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Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for March 29, 2010

  1. #1
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Siri Weekly Stock Thread for 3-29-10

    Couple of articles from thestreet.con

    1st is a revised rehash:

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10711...d-why-now.html

    2nd is a respin of the above per orders of Jimmy . . who thought the first sounded a little too positive:

    http://www.thestreet.com/_nasdaq/sto...FREE&cm_ite=NA

    Q: I wonder how Mr. Corty calculates a "25% chance that the shares have no value"
    A: He pulled it out of his ass

    But don't take my word for it:

    michael.corty@morningstar.com
    (312) 696-6228
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-29-2010 at 11:21 AM.

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    Michael Corty's Track Record

    From BusinessWeek . . . November 30, 2007:

    XM and Sirius announced their "merger of equals" in February. Each XM share would be exchanged for 4.6 Sirius shares.

    Competing head to head, each firm has its advantages. XM has more subscribers, with more than 9 million listeners expected by the end of the year according to Standard & Poor's equity analyst Tuna Amobi. (S&P, like BusinessWeek, is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Cos.) But it's growing slower than Sirius which is expected to add 2.4 million customers in 2007, for a total of more than 8 million. Both are expected to win more customers as satellite radios are installed in new cars, but here XM has made deals with more automakers, analysts say.

    Both companies are unprofitable, posting losses quarter after quarter. With a merger, they could reduce expenses for marketing, acquiring new subscribers and programming, says Morningstar (MORN) analyst Michael Corty.

    "Although a merger would benefit both companies, ultimately we don't think the deal will be allowed by the U.S. government," Corty wrote. The government won't "allow a scenario in which consumers have only one option for satellite radio service."

    michael.corty@morningstar.com
    (312) 696-6228
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-28-2010 at 03:05 PM.

  3. #3
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    Oops, I think Michael Corty forgot this . . .

    From February 20, 2007:

    "SUSIE GHARIB: Shares of Sirius and XM surged today as investors cheered the $13 billion merger deal between the two satellite radio companies. Sirius jumped 6 percent and XM soared over 10 percent. Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, who will be the chief executive of the combined company, said today he expects cost savings of between $5 and $6 billion from the deal. Analyst Michael Corty of Morningstar says that the two satellite rivals would save enormous sums by not having to compete with each other."

    michael.corty@morningstar.com
    (312) 696-6228
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    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-28-2010 at 03:08 PM.

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    Apps aplenty turn smartphones to radios

    By Hiawatha Bray
    Globe Staff / March 25, 2010

    These apps will turn your smartphone into a radio. If you’ve got a smartphone, you’ve got instant access to music, talk, news, and weather, even police radio calls. They are piped over your phone’s 3G network from sources all over the world. To tune in, you just need the right apps. There are plenty of worthy choices, from the free-of-charge to the umpty-ump a month.

    Why pay for radio? To get stuff you can’t get any other way. That’s the theory behind the Sirius XM satellite radio service. About 19 million people pay between $13 and $17 a month for access to more than 100 channels of music, news, and chat, along with exclusive programs from the likes of Oprah Winfrey and Howard Stern.

    Most people listen in their cars, but Sirius XM offers a listening app for BlackBerries and Apple iPhones. Both are available at siriusxm.com, where you can obtain a free seven-day trial of the service. Subscriptions cost $12.95 a month, or $2.99 for subscribers to the satellite version. The network’s biggest ratings draw, Stern, is unavailable on the smartphone version; also unavailable are live broadcasts of pro football and baseball games. But that leaves plenty of appealing stuff, like Bob Dylan’s Theme Time Radio Hour and Metropolitan Opera Radio.

    By the way, many AT&T smartphones come with a satellite radio app from MobiTV Inc. that delivers two dozen XM stations for $8.99 a month. It’s a lousy deal. Skip it.

    Still, with my transistor radio I only paid for batteries; the listening was free. Sure enough, plenty of listening options are free or nearly so. About 40 million of us listen to Pandora, the excellent music service that generates custom music channels. Tell it that you like Beyonce, and that’s what you get, along with other artists in the same vein. Pandora apps are now available for nearly every major smartphone at pandora.com.

    Pandora sells little banner ads that appear on screen. As a result, the service is free —sort of. You can listen for 40 hours per month without paying a dime. After that, you shell out $36 for a year’s worth of premium, ad-free service, or the music stops.

    But not really. You could just switch to some other Pandora-like service. Slacker.com comes to mind. Available for desktops and most smartphones, Slacker doesn’t do quite as good a job of selecting the best tunes. But the listening is limitless. There’s a $4-per-month version that eliminates ads and serves up complete song lyrics, but are Britney’s exact words really that important?

