Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 43

Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for 3-1-10

  1. #1
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for 3-1-10

    Every so often I read a post at another site that deserves repeating . . . such is the case with a classic Relmor rant appearing at the KOAT site on 2-28-10. This Relmor-Rant is a classic three-parter and is a good history lesson for those who bought-in after the Liberty rescue.

    Whether you agree with him or not, you must respect the fact that Relmor calls it the way he sees it . . . there is no sugar-coating here and a little rough language . . . the link is provided at the end of Part 3

    Here is Part 1:

    Relmor responding to the speculation of Siri buying-back the Preferred Shares from Liberty:

    Its not happening. There is no way Sirius would convince Liberty to do that. Its a pipe dream. When you steal 400 dollars in value, for instance, you wouldnt sell it back for 100 dollars. Sure you made a 100, but you lost 300 dollars. So if Sirius XM wants to receive the percentage of the company back,they would have pay even now future value, forget current value. No asset sirius xm has, other than more ownership, ironically, to sell anyone. In the future they could be selling leased band width, possible lease or sell content, or some type of distrubution deal, but usually people or companies dont pay for services with ownership. Thats what Sirius did to get to this point. They basically whored themselves out, ownership wise, to get money to move forward. It almost worked. Almost.
    FCC and the economy sealed the deal on that. Banks too. Dont blame Ergin, or any other fantasy theory from Mel or anyone else.

    If Sirius could have gotten out of 2009 with full ownership, they would never have needed to whore itself out again. They couldnt do it however, as Sirius XM as a privately owned company, in media, with a huge future, just has way too many enemies, with the siutation 2009 presented. It was a no brainer for the cocksukcing banks and their insidious agents of evil to play this how it did. The reward was complete control of Sirius XM.
    "Luckily", say that dripping with sarcasm, Liberty stepped in and removed that option of 100 percent take over, so ya, i guess you can say we should be somewhat greatful, we are still in the game. This is not a rant against LIberty, however, so I continue...
    The key to making sirius obtain new money, was the May bank debt, period. Feb was solvable, if May was extended. Then you till Dec. to get a real loan, like they did, twice in 2009. Yes the banks caused this 100 percent. Look at what a killng they made on this whole deal from the merger on. Plus they got all their cash due in 2009 fro Sirius XM.

    I want someone to tell me, if feb was removed, and the bank debt extended, Sirius would not have been about to qualify for money to remove Dec bonds, if COH wasnt enough. Or that a realistic equity price could have been reached for a debt for equity swap at that point. Some of the December debt due would definately have been able to be removed with some shares for sure.

    Ergin couldnt gain any control over the largest debt due in 2009, the bank debt, the banks REFUSED to extend.

  2. #2
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Relmor Rant Part 2

    Relmor continues . . .

    Mel when came out and was finally ready for him to talk about that time period, like it was a bad dream of a distant memory for him, well Mel it was a nightmare for us, so you can fuk off buddy. Love Mel dont get me wrong, but I know when my chain is being jerked around, and their little "explanation" of what happened was cute, and just clever enough for people with logical brains to even buy. But not me, I dont buy bs served on a plate like that. If Mel wasnt willing to share details, anything, or input, a vote, or whatever with his owners, than i would not believe anythign he says on that subject. He cant blame the banks, that would be suicide and he knows it. Ergin is the perfect villian, and what does ergin care, he made a killing on the deal.
    Heres who made a killing on ur money.....
    Liberty
    Ergin
    All banks involved
    All bondholders who bought low.
    Convertible bondholders (OMG did they)
    Sirius XM the company, as they were allowed to merge.
    All insider, with low options
    Malone, and Maffei personally

    Who Lost:
    You.

    Whos now starting to win...
    You
    Finally.


    SRK Note . . . only thing I would add here is lets name names like GOLDMAN SACHS (Convertible Bond Holder of course before handing-off to Ergen); also, Mel didn't make-out so bad either with the new boatload of $0.43 options (120,000,000 of them but who's counting) that were given to him by the new Board Members including Liberty (I swear ya just can't make this stuff up).

    http://247wallst.com/2009/07/01/karm...-options-siri/
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-28-2010 at 10:46 PM.

  3. #3
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882

    Relmor Rant Part 3

    And finally . . .

    So bascially you can talk evaluation, and this and that, and what fair value is, but in the end, we are worth well over $2 a share, everyone knows this, and the media is trying its best to make us think we arent. Whatever happens this week, long term they cant change that. We know Mel has our back on the r/s now, and the fear to own this equity at these levels should be minimal long term.

    So basically, to end, I am not impressed with 1.02 a share. This is still as insulting at .12 cents to me. They need to keep trying. This is barely recovering from BK levels still.


    Now here is the link as promised:

    http://kingofalltrades.com/forum/vie...t=419&start=20

    P.S. Note to Relmor . . if you do not wish to have your comments repeated here please let me know and I will delete the posts.

  4. #4
    just sirius is offline
    Mentor
    just sirius's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2008 Location: San Antonio Posts: 1,180
    SRK

    Read that earlier...classice Relmor2003! He has not been that fired up in quite some time.

    Let's have a great week ahead!

    BTW SRK...did you read the thread at KOAT dealing with the debt. Pretty interestng. Cos, ASM, Relmor, and a newbie Steiny have been discussing the companies debt. Cos seems to believe that SiriusXM is fixing to take out
    500M in debt due in 2013...

    JS
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  5. #5
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    SRK

    Read that earlier...classice Relmor2003! He has not been that fired up in quite some time.

    Let's have a great week ahead!

    BTW SRK...did you read the thread at KOAT dealing with the debt. Pretty interestng. Cos, ASM, Relmor, and a newbie Steiny have been discussing the companies debt. Cos seems to believe that SiriusXM is fixing to take out
    500M in debt due in 2013...

    JS
    JS . . haven't read the debt-thread yet; will have to take a look . . . am curious where the cash to do that will come from.

    Next 3 days will be fun to watch!

    Yes, classic Relmor2003 . . . it was like being back at Seeking Alpha in October 2008!!
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 02-28-2010 at 11:01 PM.

  6. #6
    Big Ben is offline
    Senior Member
    Big Ben's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448

    5% premarket does not bode well when you have a itchy trigger finger.

    Relmor rant pretty interesting, same bs I have been saying since I also know when someone is pulling my chain. Two years ago, Mel knew the deal and the pain coming and he walked us to the wood shed, 1.60ish a share, I personally rode all of the bs info into the flames.

    Whats the scoop today? I am taking a beating on all of my positions, SIRI, FAZ, FXP. I saw China did pretty well overnight, banks leading, this always causes pain for FXP, should be a nice entry point.

    Good luck
    Big Ben

  7. #7
    SiriuslyLong is offline
    Guru
    SiriuslyLong's Avatar
    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ben View Post
    Relmor rant pretty interesting, same bs I have been saying since I also know when someone is pulling my chain. Two years ago, Mel knew the deal and the pain coming and he walked us to the wood shed, 1.60ish a share, I personally rode all of the bs info into the flames.

    Whats the scoop today? I am taking a beating on all of my positions, SIRI, FAZ, FXP. I saw China did pretty well overnight, banks leading, this always causes pain for FXP, should be a nice entry point.

    Good luck
    Big Ben
    The scoop is that $1.00 threshold will likely be compromised - too many haters. S&P can increase a price target from $1 to $1.50 and get ignored, but Wunderlich can go from "buy" to "hold" and the market responds immediately. How's it work out that way?

    Anyway, 2 hours, 10 minutes left with tremendous volume. Anything can happen.

  8. #8
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    it's ok . . . it really doesn't matter . . . NASDAQ will grant the extension and $1 will be achieved organically well before the new 6 month window expires . .

    Did you know Bernie Madoff once sat on the Board for the NASDAQ?

    Now what does that tell you about corporate politics?

    The trades we are seeing today mean nothing in the grand scheme of things

  9. #9
    proactiv is offline
    Enthusiast
    proactiv's Avatar
    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Villa Rica, GA Posts: 136

    Barrington’s Jim Goss Raises Sirius XM (SIRI) Price Target

    Jim Goss, Barrington Research Associates

    In a research note issued on the heels of Sirius XM’s (Nasdaq: SIRI) Q4 earnings report, Jim Goss of Barrington Research remains bullish on the Satellite Radio provider. Maintaining his OUTPERFORM rating on shares of Sirius XM, the analyst upgraded his target price from $1.10 to $1.25, citing “positive developments that include greater recognition of its improving fundamentals on the part of both equity and fixed income observers.”

    In the report, Mr. Goss discusses Sirius XM’s Q4 and full year metrics, noting that the reported results “largely met or exceeded expectations.” He points to the reported full-year 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $463 million as being important and “above management’s guidance and topping our adjusted and above-range estimate of $449 million.” Mr. Goss is now forecasting $620 million in EBITDA for 2010, which is above Sirius XM management’s guidance of $550 million. The analyst is projecting 19.3 million subscribers for year-end 2010, using an ARPU assumption of $10.73 and a SAC assumption of $63.

    While noting that the company had pre-announced Q4 subscribers of 257,028 as well as the conversion rate of promotional customers, Mr, Goss saw more color being provided in the earnings release and during the conference call. While Sirius XM’s 18.8 million subscriber count is shy of the over 19 million subscribers the company had in 2008, Goss says that “the momentum seems to have decidedly shifted in Sirius’ favor, due primarily to improvements in the outlook for the auto sector.” Mr. Goss explains, “The average SAAR for auto sales in the fourth quarter was 10.9 million, according to AutoData. Management stated on the call that they feel that the level of auto sales in the fourth quarter is sustainable for the upcoming year.” While he notes that this not comparable to OEM sales during the middle of the last decade, he says that it is a “welcome improvement” compared to earlier last year. Goss sees penetration rates continuing to improve in 2010, projecting a 60-62% range.

    Mr. Goss discussed CEO Mel Karmazin’s comments during the conference call. “CEO Mel Karmazin was emphatic in indicating that a reverse stock split is essentially off-the-table…”, says Goss. He also noted management’s citing of statistics which show that Sirius XM in monetizing it’s subscriber base more effectively than terrestrial and internet radio. While Mr. Goss says that SIRI “has continuing upside and should be able to create financial metrics that should continue to support the stock”, he also noted that “it would be unrealistic to think in terms of a repeat of the type of catch up phase of stock performance that the stock has been able to achieve over the past year.”

  10. #10
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
    Mentor
    Sirius Roadkill's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,882
    What we have learned about the "analysts" (and I use that term loosely), is that they are little more than "tools" for the investment banking arms or capital markets divisions of the parent companies by whom they are employed . . . simply trying to influence market direction to the benefit of their clients or for the benefit of the parent company's own hedging transactions (read Goldman Sachs)

    So good or bad . . . they must all be taken with a grain of salt!

    DYODD
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 03-01-2010 at 03:42 PM.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •