Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 18

Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for March 22, 2010

  1. #1
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for March 22, 2010

    Mar 23, 2010 08:58 ET

    TrueCar Forecasts March Auto Sales and Incentives Spending

    Race for the Top Becomes Interesting as Toyota Makes Strong Return

    SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - March 23, 2010) - TrueCar.com (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that March 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. is expected to be 1,021,465 units, a jump of nearly 31% from February 2010 and more than 19% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). March's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.3 million new car sales.

    According to the experts at TrueCar.com, industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,800 in March, up 3.2% from February 2010 but down 9.7% from this time last year.

    full article with charts can be viewed at:
    http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...ng-1136121.htm

  2. #2
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Mar 23, 2010 08:58 ET

    TrueCar Forecasts March Auto Sales and Incentives Spending

    Race for the Top Becomes Interesting as Toyota Makes Strong Return

    SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - March 23, 2010) - TrueCar.com (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that March 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. is expected to be 1,021,465 units, a jump of nearly 31% from February 2010 and more than 19% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). March's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.3 million new car sales.

    According to the experts at TrueCar.com, industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,800 in March, up 3.2% from February 2010 but down 9.7% from this time last year.

    full article with charts can be viewed at:
    http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...ng-1136121.htm
    I'm not sure if that's good news or bad? I had seen SAAR projected at like 13.2, or at least I thought I did.

  3. #3
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I'm not sure if that's good news or bad? I had seen SAAR projected at like 13.2, or at least I thought I did.
    Hi SL

    Anything above the 10.8mm benchmark should be considered good news . . I have seen the other figures as well . . . kind of a potpourri of good-better-best if you will

    What is particularly compelling in this report, however, is the strength of the luxury market . . . where the segmented take-rate has always been consistently/significantly higher than the overall, unsegmented, take-rate across all price-points.

    Spence/Tyler is working on an article now (to be published shortly) which will analyze the impact of favorable weighting to the luxury segment and correlation to a higher take-rate as well as the cost offsets of higher chip set subsidies that might be expected due to the current surge in sales volume . . .

    SRK

  4. #4
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Hey, Wonderdich Securities got it right this time!

    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I'm not sure if that's good news or bad? I had seen SAAR projected at like 13.2, or at least I thought I did.
    "Sirius XM (SIRI) rose by 3 cents, or 3.8%, to 89 cents in the premarket session after Wunderlich Securities said the recent confusing stock action sparked by differing estimates for March auto sales actually belies good news. The firm said that what 
matters long term for Sirius XM is the sustainable run rate for U.S. vehicle 
sales rather than monthly aberrations. The 50-day average daily volume for Sirius XM is 107.96 million, according to the Nasdaq. More than 237 million shares changed hands Monday."

    Come-on now, everybody sing along with me . . . you know the tune . . . in belated honor of St Paddy's Day. . . here we go (me-me-me):

    H-A-Double R-I, G-A-N spells HOOLIGAN, HOOLIGAN . . .

  5. #5
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Yes Sirius Roadkill, but what gets me is when the month is good they say this crap: "The firm said that what 
matters long term for Sirius XM is the sustainable run rate for U.S. vehicle 
sales rather than monthly aberrations." But when the month shows terrible numbers they say; Ho from this month we see a auto sales decline this month as bad for SIRIXM.


    The point here is I look at the good and the bad the same way. If this month is as good as they are saying it will be and looks like it will be then you cannot detracked from the fact that SIRIXM will actually gain subscribers in a quarter that I think Mel thought they would lose subscribers when he said they would get 500,000 subs this year. I believe that will almost force them to raise their projected sub numbers for the year. Facts are facts and with 880,000 in sales so far they are at almost a break even rate (at a all-in churn of 2.5%) just on OEM sales because that 2.5% incluldes retail losses but they will have at least some retail gain also this quarter. Now after seeing the 880,000 number, if they are able to almost double that (that 880,000 was for the first 11 selling days (Mon.- Fri.) then I see no reason they dont show around 100,000 new adds, of course that all depends on how bad the 1st quarter churn is this time (1st quarter churn has always been the worst churn quarter of all 4).
    Last edited by john; 03-25-2010 at 03:34 PM.

