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Thread: Siri to add subs in q1

  1. #1
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Siri to add subs in q1

    Read this & learn . . . do not be distracted by all of the background noise about bogus delisting claims and short interest volume:

    SIRI TO ADD SUBS IN Q1
    by john
    Posted April 12

    Well we will find out soon enough how many subs were added (Yes I do think they unexpectly (even to Mel) added subs this quarter). The question is how many. From what I have been seeing estimates range from a loss of 260,000 to some non analyst that think a 300,000 gain. Both ends of the spectrum are way out there. Listen while it is hard to project that close, it is also easy enough to come to a reasonable estimate. First you just have to look at past churn from past quarters to get a grasp of the kind of churn we will see this quarter. Then you just have to take in some of the reported numbers of OEMs. While that gets you most of the way the other numbers (like used OEM and retail sales) are a little harder to guess. So looking at an average loss of subscribers, you come to at least 1.5 million subs churning out this quarter. Then we take the new car sales for the quarter which are around 2.5 million, then just multiply that by 60% (.6 for the dumb twits like Havasucker out there). That gets us to a number of basically 1.5 million, so that means that the new OEM (we dont know what the used OEM number is) sales will just about even out. That means what is left (retail and used OEM sales) is a plus to the rolls for SIRIXM. That is where the guess work comes in. Since we know SIRIXM cant call any used car on promo deal a subscriber it makes that a little easyer.

    So here gos the guess work. I will guess that they added anywhere from 70,000 to 100,000 new retail (not net mind you but any loss of retail is already taken out in the 1.5 million number for all-in churn). Then because of when the used OEM programs went into effect and the length of the promotions, I only see 5,000 to 15,000 adds there. So if you take a few thousand (we will call it 5,000) from new OEM sales and add that to 70,000 to 100,000 from retail and add that to the 5,000 to 15,000 used OEM sales, you get a range of about 80,000 to 120,000.

    I know that number is alot lower then some would like. For those who do then just think of it this way. There is no way in hell Mel thought they would be adding any subs in the first quarter when he gave his projection of 500,000 for the year. The reason why, because the numbers he had at the time he said it, were terrible. If Jan. and Feb. OEM sales where carried over to Mar. there would have to be at least a small loss of subs.
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-13-2010 at 11:41 AM.

  2. #2
    john is offline
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    Why, why, Sirius Roadkill, you could not wait ONE DAY. OK I'll say it, I was off. Yes I was WRONG.

  3. #3
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Why, why, Sirius Roadkill, you could not wait ONE DAY. OK I'll say it, I was off. Yes I was WRONG.
    Your forecast was rock-solid imo . . . and much closer than others I had seen

    You also properly warned that retail and CPO involved guesswork!

    I will be very-very interested to see where these ads came from . . . I am skeptical that retail could have added that much

    I judge a forecast as follows:

    1.) Was the methodology selected appropriate and correctly employed
    2.) Were the underlying assumptions utilized well-supported
    3.) Were the computations clearly illustrated & free of error
    4.) Was the forecast presented in a logical and unbiased manner

    Your forecast met all of the above criteria. Given all of the vaiables and unknowns involved, hitting the exact number is really just a matter of coincidence anyway . . . the important thing is that the direction of your forecast was correct and the magnitude was reasonably in-line with what was reported . . .

    No one lost money on your forecast . . . in fact, had investors bought-in to your forecast, today they have a nice upside surprise!

    IMO you got it RIGHT . . .

  4. #4
    john is offline
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    Ho brother I think it was you who was more correct. If I would have listened to you and gave them a better churn, then I would have been right on target. I believe the extra came from the 11% better churn rate, Mel said churn improved to.

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