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Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for April 5, 2010

  1. #1
    proactiv is offline
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    SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for April 5, 2010

    Spring has sprung! Good week, all. Three weeks ago I was standing in a rare snow flurry here in Georgia and yesterday the high was 86 degrees!

    Will SIRI rise like the thermometer?

  2. #2
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by proactiv View Post
    Spring has sprung! Good week, all. Three weeks ago I was standing in a rare snow flurry here in Georgia and yesterday the high was 86 degrees!

    Will SIRI rise like the thermometer?

    Wow, look at you Proact posting weather reports like I do! I must
    be rubbing off on you.

    And now for Michigan weather. Sunny! 70! I have put away my snow
    shovel for the winter. Bid adios to Propane Man. Spring has arrived.

    Oh ya, Sirius. Hmmmm. I echo Proact.

    Julie

  3. #3
    john is offline
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    Well I just saw an article at Barrons and posted this there:

    "Ho really, 160,000 subs being lost. Is this the same guy that has projected consistantly lower numbers then actually come out. Is this the same guy who needs to be told by David Frear (SIRIXM CFO) information that has been out since May of last year before he gets it (the GM deal and its benefits that David told him about, were in the 10-Q of the first quarter of 2009). Barton Crockett, is a bafoon he should start to actually read the 10-Qs before he even thinks of doing an analysis of a company. I mean really did he forget that they do actually get retail subs and yes I know on a net basis they lose retail but the fact is a all-in churn rate of 2.5 to 2.8 already includes those losses. The problem is, you cant include the retail losses in a all-in churn rate and then only say OEMs is the only place they will get subs. So Barton Crockett gets it I will give him an example; SIRIXM will lose about 1.4 million subs in a all-in churn this quarter, the OEMs will get SIRIXM about 1.375 million new subs at a peneitration rate of 55% (just from the new car sales not including any they may get from the used car market). Yes that is 55% and that comes from SIRIXM (it is different then a convertion rate of 46% Brandon Mathews (Satwaves) is getting confused with) and yes it is or will be in the high 50% range as SIRIXM says because you have to remember that while FORD, GM and others are in the 70% penitration range, Toyota and others are only in the 40% penitration range. OK so back to basics so if they get 1.375 Million (JUST from the OEMs) and they lose a TOTAL of 1.4 million (which already includes any retail losses) then that still leaves any gains that they did get in retail, remember while they may lose more retail then they get they are going to still get some retail and that the all-in churn already takes out the retail losses but the OEM gain does not add in any retail that was added."




    Just did not want all my typing to goto waste.
    Last edited by john; 04-05-2010 at 06:44 PM.

  4. #4
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Well I just saw an article at Barrons and posted this there:

    "Ho really, 160,000 subs being lost. Is this the same guy that has projected consistantly lower numbers then actually come out. Is this the same guy who needs to be told by David Frear (SIRIXM CFO) information that has been out since May of last year before he gets it (the GM deal and its benefits that David told him about, were in the 10-Q of the first quarter of 2009). Barton Crockett, is a bafoon he should start to actually read the 10-Qs before he even thinks of doing an analysis of a company. I mean really did he forget that they do actually get retail subs and yes I know on a net basis they lose retail but the fact is a all-in churn rate of 2.5 to 2.8 already includes those losses. The problem is, you cant include the retail losses in a all-in churn rate and then only say OEMs is the only place they will get subs. So Barton Crockett gets it I will give him an example; SIRIXM will lose about 1.4 million subs in a all-in churn this quarter, the OEMs will get SIRIXM about 1.375 million new subs at a peneitration rate of 55% (just from the new car sales not including any they may get from the used car market). Yes that is 55% and that comes from SIRIXM (it is different then a convertion rate of 46% Brandon Mathews (Satwaves) is getting confused with) and yes it is or will be in the high 50% range as SIRIXM says because you have to remember that while FORD, GM and others are in the 70% penitration range, Toyota and others are only in the 40% penitration range. OK so back to basics so if they get 1.375 Million (JUST from the OEMs) and they lose a TOTAL of 1.4 million (which already includes any retail losses) then that still leaves any gains that they did get in retail, remember while they may lose more retail then they get they are going to still get some retail and that the all-in churn already takes out the retail losses but the OEM gain does not add in any retail that was added."




    Just did not want all my typing to goto waste.
    I also noticed the ramblings of "BARTON CROOKED" . . . whatever he says, good or bad, consider the source . . . just go back and read his reports from November/December 2008 . . .

    As for BM, yes, I noticed that same error but would just assume it to be an honest mistake as surely he understands the difference between the "Install Rate" and the "Take Rate"

    As an aside . . I believe the "Installation Rate" is now reported to be 60% and the "Take Rate" 46.4% . . . I do believe your "net-adds" estimate for Q1-10 is attainable.

    Last report also indicated monthly average "self-pay churn" of 2% (I know you are citing "All-In Churn"); I would not be surprised to see self-pay churn come in around 1.8/1.9% for Q-1

    David Frear . . . .

    "Thanks Mel. Our performance in the fourth quarter and full-year continued to demonstrate the strength of the satellite radio business model and the bright future for our company. Through the worst economic environment in a generation our results are phenomenal.

