year ago.


    As to your third point. What are you talking about "long ago". What it has only been put into effect since July 29th of 2009 http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/us...ive-today.html that they started it. That means NOONE was even paying it until the 1st of Sep. of 2009. Need I say most only had to pay up for three months and they did not have to pay the fee till after the new year and into WHATS THAT, yes the 1st quarter of this year. That last point of yours Tyler has me ready to call you a twit because now your trying to be a tad bit dishonest and illogical to try and get your point across and I cant stand that. Also the jury is still out I guess from what other analyst are saying ARPU did without the royalty fee.


    So please say it a little loader because I am getting conflicting reports on that.


    On your final point, They did not suddenly change anything as I pointed out most subscribers, most likely were not even paying it till the 1st quarter of 2010 anyway.

  3. #123
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    "Comparing the companyís Q1 2010 reported ARPU (average revenue per user) of $11.48 to the Q1 2009 reported ARPU of $10.43, Arenson notes that the music royalty pass-through revenue, which has now been added to ARPU for the first time, made up about $0.85 of this quarters reported ARPU. As a result, ARPU would have been about $10.63 without the music royalty pass-through revenue included."

    http://satelliteradioplayground.com/...-price-target/

    SHIT i should have read after Tylers Post before I posted.

  4. #124
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    11. Is this fee consistent with SIRIUS XMís merger commitment not to raise prices for three years?

    Yes. This fee is consistent with our commitment not to raise the base price of specific service plans for three years after the merger. The FCC decision approving the merger between SIRIUS and XM permits the companies beginning July 29, 2009 to pass through to subscribers any increases in music royalties since March 20, 2007, the day the companies first asked the FCC to approve the merger. The U.S. Music Royalty Fee implements this FCC decision.

    SHIT, SHIT, now this is just embarrassing.

  5. #125
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    I do agree with this logic

    I am just glad that you did not put up another post that I later repeated.

  6. #126
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Sorry Tyler . . . I think john has got ya on this one too

    Well you beat me to the punch with your other post. I should have read further and saved myself a lot of typing (that I suck at). Thanks anyway SRK.

  7. #127
    Spencer Osborne is offline
    Enthusiast
    Spencer Osborne's Avatar
    Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 101
    John....

    Long agoi was as in almost a year.

    John. They added the fee in July 2009. What makes you think there were no gross additions in August?

    They spoke about the impact of the fee increase in conference call for Q3 of last year.

    I was saying that ARPU went down vs. Q4 of 2009,m where it was pro forma $10.92.

    The change was INDEED SUDDEN.

    Every new gross addition, every renewal, and every conversion from promotional to self paying was charger the fee since the end of July 2009.

    I paid a full year on 3 subs in September, and paid the royalty fee on that full year. You should not minimize what was collected. With 50% of the sub base in annual plans or more, there has been a TON of royalty revenue collected prior to Q1 of this year.

    I do not think I am talking to someone who does not understand the metrics. I know you understand them. The facts are it was a non ARPU-item before, and it is an ARPU item now.

    The company discounting the service substantially to keep churn in check.

  8. #128

  9. #129
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Thanks Luv-Bug

  10. #130
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Thanks Luv-Bug
    You are welcome.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 13 of 22 FirstFirst ... 31112131415 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •