Sirius Weekly Thread May 3, 2010

[Sirius Roadkill]

Every time I ran a scenario, it came out Stern was worth it. Let's try it again.

2 MM subs x $10 / sub = $20MM per month x 12 months per year = $240 MM / year.

Say 1 MM subs; then you $120 MM per year. Say 500k subs; then $60 MM per year.

From a revenue perspective, these scenarios appear favorable. What we don't neccessarily know is expenses.

Here ya go SL:

"SIRIUS estimates that Stern only would need to generate approximately 1 million subscribers in order to cover the costs of the deal. Total production and operating costs for the Stern show, including compensation of the show cast and staff, overhead, construction costs for a dedicated studio, and a budget for the development of additional programming and marketing concepts, is estimated to be approximately $100 million per year."

[SiriuslyLong]

Here ya go SL:

"SIRIUS estimates that Stern only would need to generate approximately 1 million subscribers in order to cover the costs of the deal. Total production and operating costs for the Stern show, including compensation of the show cast and staff, overhead, construction costs for a dedicated studio, and a budget for the development of additional programming and marketing concepts, is estimated to be approximately $100 million per year."

There we go, pay the bastard.

[john]

Man hey, SiriuslyLong, I thought I had already covered that when I posted this (I know you are not into long post but come on man, that was all me and not just some cut and paste job):

"Mel has already said, if they get just 1 million subs from Stern then he has paid for himself (and that does not count advertising revenue)."

That was said by Mel, by the way, ON JIM CRAMERS SHOW "Mad Money"!!!!!

He had also spoke about the metrics of Sterns fans and broke the 12 million down a little bit. Basically he called 3 million of them total followers. He had projected that they would most likely get most of those 3 million. SIRI was not stupid they did the studies on his fans and they knew very well what they could expect before they signed him.


By the way, FYI, SIRI in the quarter just before the signing went from 1 million subs (after over 2 years) to 2 million subs in just one quarter. Now while you can contribute some of that million to what they would have gotten anyway (about 300,000 taken from history of last 4th quarters) the rest was clearly because of Stern and all the FREE press he got them. As a matter of fact you could make the arguement that he paid at least half of his yearly salery before he even started because of all the advertising (free press) he got them. So while some came because of him, some also came because for the first time people found out about SIRI because of him.


It is just to bad this kind of discussion is not done at thestreet.com before they put out an article or video. Then again it may not matter unless they are really that stupid.

[Big Ben]

I have to jump into the Stern debate for just a second before I say I told you so. I have not listened to the Stern show for a few months, when he takes massive breaks I lose interest and find plenty of other good stuff else where. I popped in the other day and I heard the Tradeo calls that Richard and Sal were dropping, unfin believable. Falling out of your seat funny. I have a lab top with a few gizz stains on it and on and on they hijack the show, it is really radio gold if you ask me. Hilarious. Its plain and simple Stern saved this piece of shit company hands down, without him everyone would have lost. Stern should be paid what ever he wants, within reason, they are foolish not to pay the man.

Now lets get to the meat and potatoes of what is going on in the world. Need I say its bad and the party is over. If you can not read the writing on the wall and get to cash or short positions then you are truly ****ing delusional. My buddy who has been gloating for the past 2 months has lost a dollar on Citi group, continues to buy into TBT, dollar cost averaging into INtel, and is starting to buy into Cramers bullshit. A year ago before the re-inflation of the bubble, we new cramer was a raging lunatic, now that the market has gone up some crazy % in a year my buddy is starting to fall back into the bear trap. Cramers book and techniques are sound, but thats it. The guy pumps stocks and does not buy any short positions in his CT. His returns over the long haul are better than most, he is a genius, don't get that twisted. In reality he buys stocks and pumps them up and he is good at it. In the past year, did it really matter what stocks you picked to pump? Not really, advancer consistently out paced decliners. Can you imagine if he was able to short stocks he said were going to go down? He would destroy the market, like back when he was a hedge fund mgr. Now all the bad stuff, his connections to GS are obvious, he was shocked when the stock dipped as fast as it did and as far. The entire way down he is saying it still a good buy, the only reason is he ****ing owns it in his charitable trust, CT. When Sirius was in a fight with the FCC and Feds he stated any investigations into a company are never good, cash out and buy back in after the smoke clears. What a dick, he talks out of both sides of his ass. What set me off today and convinced me I am still all over this market pulse, was a combo of Cramer and Kudlow. Cramer is saying don't worry about contagion (Greeks are burning each other alive). Lie, he does not believe that. I also want to call bullshit on the theory about other countries debt issues makes our market look more attractive, it does a little, but the not enough to offset the overall volatility and spike in the vix. People are scared. Asia has taken a pounding over the last three weeks and Europe has also been taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back. The next theory that went out the bs window was the US was decoupling from the global decline...bs...that happened one or two days. So what I am getting at is Rome is burning and Nero is fiddling away. Now to kudlow and I will make this quick, he comes out and basically lays out a few scenarios most bad and gets his panel to mostly agree things look bad and if the Germans don't get the Geeks 140 billion on Friday, we could be looking at a tarp 1 not passing and sliding 700 points. After all of the sound rational debate, Kudlow asks the panel for a one word answer if you would be buying or selling stocks in the market, Forbes buying, clown 2 buying, Smart guy....CASH. They all laughed but they know with the risk out there the upside looks grim. Cash is were you want to be or short FAZ, FXP, FAZ 11-12.80 FXP also starting to charge.

Market report on Asia and Pacific, all markets down 1-3%. Europe is going to open week, shocker and we will follow suit. Today was perfect example the fear and the bears are taking control, market down close to 100 goes green and comes back to finish weak. Say what you want about me being a broken record. I understand your argument and you have short term history on your side but if this market plummets you know I won't be surprised. Hell one of the main causes of this mess still has not been addressed, housing.

Good luck tomorrow and hit the sell button once or twice you might actually thank me in a few weeks.

Big Ben

[Big Ben]

Looks like the bears are firmly in control. Two days in a row there was a nice head fake to the upside followed with heavy selling. Actually as I am typing this they are trying to reverse the selling. I will be curious to see the exit today. IMVHO the doors are starting to get smaller. Don't be a lump and let monster gains dwindle down to no gains or even losses, it pains me to see people not protect there profits.

Chicken Little

Market is getting weaker, I just checked again and the shorts are all trending up on almost the exact path, not good for the bulls, but this is not over. Nobody remembers the half time score!

[jonpluc@aol.com]

Some big pullback today huh?


Hope Jon Pluc was lucky enough to ring the bell at $1.11

but somehow I doubt he did . . . poor bastard

I am a poor bastard. I bought at 1.08 then literally 15 minutes later lost almost 8% of my investment when it freefell to 1.01

[Big Ben]

Next siri purchase for me will be around .82 level...the stock seems to hit resistance there. I hope some of the twits and dumb asses on here were smart enough to cash some in 1.2 range, somehow I don't believe they did. Good luck today

Sincerely Ray Ramano...alone in Rightsville again!

This pull back is starting to get some serious traction, or wait maybe its not a pull back, maybe its the bubble bursting that everyone has been riding up to millionaire land.

Protect your stack the big blind is coming for your chips...don't be bullied.

[john]

I am a poor bastard. I bought at 1.08 then literally 15 minutes later lost almost 8% of my investment when it freefell to 1.01

Hey you should have known better then to listen to Sirius Roadkill.


Sirius Roadkill, you should have known better then to trust this pig, it makes a lier out of you almost everytime.

[john]

Next siri purchase for me will be around .82 level...the stock seems to hit resistance there. I hope some of the twits and dumb asses on here were smart enough to cash some in 1.2 range, somehow I don't believe they did. Good luck today

Sincerely Ray Ramano...alone in Rightsville again!

This pull back is starting to get some serious traction, or wait maybe its not a pull back, maybe its the bubble bursting that everyone has been riding up to millionaire land.

Protect your stack the big blind is coming for your chips...don't be bullied.

Big Ben while I agree with the people should have sold at somewhere at 1.20. I disagree with the waiting till .82. I disagree so much that I bought back at 1.05 (so jonpluc@aol.com dont feel to bad, you have company with you.). I think .82 is just way to low and yes at the risk of this pig making me look like a lier I to will say I dont think it gets that low.

P.S. Now Big Ben I dont expect you to come back here and say later that you bought back at .92 after it went as low as .91 and then came back to 1.10. That is, without you coming here and saying you are changing your opinion on that previous low price target. Because that is the problem I have with you, it makes you look totally dishonest and I give no respect to those people here as you have already personally seen.

[doclogic]

Ben..... your negative mindset is always taken in perspective....thanks again for your thoughts. You are obviously a smart guy..... but the sky isn't always falling and those who don't trade on the daily emotional swings are very happy with Sirius.......and Sirius longs continues to make money grow.

For the record, I sell some of my Sirius shares with the peaks and buy back at lows.... but it's certainly not the only way to make money with Sirius. And I never get frustrated with the shares I've held for almost a year and a half now.

The big picture for Sirius is bullish....and with the recent dip, a great buying opportunity is occurring this week......Friday might be the best day before a new week and the new table is set for the next move

And for that matter.... many other stocks if you have money available. Life is good.