  6. #6
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Yes Sirius Roadkill, but what gets me is when the month is good they say this crap: "The firm said that what 
matters long term for Sirius XM is the sustainable run rate for U.S. vehicle 
sales rather than monthly aberrations." But when the month shows terrible numbers they say; Ho from this month we see a auto sales decline this month as bad for SIRIXM.
    Yes john, I agree with you . . . Matthew Hooligan of Wonderdich Securities likes to speak out of both sides of his mouth. When the SAAR is reported to be down, Hooligan rushes to revise his analysis (read "Downgrade" - in spite of what he calls it). When the SAAR is reported to be up, Hooligan refers to it as an unimportant "aberration" and conveniently suffers from a case of amnesia.

  7. #7
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Barton Crooked of Lizard Capital Chimes-In

    Looks like all the matchstick men are checking-in on Siri:

    By Tiernan Ray
    Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) shares rose steadily throughout this morning and are now surrendering some of their gains, though the stock is still up a penny, at about 89 cents, on rumors that Lazard Capital Markets made some bullish comments on the stock.

    That’s kind of true, but not entirely.

    Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett this afternoon says his outlook on Sirius is still a “Buy,” but he has no new insights on the stock this week, according to a phone call I had with him this afternoon.

    Barton has a $1.35 price target on the stock, and reiterated to me that he sees the company’s revenue rising to $4 billion in 2015, with $1 billion in free cash flow by then and a little more than that in Ebitda, up from $2.5 billion in revenue last year and $423 million in Ebitda.

    “I think they’re on a good trajectory, they’re deleveraging, and people haven’t looked at the stock in awhile, and it’s time to do so,” Crockett told me.

    Crockett has been hosting meetings between Sirius and investors this week, but he says there’ve been no significant anecdotes nor forecasts to report.

    Correction: An earlier version of this post contained a typo listing Crockett’s price target on Sirius at $35; that would be quite a return, but I’m afraid Crockett’s actual price target is $1.35. Still, a more than 30% gain if that does happen. My apologies for any confusion caused by the error.


    Good or bad, I wouldn't trust any of these guys . . . they are professional con-men . . . go back and read some of Barton Crooked's research from November/December 2008 and you will see what I mean!

    For example, we are still waiting for Matthew Hooligan to take ownership of his own research and revise his price target to $1.85 . . . . I mean, hey, he wasn't calling the February SAAR an "aberration" . . . so why should the March SAAR be . . . can't have it both ways Hooligan.

    You may just want to drop coverage now and salvage your career Hooligan. As you are by now aware, you will be watched more closely on this equity than any other you or your firm has ever covered.
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-26-2010 at 11:21 AM.

  8. #8
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    NASDAQ Sets SIRIUS XM Hearing for April 29, 2010

    press release
    March 26, 2010, 8:00 a.m. EDT

    NASDAQ Sets SIRIUS XM Hearing for April 29, 2010
    Hearing Stays All Action by NASDAQ

    NEW YORK, March 26, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. today announced that The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC ("NASDAQ") has scheduled a hearing on April 29, 2010, at which the Company will be afforded the opportunity to request continued listing on The NASDAQ Global Select Market pending its return to compliance with NASDAQ's $1.00 per share bid price requirement.

    The hearing before a NASDAQ Listing Qualifications Panel (the "Panel") stays all action by NASDAQ. Under NASDAQ's current Listing Rules, the Panel may grant the Company up to an additional 180 days from the date of the staff's most recent notification of non-compliance, or through September 13, 2010, to comply with the NASDAQ bid price requirement. The Company does not expect to receive a written decision of the Panel for up to 45 days following the hearing.

    The Company intends to take all necessary steps to maintain the listing of its common stock on The NASDAQ Global Select Market. The Company's stockholders have granted the Company's board of directors the discretion to effect a reverse stock split, which would bring the Company into compliance with the NASDAQ bid price requirement. While the authority granted to the board expires on June 30, 2010, the Company will seek approval from stockholders at its upcoming annual meeting to extend that authority through June 30, 2011. The board of directors intends to effect the reverse stock split only if it determines the action to be in the best interests of stockholders.


    Woo-Boy . . I'm really holding my breath on this one! I hear the typewriter keys klinking away over at thestreet.con!

  9. #9
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Oops, Here's thestreet.con now. Right on time!

    I wonder what Jimmy's got up his sleeve this time . . . Here's Part 1

    Sirius XM's Rebound: Why Now?
    By Andrea Tse 03/25/10 - 05:11 PM EDT

    SIRI UPNEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Analysts are conflicted about their views on Sirius XM(SIRI), with some skeptical about the company's soundness as a stock investment -- and others wholeheartedly confident of its financial strength.

    BGB Securities analyst Murray Arenson, for example, likes the company. "I think it's growing and I think the outlook is strong. You've got a very larger subscriber base growing" and "a rebound at this stage of the game on auto sales."

    Arenson adds that though the prevailing view seems to be that Sirius star Howard Stern and Sirius will work out an agreement as his current contract expires at the end of 2010, "I think Sirius will be financially okay" regardless of the outcome. "Sirius is in a strong place. It is a healthy, vibrant company."
    Sirius XM stock finished Thursday's trading session down 0.9% to 87 cents. Sirius XM stock had risen by 2.8% to 91 cents in midday trading Thursday, maintaining a four-day upward trend for the stock. Volumes of Sirius XM stock being traded have reached 219.a million Thursday, compared with the three-month average trading volume of 97.4 million.

    What's in store for SIRI if it's delisted by the Nasdaq?
    Sirius XM stock had finished Monday's trading session up about 4% to 86 cents after sliding 3.1% to 80 cents Monday morning. Many market observers believe the rise in volume had much to do with the addition of Sirius XM to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index, effective at the market open Monday.
    Arenson says this is probably one good reason why the stock shot up that day, "but may not explain it all," given that the stock has been volatile with many moving pieces, including its recent Nasdaq delisting notice and the company's application to get an extension.

    "I think they've got a strong argument," to get an extension, Arenson says. On March 17, Sirius announced that it received a letter from the NASDAQ stating that the company has not regained compliance with the $1 minimum; Sirius XM said that it would ask for continued listing on the NASDAQ pending its return to compliance, while noting that its equity capitalization is greater than about 92% of the companies listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market.

    BGB Securities' analyst, like many others, have a positive take on Sirius XM stock. But not everyone agrees with it. In fact, Morningstar analyst Michael Corty on March 22 came out with a note saying "we've changed our uncertainty rating for Sirius XM to extreme from very high. The outlook for Sirius' annual cash flows remains very difficult to forecast with precision."

  10. #10
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Jimmy's Next Big Scam Part 2 - thestreet.con

    Corty's concerns in part stemmed from the company's competition with the widely free terrestrial radio and his expectation of "emerging competition for audio service in vehicles."

    Corty also said he doesn't like the fact that the company has a heavy debt load of $3.1 billion: "While its recent debt issuance of $800 million allowed Sirius to extend some of its maturities, the company will still need to access the credit markets in the future."

    If Sirius XM runs into problems when it's more difficult to tap into credit, Corty noted, "shareholders could be severely diluted again." Morningstar's current valuation is based on 6.5 billion shares outstanding, assuming Liberty Media changes its preferred shares to common shares.

    "Sirius XM Radio lacks an economic moat as terrestrial radio is a substitute product widely available for free, and emerging alternatives for audio content will pose additional competition for the company," Corty writes.

    -- Reported by Andrea Tse in New York

    Yeesh, I think this guy Corty-Sell-Shorty lacks an "intellectual moat"
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-26-2010 at 11:51 AM.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •