Sirius Weekly Thread for April 26

[john]

Oops. Assume the average sub is $10 of which $7 goes to the bottom line, and you need damn near 50 MM new subs to get there (just a decimal place off - give me a break lol). That does make me feel a little better, but it's still astronomical to think that SIRI could have 65 - 70 MM total subs.

Trouble is that if SIRI is going to have this massive amount of shares outstanding for 4 - 5 years as suggested, then we can probably count on single digit EPS for 4 - 5 years, no? Oh, that's gonna attract a lot of investors LOL.

Yes, but here I will make you feel even a little better. First the ARPU is actually about 10.78 and may go higher depending on how many deals SIRIXM is giving to keep some of their subscribers with them. Plus while many analyst think that in a year when the 3 years is up after the merger that SIRIXM will raise the price of a subscription. I dont think they will raise it that much if anything, SIRIXM already hit them with a fee that the analyst never saw coming in the first place. Then again the top subscriber was only hit with the fee and not both the fee and the increase rate like the family plans but I think they have raised the price enough and wont do it again for some time.


That is why a split maybe off the table for now but could be put back on after they start to make a profit. Some think that because it will make a profit look better (instead of a .01 profit per share they will have .10 profit per share). It is a magic trick, it is the same as a RS, it does nothing to the actual profit or your holdings, in the amount of how much it is worth.

Look at the bright side of this. I think it will be very possible that they may actually be that profitable well before they get to the point of having to buy back shares. Look if they can just buy most of that debt back they will then have another 300+ million in profit from not having to pay interest, alone. As an example: that latest debt buy back will save them 11 million already.


P.S. We have not even gotten into all the rest of the savings that are still out there and all the cuts still coming down the pike.

[SiriuslyLong]

Yes, but here I will make you feel even a little better. First the ARPU is actually about 10.78 and may go higher depending on how many deals SIRIXM is giving to keep some of their subscribers with them. Plus while many analyst think that in a year when the 3 years is up after the merger that SIRIXM will raise the price of a subscription. I dont think they will raise it that much if anything, SIRIXM already hit them with a fee that the analyst never saw coming in the first place. Then again the top subscriber was only hit with the fee and not both the fee and the increase rate like the family plans but I think they have raised the price enough and wont do it again for some time.


That is why a split maybe off the table for now but could be put back on after they start to make a profit. Some think that because it will make a profit look better (instead of a .01 profit per share they will have .10 profit per share). It is a magic trick, it is the same as a RS, it does nothing to the actual profit or your holdings, in the amount of how much it is worth.

Look at the bright side of this. I think it will be very possible that they may actually be that profitable well before they get to the point of having to buy back shares. Look if they can just buy most of that debt back they will then have another 300+ million in profit from not having to pay interest, alone. As an example: that latest debt buy back will save them 11 million already.


P.S. We have not even gotten into all the rest of the savings that are still out there and all the cuts still coming down the pike.

I've always been a proponent of a R/S for the very reason of increasing EPS. I realize it is a dressing, and doesn't change anything, but it does make the stock more attractive to investors long term. IMO the current argument against the R/S is timing.

300 MM in interest expense certainly motivates SIRI to pay it off.

This will all unravel 1 quarter at a time.

[Hopeful]

Tyler ONCE AGAIN THANK YOU SOOOO MUCH FOR BRINGING SB RADIO BACK!!! LISTENING TO THE SHOW RIGHT NOW AND LOVING IT!!! THANKS AGAIN, CHEERS HOPEFUL!!!

[SiriuslyLong]

Tyler ONCE AGAIN THANK YOU SOOOO MUCH FOR BRINGING SB RADIO BACK!!! LISTENING TO THE SHOW RIGHT NOW AND LOVING IT!!! THANKS AGAIN, CHEERS HOPEFUL!!!

I'm more thankful that he's writing tons of articles! Keep 'em coming!

[SSG]

Wow....Thanks for the kind words.

Cheers

[Spencer Osborne]

It has been a busy week, and we at SiriusBuzz are making efforts to improve things on the dite and in the forums.

With that in mind, I would like to request that we try to keep things topical and post in the correct forums.

In particular, any political and religious items should not be put in this section of the forums. If we want the community here to grow, we need to make sure we do not alienate people because of the discussions that are ongoing, and may make people feel uncomfortable.

I have received a few emails on this subject, and would ask that the political talk go to the political forums. thank for your understanding

[john]

It has been a busy week, and we at SiriusBuzz are making efforts to improve things on the dite and in the forums.

With that in mind, I would like to request that we try to keep things topical and post in the correct forums.

In particular, any political and religious items should not be put in this section of the forums. If we want the community here to grow, we need to make sure we do not alienate people because of the discussions that are ongoing, and may make people feel uncomfortable.

I have received a few emails on this subject, and would ask that the political talk go to the political forums. thank for your understanding

While I can agree with some of that, I also think there is nothing worse then DEAD AIR and at times something is better then nothing. The best way to keep the other crap out and to keep it on topic is if there is something on topic to talk about. I think now that you are back here more Tyler that should be left upto you. So I will expect to see more post from you in the future.

Thanks in advance

john



As a side note: I think we all can agree that while there were many post that were not on topic it has been those threads that has seen the most activity in a long long time here. Also I think if you look at the history of threads you will find most of the other crap happened only really after another weekly thread was started and the prior thread was basically laid to rest (a dead thread).

[SiriuslyLong]

I have received a few emails on this subject, and would ask that the political talk go to the political forums. thank for your understanding

Hmmmmm, let me guess. Something wax related?? John does make a good point though; I was glad to this board come to life again.

[Spencer Osborne]

John,

I understand, and know that things sometimes do get off topic. That is natural. I am just asking that people to try to respect that some are uncomfortable with the political banter. There are many "lurkers" who read the boards, but do not post because they don't want to get into that banter.

We would like to see this community grow and thrive, and simply need to make it hospitable.

I will post here on occasion, but often am doing other preparations for shows, research, etc.

[sxminvestor]

John,

I understand, and know that things sometimes do get off topic. That is natural. I am just asking that people to try to respect that some are uncomfortable with the political banter. There are many "lurkers" who read the boards, but do not post because they don't want to get into that banter.

We would like to see this community grow and thrive, and simply need to make it hospitable.

I will post here on occasion, but often am doing other preparations for shows, research, etc.

Spencer,

Will you be doing a earnings review with all the key metrics for Monday a.m. ?