    Subscription performance in the quarter was encouraging on virtually all fronts. Gross additions in the quarter were at their highest level since Q2 2008 as automotive sales continued their recovery and our penetration reached 55% for the full-year and 60% in the fourth quarter. Auto sales were 10.4 million for the year and SAR ran at a 10.8 million unit pace for the fourth quarter. Conversion rate was up two percentage points from Q4 2008 at 46.4%.

    Self-pay churn was under 2% for the second consecutive quarter despite the introduction of the U.S. music recovery fee in August. Net additions of 257,000 represented our best quarter since Q3 2008 and virtually all of these net additions were self-pay subscribers. We are well positioned for a continuing recovery in the automotive sector with self-pay subs at 15.7 million and total trials, paid and unpaid, in the funnel of 3.6 million as of the end of the year."
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-06-2010 at 01:03 AM.

  5. #5
    john is offline
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    As for Barton Crockett I think we said all that needs top be.

    As for Brandon Mathews I would also like to think he knows better but remember this is the same guy that I needed to explain the difference between all-in churn and self pay churn when he said SIRIXM would lose 2 MILLION subs in 2009. I also dont think he gets the fact that total OEM gains will include used car sales.


    Also thank you, you are correct I should have said and used 60% instead of 55% because while the average is 55% for all of last year they did say that the penetration rate would increase to 60% by the end of the year and it is only logical and reasonable the penetration rate did not go down.

    Finally I think it is best to use all-in churn and not self paid churn because it is the most correct it takes everything into account and does not leave anything out like the self pay churn does. Also as for the churn rate, while I hope it went down, I know the first quarter is generally been the worst of all quarters for churn (from Mel in a CC; 1st quarter is usually been our worst quarter for churn due to the fact that we find that many who got the radio as a holiday gift and are signed up in Dec., do not start their subscription til Jan. that means their subscription ends in Jan. and of course Jan. falls into our 1st quarter.)


    P.S. I not only think the 100,000 sub gain is possible it is way more likely then a 160,000 loss (or anything close to that kind of a loss). That kind of analysis gos way beyond being conservative at this point and gets into being ridiculous. I would even be willing to consider a estimate from him of a zero sum gain in the 1st quarter to be conservative (or at least semi reasonable) at this point but with the numbers that are out at this point, to even elude to anything like 160,000 loss is nuts. Like I said I believe even Mel felt that they would lose subs in the first quarter BACK when he gave his estimate (of 500,000 gain FOR THE YEAR) because lets face it the first two months of the year (which is the information he had at that time) were looking like they would lose some subs. Mel also knows that OEM sales increase as the year gos on and that the first quarter is generally the worst for OEMs also.
    Last edited by john; 04-06-2010 at 06:12 PM.

  6. #6
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Unless you have been on Mars for Spring Break . . .

    . . . . you by now know that something is brewing between Sirius XM and Liberty Media et al that will likely involve Liberty increasing their ownership interest in Siri at some level up to 49.9% . . . this speculation is supported by a recent filing with FTC/DOJ for early termination of the merger waiting period under the HSR Act . . .

    There is wide ranging speculation as to the mechanism by which the ownership stake will be increased . . . but very little in the way of factual support at this time.

    To get up to speed on this issue I recommend reading Relmor's latest news post; the link is provided at the bottom of this post.


    http://www.kingofalltrades.com/2010/04/06/11473.html

    The Hart-Scott-Rodino Act requires under certain circumstances that prospective acquirers of voting securities or assets apply for clearance from regulators. Requests for early termination or clearance are granted when the Federal Trade Commission and the antitrust division of the Department of Justice have determined that they won't take action during the waiting period.
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-07-2010 at 01:48 PM.

  7. #7
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    One small footnote I would add to Relmor's news post:

    Mel Karmazin was in fact awarded 120,000,000 options at $0.43 shortly after the Investment Agreement with Liberty was memorialized, the Shareholder Rights Plan (read Poison Pill) adopted and the Siri Board Seats filled-out by the preordained Liberty Media contingent . . . .

    Some might reasonably argue that this creates the appearance of a "quid pro quo"
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-06-2010 at 07:29 PM.

  8. #8
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    One more thought on the Liberty/Siri HSR early termination . .

    I am incredulous that Mel Karmazin would schlep Patrick Donnelly down to the NASDAQ Appeals Panel hearing on April 29th after having just approved some act that is dilutive to common equity . . . thus it is hard for me to imagine a debt-for-equity swap or straight-up direct-sale of authorized but unissued shares to Liberty . . .

  9. #9
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Something Fishy is going on right now!

    Crazy Mad Volume and up $0.07!

    I have no idea but I really do not believe it is technicals

    Something else is driving this volume and straight up price action




    edit: closing in on $0.95

    edit: $0.95 is in/push toward $0.96

    edit: there goes $0.96/volume 312mm!!

    edit: $0.94 at 550mm volume - OOH-FAH!
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 04-07-2010 at 04:38 PM.

  10. #10
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    It must be LLOYD buying new subs . . .

    MSNBC launches on Siri

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