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Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for April 5, 2010

  1. #21
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SSG View Post
    By - Spencer Osborne

    This deserves an article, but I know I will get slammed if I write it. Today Stern discussed the Sirius XM customer service stance that, "Stern will be back, he has nowhere else to go."

    Now some of this is hyped by Stern, that is for sure.....however, there is an issue with customer service telling consumers that Stern will be back. The fact is that they don't know yet, and to tell consumers misinformation is simply wrong.

    Not only is it wrong, but it gives Stern MORE ammunition in his negotiations with Sirius XM.

    The fact of the matter is that the Stern issue needs to be solved prior to the Q4 retail selling season. The company will have a "moral" dilemma of a Q3 and Q4 advertising campaign that touts Stern when he may not yet be signed. Thus, they will likely have to do a campaign without Stern, which in and of itself will raise even more questions and concerns.

    It is for this reason that the company needs to resolve this in the next 3 to 4 months, or risk having to advertise without the ability to tout Stern.

    If Stern is not signing, the company can focus and promote alternative content.

    The bottom line is that customer service needs to be put under more control, and Sirius XM needs to get to a decision on the Stern issue. Time is ticking
    ok Spence, here goes . . . yes, Stern is in fact a relevant discussion point . . . but not today, not on a day when the trading volume is 600,000,000 shares!

    I do realize Sirius Buzz serves an audience that is wider than equity investors, and I have seen Charles note on more than one occassion that the greatest amount of site activity relates to service issues, but on a day like today, with record volume on the heels of an HSR filing, Howard Stern's issues with Customer Service can wait . . .

  2. #22
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    30 Day Volume Chart

    Date Open High Low Close Volume
    4/7/2010 0.878 0.9597 0.8745 0.9534 609,419,127
    4/6/2010 0.855 0.88 0.855 0.8698 146,426,500
    4/5/2010 0.855 0.88 0.85 0.8649 237,172,900
    4/1/2010 0.8791 0.9 0.84 0.8401 225,654,600
    3/31/2010 0.84 0.873 0.82 0.8705 213,234,000
    3/30/2010 0.84 0.86 0.8192 0.8393 181,570,200
    3/29/2010 0.8671 0.8696 0.835 0.8421 141,988,500
    3/26/2010 0.8805 0.8918 0.851 0.8601 168,981,300
    3/25/2010 0.89 0.92 0.87 0.8733 219,150,500
    3/24/2010 0.89 0.9 0.8601 0.8811 162,564,000
    3/23/2010 0.8824 0.89 0.85 0.8666 122,882,700
    3/22/2010 0.82 0.9 0.7899 0.8602 237,234,300
    3/19/2010 0.8703 0.8704 0.82 0.8273 180,279,400
    3/18/2010 0.88 0.8999 0.86 0.8622 122,894,600
    3/17/2010 0.91 0.911 0.88 0.8944 129,592,600
    3/16/2010 0.92 0.9298 0.9 0.905 94,051,150
    3/15/2010 0.9207 0.95 0.89 0.9169 149,515,100
    3/12/2010 0.91 0.931 0.8902 0.91 107,024,100
    3/11/2010 0.937 0.94 0.9 0.9101 74,275,440
    3/10/2010 0.9195 0.9409 0.9101 0.9307 99,386,150
    3/9/2010 0.9 0.9108 0.8684 0.9108 167,901,800
    3/8/2010 0.95 0.97 0.9 0.9 139,918,000

    50 Day Avg. Daily Volume 138,777,885

    Transactions Granted Early Termination under HSR Act: (Note Date: March 31, 2010):
    http://www.ftc.gov/bc/earlyterm/2010/03/et100331.pdf
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-07-2010 at 11:50 PM.

  3. #23
    Havakasha is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    No-no Voogru, I was being facetious . . just taking a playful jab at Lloyd Handwringer aka Havakasha
    You rang? . Well finally we get to listen to some liberal media on Sirius. LOL.

    Yes i would agree this is not the reason for 600 million shares traded today. Seems like a whole host of reasons. I quess we should understand more about whats going on in the next few days.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 04-07-2010 at 11:09 PM.

  4. #24
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    You rang? . Well finally we get to listen to some liberal media on Sirius. LOL.

    Yes i would agree this is not the reason for 600 million shares traded today. Seems like a whole host of reasons. I quess we should understand more about whats going on in the next few days.
    Wow Lloyd, I think you may actually agree with john on this . . . it would appear to my untrained eye, however, that Liberty is buying in the open market and may not be done yet . . . surprising though that the price did not run a bit more with this kind of volume*

    If Liberty continues buying over the next 2 days, the April 29 NASDAQ appeal hearing will be rendered moot (perhaps why the delayed hearing date was sought in the first place).

    As Liberty takes ownership of these shares, increasing their stake from 40% up to a potential cap of 49.9%, any common added to the Liberty portfolio are effectively removed from the float for the time being.


    *(this is all speculation on my part based on HSR early termination and record volume - dyodd; I do not believe predicted Q1 results, MSNBC signing or March auto sales have anything at all to do with today's volume and price movement)
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-07-2010 at 11:48 PM.

  5. #25
    Havakasha is offline
    SR, you may well be right that this is all about Liberty buying up shares. Should know shortly. Would be great if we could get the R/S issues behind us by staying over $1 for 10 days.

  6. #26
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Here's what's going on with SIRI. You guys need me to go on vacation and stop following SIRI. Wow!! What a week, though Liberty's increasing share count has me wondering.

    For Julie - the weather in eastern PA was sunny and HOT, and now I come back to MI for rain and cold. "quid pro quo" = you scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours. That's easier than SRK's definition. Capisce?

    I had a buy order in for 78 last week that didn't get filled. $hit. We know the routine. This time around we'll see $1.30 before it retraces.

  7. #27
    john is offline
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    If I had to make a call on anything, it would be that the news SIRIXM just signed MSNBC to be on, if anything held the PPS down and was a big drag on the PPS. That is more wasted money.


    For Havasucker, just so you know you dumb twit, I could careless about it being liberial. It is not about that, I actually think the Rosey deal was a semi good one. It is all about the ratings MSNBC gets, and they are the lowest around. The only reason I can think of that SIRIXM even bothered to put MSNBC on is because SIRIXM is getting paid to do it and they had some wasted bandwidth to do it.


    As for the RS issue, if Liberty is getting its stake up to 49.9% then at that point the RS will happen because after that they will have nothing (acually very little) to lose by doing it. The only reason Liberty had not to support a RS was the added cost it would take to get the extra 10%. I predict if that is what actually happen then sometime in the future we will see a RS happen but at a lower rate then what was before thought. Did anyone catch the news about a new vote coming to extend the RS isssue and to change the terms of that RS to include a 2 for 1 and no greater then 10 for 1.

  8. #28
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Did anyone catch the news about a new vote coming to extend the RS isssue and to change the terms of that RS to include a 2 for 1 and no greater then 10 for 1.
    Yes, I saw that as well; the fact that they have lowered the ratios has lead some to speculate that there is a greater likelihood that they actually will R/S.

    I have stated this many times before but will say it again . . to me, the most valuable consequence of a reverse split would be MARGIN BUYING coming back into play . . . so at this the point, the 1-for-2 doesn't do diddly-squat for me.

    If the Company does ultimately decide that a R/S is "in the best interest of shareholders," then I want it at the highest ratio possible . . if you toy around with staying too close to $5 on the Reverse, the shorts will smell the blood of MARGIN CALLS and knock it back down below marginable levels, which creates forced selling and facilitates further shorting . .

    I still do not think they will R/S . . . even with Liberty at 49.9% . . . remember one thing, us "unsophisticated shareholders" have virtually no ability to influence corporate governance . . . I think Mel & Frear and Malone kinda like it that way

  9. #29
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Malone's Modus Operandi

    It is not uncommon to see various posts around the net professing Liberty's lack of desire to take outright ownership of Siri based on John Malone's history of similar ventures . . . and maybe they are right.

    But take note, part of John Malone's current divestiture of his interest in Direct TV proposes paying himself a 20% premium on his preferred shares without a shareholder vote.

    Now try that one on for size . . .

    That's why I like that Relmor is firing warning shots across the bow now . . . no more sneaking up on us!

    watch this:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463330379&play=1
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-08-2010 at 01:00 PM.

  10. #30
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    It is not uncommon to see various posts around the net professing Liberty's lack of desire to take outright ownership of Siri based on John Malone's history of similar ventures . . . and maybe they are right.

    But take note, part of John Malone's current divestiture of his interest in Direct TV proposes paying himself a 20% premium on his preferred shares without a shareholder vote.

    Now try that one on for size . . .

    That's why I like that Relmor is firing warning shots across the bow now . . . no more sneaking up on us!

    watch this:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463330379&play=1

    relmor is a freak. Really he is now saying DTV and Liberty are out for themselves!!!!! If you have been going there Sirius Roadkill, then you would have saw me telling relmor this from the beginning and him saying, NO, NO, Liberty and John Malone are good for SIRIXM.

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