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Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 1/25/10

  1. #21
    candleman is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina Posts: 1,511
    81 and a half cents for the close today.

    It feels good to own Sirius today. I can't wait to see what Friday has in store for us!

    Congratulations to everyone who has been holding and waiting for this uptrend.

  2. #22
    Havakasha is offline
    It definitely feels real good right now. Things are really looking up for the future as well. Going to be interesting to see what happens in the near and long term.
    I quess Big Ben wont be appearing here too soon.

  3. #23
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    It definitely feels real good right now. Things are really looking up for the future as well. Going to be interesting to see what happens in the near and long term.
    I quess Big Ben wont be appearing here too soon.
    Yeah, he's too busy making a killing on FAZ. Then again he can reappear trying to convince everyone to sell, take profit and suggest a re-entry point for when SIRI retraces.

    SIRI really has some legs due to a series of fortunate events. A couple more would rock.

    I'm no expert on stocks, but I think it is widely accepted that SIRI has too many shares outstanding. Bring on some more coverage, good results and the R/S. Then the race is really on.

  4. #24
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Man - I hope that guy is day trading or swing trading FAZ like you are supposed too. Like I said before most people don't understand leverged ETFs and how their values are derived from options, swaps, futures, etc. With options decay, it kills you going when the market goes sideways. Example, FAZ supposedly is 3X on a daily basis in the opposite direction of RIFIN. However, when the vix is low, you get less oomph up in FAZ when RIFIN goes down or sideways, then when volatility is high. This makes it lose correlation to the underlying over time.

    So...
    Looking at the last sideways movement of RIFIN using a weekly chart, the open from the beginning of Sept was 768.03, today it is at 759.83 for a loss of -1.07%.

    Now, if you wanted to be short financials, and wanted 3X, you could actually short IYF, but just do 3 times the amount. During this period, the change was minute, so your gain would be 0.58% times 3 or 1.74% if you shorted 3X the amount of money (it's a little off since IYF isn't truly RIFIN).

    FAZ on the other hand, while trying to replicate 3X daily over a long period of time becomes uncorrelated to that ratio over time... thus, during that same period it opened at 23.50, and closed at 19.51 today... so did FAZ gain 3X and print a 3.21% gain (1.07% times 3)? Nope, it lost actually, while RIFIN is down -1.07%, during that same period and FAZ is not only not up 3.21%, but actually down -16.98%.

    Now with a rapid decline in price in RIFIN and a rise in volatility, you can make that up, but not on a slow decline in price.

    So, if you guys are planning on going short, go short for real, don't use FAZ and the like to do it, unless you know the risks and read volatility, or do the alternative, day or swing trade them. In which case, you can do likewise with FAS or going short FAZ depending on the direction of the day or swing.

    I know I posted this crap before, just don't want anyone thinking these leverged ETF's are for holding for 2 weeks or more. You'll lose the price correlation to the underlying, and then it's just luck whether you are right or not, unless you can get a feel for volatility as well and how it correlates to the underlying, but when plotted, there isn't an easily recognizable correlation. If you think the market is turning down, and want to dollar cost average going short, just go short on a regular ETF. As you can see, if you went short IYF back in Sept waiting for a downturn, you'd be up today, but not down like FAZ.
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 01-29-2010 at 05:03 AM. Reason: clear it up
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  5. #25
    Big Ben is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448
    How easily the masses are fooled. I have to check some charts to explain my dead money comment, and yes Shawshank it was dead money. Good for everyone holding, I am not a hater but a realist. The recent pop only makes me want to convince you the buy and holders to protect your recent gains, (three days worth?) even more. If I have to fall on the sword and be the cause of the money to go from dead to alive again, then so be it. Be back with some info and food for thought. Dr Dave, why is FAZ so bad..because of the 3x leverage? or what? Can you elaborate on this?

    Big Ben, the catalyst, your welcome all! Even though all of the gains will most likely go unrealized...atleast you can feel wealthier for while...ha ha.

  6. #26
    Havakasha is offline
    "Even though the gains will likely go unrealized..."
    Sounds like a hater to me.
    One of these days your quesses just might be correct.

  7. #27
    Big Ben is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 448
    Let me explain dead money. Pull up a one year chart with the volume on the bottom. Feb 12th –March 18th was what you call a winner, .06-.37…GOAL! High volume, Malone’s loan saved the day. Thank you! March 18th-August 4th another range .37-.54 hot stock, high volume, lots of short term money to be made. Early August Siri cracked the .5 mark and didn’t look back, hooray. Volume is still solid. I sold 10k at .7696 on August 21, 9:34 am, this ended up being very nice sell. Septembers range was .6-.7 on good volume. Oct is where the money dies. Oct, Nov, Dec, half Jan, the range is .55-.65 the volume is gone and the moves become slow and rounded, not sharp. It’s pretty clear on the graph. Since Tuesday everything has changed, the volume is back, the upgrades are nice but unfortunately for Siri the overall markets were weak on the days when siri popped. I believe this has happened more than just a few times with SIRI. If the overall markets would have been cruising the spike could have been double. Plenty of stocks get upgrades and price targets get laid out and stocks run right up to the number, but not SIRI. I truly believe there is serious bullshit that goes on behind the scenes that does not allow this stock to trade on fundamentals or anything not subjective. I believe the stock should be worth 1-1.25 no questions, but I am also willing to wait to for the manipulation to stop before picking off shares. I would not be unhappy with paying 10 thousand clams for 10 thousand shares, especially if the shanagins are over.

    The reverse split is still the game changer, pray every night this stock can hold the 10 day period if it hits the dollar menu. Good luck tomorrow. Hopefully I can get some credibility back considering I picked the bottom and the top, so far I am out .7696-.82ish, not too bad.

    Big Ben

  8. #28
    candleman is offline
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    We're at 85 cents in premarket this morning. What a great way to start the day!

  9. #29
    proactiv is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Villa Rica, GA Posts: 136
    It's exciting to be within fifteen cents of a buck..

  10. #30
    Havakasha is offline
    Ben you have to admit you didnt see this jump of the last several days coming. Correct?
    Because you admitted you sold your last lot of 2500 shares at .6725.
    Correct?
    With the 4th quarter results coming dont you think that was an OBVIOUS mistake?
    Even though there were plenty of opportunities to make money trading SXM
    you have to admit that buying from .6 and holding till now has been a smart strategy?

    Have to agree the stock is worth more then it is at right now.
    Good luck with your future trades.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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