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Thread: Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 01-04-10

  1. #21
    Hopeful is offline
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    Very good words from Maffei, VERY mild winter so far, quiet dry so far How are you doing?
    Last edited by Hopeful; 01-07-2010 at 10:51 AM.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    http://www.benningtonbanner.com/ci_1...ce=most_viewed

    Good Morning

    Interesting article concerning Howard Stern and his upcoming
    contract negotiations.

    My opinion Stern will be signed for considerably less this time around.
    Possibly with reduced hours, later starting times. Stern continues
    to emphasize his unhappiness on his early bird hours.

    Initialy when Stern went to Sirius he brought along his loyal following.
    Other than the occasional article, he is seldom mentioned, unlike his
    highly visible days at terrestrial radio.

    On the other hand Sirius has continued to grow to be much more
    than just Howards home. With the wide variety of music stations,
    an array of talk, news, advice and sports, Howard 101
    became for me, just one of many options on my radio. The last
    several weeks I have been doing more driving and have had
    more of an opportunity to listen to Sirius. When I'm not talking I like to listen
    to talking. The Rosie show as well as the Playboy station have
    both been unexpectedly good. So when he is off the air with his
    numerious vacs, no problem. Lots more to listen to.
    Because of my job I have had the opportunity to question my customers
    about their Sirius radio as well as their listening preferences. Other
    than a few, most mentioned other stations as to why they love
    their Sirius. So if in my little corner of the world, my informal surveying,
    why can't the same be done across the states? And take that to
    the negotiations.

    My ramblings this Wednesday morn.

    Enjoy this beautiful day,

    Julie


    First to you julie, I have always believed Stern will not retire any time to soon, his ego is way to big for that. If that is the case then he really has nowhere else to go and get what SIRIXM gave him or even anything close to it. Lets face facts here, Stern took advandge of a position SIRI was in at the time, that time has now changed and Stern and Mel know this. I also think he will get much less then before. For those that want to run a comparison then just go back to what Stern was getting before SIRI hired Stern. Of course then you have to also add in the cost of his channels lets remember much of that 500 million (100 million per year plus 234 million in stock) went to building and producing the 2 channels with his name on them. Fact is I think Stern will not only stay for less but will get some kind of face saving option like less total hours or moving the time forward or doing the show from his home. Stern also is no dummy he knows that he could retire but still keep the channels with his name going and reap major money for basically doing nothing (when compared to before) plus he will get the added bonus of not burning a bridge so if he likes he could return very easy without looking like he made a mistake.



    Havakasha, I have made a projection long ago of the number of subscribers stern was responsible for bring to SIRI, it was 2.2 million. The facts were there to back that number up. The first one is the jump in the number of subscribers that SIRI had after the news came out about Stern going to SIRI. There is no other way to show any other reason for the jump in subscribers, after taking out any increase of OEM penitration, it still falls way short of SIRI jumping up to 1 million subs in a quarter compared to what they got in quarters before biggest increase was 300,000 until Stern came in. Also there was a clear fan base talked about if you were reading much of SIRI news back then. Many including Mel talked about at least 2.6 of the 11 million listeners being very big vans, to the fact that they have spent more on Stern products in a year then the cost of a subcribtion. Taking those numbers all together and there in no way that stern got less then 2.2 million people to come to SIRI and may be as many as 3.2.


    doclogic, now after saying what I have said above I will also agree with you on that, just because Stern was responsible for getting at least 2.2 million subscribers, it does not mean more then 500,000 will be lost if he leaves. I would also like to say that if Stern continues his other channels without him on them then that loss would most likely be alot less.



    The basic fact is Stern will get less because the same situation in which contracts are being talked about are no where the same, the ball is now not in Sterns court it is in SIRIXM's court. Stern options have been basically reduced to retiring or working for SIRIXM that was not the case before.


    toxdoc, I know you would like to say he has plenty of other options but really his own pod cased for what was discussed before for a dollar a month. First the problems are really to many to go into but here are a few. Stern will then have to gamble that he still has the popularity to get to a point that it is going to be profitable that could be more of a gamble then his ego will allow. Considering if he just stays put then he could most likely earn more then going out on his own. As for terrestrial stations how can Stern explain, first why he said he would never go back to terrestrial he is now back to them, Then he has to explain why he was willing to go back and get less then what SIRIXM was willing to give him (even though it was less then before). Because yes thats right there is no way terrestrial will be able to come even close to what SIRIXM will still be offering. There is noway Stern ego will allow anything that makes him look like he was wrong.

  3. #23
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    Isnt there some objective way of measuring his audience at SXM?
    Surely Mel knows those figures.
    They know who is listening to what by the ISD number (i think that's what it's called) on each individual radio.

    As far as Stern goes, who knows, but I think his audience is a little larger than 2.2 MM subs. I don't know the sub growth since his signing, but wasn't it larger than 2.2 MM??

    Do the math. 2 MM subs at $10 per month = $20 MM per month x 12 months = $240 MM in revenue (conservatively). How much of that is he worth? I'm thinking this is his side of the negotiation.

    I have 3 subs. If Stern goes, I will have less than 3 subs. Yes, I enjoy the product, but Stern is the major reason.

  4. #24
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    They know who is listening to what by the ISD number (i think that's what it's called) on each individual radio.

    As far as Stern goes, who knows, but I think his audience is a little larger than 2.2 MM subs. I don't know the sub growth since his signing, but wasn't it larger than 2.2 MM??

    Do the math. 2 MM subs at $10 per month = $20 MM per month x 12 months = $240 MM in revenue (conservatively). How much of that is he worth? I'm thinking this is his side of the negotiation.

    I have 3 subs. If Stern goes, I will have less than 3 subs. Yes, I enjoy the product, but Stern is the major reason.




    SiriuslyLong, the 2.2 million number is for the 4th quarter prior and the following 1.75 years after Stern came to SIRI. If you notice Stern only got the bonuses for that time and nothing after that. Also while many called for the "Stern effect" to tapper off in the first year they found they had been off by almost 9 months.

    Finally while that is a simple way to add up the numbers to see if Stern was worth it or not you forget about the cost of the radio which at the time when Stern got most of his subscribers cost SIRI much more then they were selling them for. For at least the first 6 months and up to a year, that 10 dollars a month went to the extra cost of the radio.


    P.S. If you dont believe me just take a look at what SAC numbers were back then.
    Last edited by john; 01-07-2010 at 01:07 PM.

  5. #25
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    SiriuslyLong, the 2.2 million number is for the 4th quarter prior and the following 1.75 years after Stern came to SIRI. If you notice Stern only got the bonuses for that time and nothing after that. Also while many called for the "Stern effect" to tapper off in the first year they found they had been off by almost 9 months.

    Finally while that is a simple way to add up the numbers to see if Stern was worth it or not you forget about the cost of the radio which at the time when Stern got most of his subscribers cost SIRI much more then they were selling them for. For at least the first 6 months and up to a year, that 10 dollars a month went to the extra cost of the radio.


    P.S. If you dont believe me just take a look at what SAC numbers were back then.
    John - Stern got most of his subscribers 2.5 - 3.5 years ago. I agree my "model" is extremely simple, but pretty good for top line use. Feel free to refine it with additional costs.

    Can you clarify one thing for me? BM had written an article last month saying that the $100 MM was for the show, and Howard's pay was a portion of that. Is that true?

  6. #26
    Havakasha is offline
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    The 100 million Howard got per year was to also pay for the running costs (salaries and all other expenses) of his channels.

  7. #27
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    The 100 million Howard got per year was to also pay for the running costs (salaries and all other expenses) of his channels.
    Interesting, keeping it simple then, SIRI makes out to the tune of $140 MM in the example noted above. What's missing? It can't be that simple.

  8. #28
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by doclogic View Post
    Def agree Julie........ I posted on thestreet.com..."

    those exact thoughts......Howard drew the crowd at first....gave a nice PR bump......he brought attention and subscribers to Sirius, but he's not what Sirius is about anymore. There are so many other options and reasons why people like and listen to Sirius.

    I say keep him.....he's a nice piece to the puzzle....but he's not why Sirius will continue to progress in the future.

    Good Morning doclo and guys,

    And welcome, especially after agreeing with me.

    Another thought/point, I would like to bring up. Back when I listened
    to Stern on terrestrial, his show was edgy, shocking and censored to
    a great deal.

    I looked forward to hearing all those missing words and pieces
    that were eliminated from his show. So after the intial 'Oh my God,
    did he really say that?!!' he lost the shock element of his show that
    drew the intial subscribers to follow him to Sirius. Really, how many
    four, five and six letter words before we become numb to hearing
    them? Other eliments to his show, great interveiws for instance,
    draw me in to listen. But great interveiws can be found elsewhere
    on my dial. If he decides to leave I will miss him, for a short
    time, but in no way would I cancel my sub. And I am not alone
    in my thinking, in my opinion.

    Like John said Howards ego is too big for him to just walk away,
    disappearing into the woodwork. Wealthy or not, he needs to
    be in the limelight.

    Good to see you and all the new members posting. Especially
    good when you are agreeing with me.

    Julie

  9. #29
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    John - Stern got most of his subscribers 2.5 - 3.5 years ago. I agree my "model" is extremely simple, but pretty good for top line use. Feel free to refine it with additional costs.

    Can you clarify one thing for me? BM had written an article last month saying that the $100 MM was for the show, and Howard's pay was a portion of that. Is that true?
    Yes it is. BM is about 2 years to late for that information though because it was talked about at least that long ago here at Sirius Buzz. Stern also had to use some of that to build the sets for the two channels. He produces both of them with much of the expeniense coming from Stern himself. Dont get me wrong here SIRIXM still covers some to alot to all of the pay for others on his 2 channels. "Bubba the love Sponge" is a good example were SIRIXM picks up the cost of him.

  10. #30
    john is offline
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    SiriuslyLong, Also on point of that "ISD number", while XMSR had that tech to track what people were listening to, long before SIRI it was not until just a year ago SIRI had that. As a matter of fact the article I read inwhich it talked about that, was never confirmed to be true and there was other evidence (ho yes by that bastard homer) that they still could not track that information up till 6 months ago. So I am even reluctant to say they can do it at this time.





    P.S. To be honest it may have been Tyler, I am not sure which bastard it was.

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