    Sometimes you want traditional radio broadcasts, complete with traffic, weather, home improvement ads, and smirking shock jocks. A smartphone can pull in these stations with apps like WunderRadio. This app uses your phone’s GPS system to figure out its location, then displays a list of local radio stations. Just click to listen. For out-of-town listening, you can search out audio streams for thousands of US stations and broadcasters in Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Australia. There’s even a way to stream Chicago police radio calls and air traffic control chatter from New York’s Kennedy Airport for folks who like that sort of thing. WunderRadio costs $6.99 for iPhones, $10 for the BlackBerry, and $14.95 for Windows Mobile devices. It’s available at wunderradio.com.

    Another good choice is ooTunes, a $4.99 iTunes-only app with a slick little feature — it automatically records whatever you’re listening to. You can’t copy the recordings to another device, so it’s useless for illicit file sharing. But you can program it to capture a favorite radio show when you’re not around. Trouble is, you must leave the ooTunes app running at all times to do this, because Apple won’t let two or more iPhone apps run at once. Indeed, this is generally a problem with iPhone music apps. Switch to some other task, and the music stops. But ooTunes has a workaround that lets you stream some radio stations through the phone’s Web browser. It’s clunky but it works, sometimes. You can find ooTunes at Apple’s online iTunes store.

    The BlackBerry-only Nobex Radio Companion can be found at nobexrc.com. It includes an index to hundreds of US stations, which you can add to a personal playlist for instant listening.

    With most pop stations, you can get the lyrics of the current song. On the other hand, there’s no feature for recording the audio stream.

    But then, Nobex has the best feature of all. It’s free, thanks to on-screen advertising. Yes, there’s an available $3.99 subscription package, for listening to stations outside the United States, but when it comes to saving money, I’m an isolationist.

    Hiawatha Bray can be reached at bray@globe.com.

  5. #5
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    Q1 Subs?

    Assuming 12mm SAAR . . . anyone care to take a stab at net ads/losses for Q1?

    Given:

    Penetration Rate 60%
    Conversion Rate: 46.4%
    Self-Pay Average Monthly Churn Rate: 2%
    Self-Pay Subscribers: Say 15,800,000 (R)

    Additional Considerations:

    Retail Deactivations for 3 Mos Ended 12/31/09: 200,000 (R)
    Rental Additions for 3 Mos Ended 12/31/09: 15,000 (R)

    Anybody??
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-29-2010 at 12:34 PM.

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    Stern's Pay (Archive)

    A question that often comes up on these boards:

    "SIRIUS estimates that Stern only would need to generate approximately 1 million subscribers in order to cover the costs of the deal. Total production and operating costs for the Stern show, including compensation of the show cast and staff, overhead, construction costs for a dedicated studio, and a budget for the development of additional programming and marketing concepts, is estimated to be approximately $100 million per year."

  7. #7
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    Edmunds 12.4mm SAAR

    Edmunds.com Forecasts March Auto Sales; Projects 12.4 Million SAAR and Predicts 80 Percent Boost in Toyota Sales

    SANTA MONICA, Calif. — March 25, 2010 — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1,119,700 units, a 30.9 percent increase from March 2009 and a 43.9 percent increase from February 2010, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.

    Edmunds.com analysts predict that March's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 12.4 million, up from 10.3 million in February 2010.

    "Although this SAAR sounds promising, it's too early to wave the flag and say that the economy has turned the corner," Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl told AutoObserver.com. "Incentives drove sales this month, but those were defensive moves in response to Toyota stepping up incentives and are unlikely to last because inventories are simply not high enough to justify them in the long term."

    March 2010 had 26 selling days, one more than last March 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 25.9 percent from March 2009.

    Link:

    http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/pr...6/article.html

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    JD Power 11.7mm

    Industry Outlook

    Despite ongoing issues with unemployment, consumer spending has been stronger than expected during the first two months of the year and the automotive market is continuing to improve. J.D. Power and Associates' 2010 forecast remains at 11.7 million units for total sales and 9.6 million units for retail sales.

    "Due to improving economic conditions, downside risk appears to be subsiding," said Schuster. "However, the market remains very dynamic, and it will be critical for sales momentum to be sustained as the market heads into the spring selling season."

    Link:

    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...-88544687.html

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    Well hopefully car sales will continue at this 12.4 rate or higher for the rest of the year. This past month has obviously been greatly helped by all the deals being offered by Toyota and others.

    Michael Corty is obviously someone who has an agenda. Amazing that they can get away with spouting this kind of nonsense.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 03-29-2010 at 12:11 PM.

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    bump thread to top

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