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Thread: Francis C Cambridge Fan/hate Club

  1. #11
    JasonL is offline
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    Thumbs up to merge or not to merge, that is the question

    Love the feedback, and once again I agree with Francis on one level, the level that XM will not survive without a shot of testosterone, maybe we can call in McNamee to help out, and get some advice from Clemens.
    All joking aside, Sirius is the stronger company, espcially after the recent onslaught of advertising, while XM sat back and twiddled their thumbs.
    Without the merger, in a way, may help sirius, cause their is only room for one satellite radio company, as analysts have mentioned. Francis is right, I know several people already that have cancelled their XM membership, simply cause they didnt like it. If the merger fails, I see sweeping changes, job cuts, restructuring, ect ect. And at that point, since Im waiting all this out and im all in till the deal is done or undone. With that said, I would prefer to be with the stronger company, in my opinion, is Sirius.
    My projections, as so many people love to do, Is this:
    Merger approved:
    SIRI - $5.85 - $6.50 per share - temporarily then fall
    XMSR - $18.50 - $21.00 - temporarily then fall

    Merger denied:
    SIRI - $1.85 - $2.25 per share temporarily then raise to $3.25 after a few months
    XMSR - $6.50 - $7.00 and I think it will hold, until the dismal dropping
    subscription rate gets exposed, then tumble some more

    Just my fun little take on it, but to answer questions, I would purchase SIRI over XMSR, XMSR just too risky, both stocks are risky, but XM riskier of the 2.
    And I do see XMSR going end up without outside help, in which they will probably get if merger denied.
    -J

  2. #12
    Francis C Cambridge is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2007 Location: J'habite a Vegas mes amis!! Posts: 14

    Mn frere Jason

    Yo J Dizzle,

    Word! You are right with your wisdom. Thank you for being a part of our website. Look forward to hearing from you soon.

    Au Revoir Mon Ami

    Francis C Cambridge

  3. #13
    Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonLantz
    My projections, as so many people love to do, Is this:
    Merger approved:
    SIRI - $5.85 - $6.50 per share - temporarily then fall
    XMSR - $18.50 - $21.00 - temporarily then fall
    I dont see how in the world you arrive at XM's numbers.
    XM will be getting 4.6 shares of Sirius when they are converted. If Sirius is worth $5.85 a share at your low point (which I think is overly high, I still see 5-5.50), that makes each share of XM worth $26.91 just in the conversion.
    You are undervaluing XM too much, while overvalueing Sirius.
    Merger Passes:
    Sirius $5-5.50 (perhaps 6 for a moment)
    XM $23-25

    Merger Fails:
    Sirius $2 and the ever dropping market cap makes them a prime buyout.
    XM $8 and the ever dropping market cap makes them a prime buyout.

  4. #14
    minnesota is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2008 Location: Minnesota Posts: 56
    Gentlemen:

    Thank you for all of this speculation! It's going to interesting. What are the odds that this merger won't go through? If there was any real reason for doubt it would have been denied long ago. There, I speculated.

  5. #15
    Francis C Cambridge is offline
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    merger will go through

    Merger????

    The merger will go through............It has to, especially in this economy. Lots of speculation on the timing coming out today. But, as Tyler wisely wrote..........It's speculation and just that. Hold my brother, just hold on.

    My sources tell me that Valentines day 2008 will be a nice day for Sat radio.

    Francis C Cambridge

  6. #16
    minnesota is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2008 Location: Minnesota Posts: 56
    Hello Francis:

    You are amusing! Valentines Day is too sweet!

  7. #17
    JasonL is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 107

    XMSR values

    to be quite honest Newman, I pay about as much attention to XM as I do Britney Spears, so all I am personally concerned about is SIRIUS, being that I only have SIRI stock. Maybe I should have left out XM values all together, cause I just really dont care what values their shares are worth. I find it sucks that the market has paralleled those 2 stock prices together for over 10 months, cause SIRI has done much better over the last 8 months, but they keep fluctuating together, in which I feel is holding the sirius stock down.
    Personally, I see the merger as a power play and a way to make money in stocks (or lose money), as I said before, once the merger passes, I sell. I have no intent on riding the sirius wave much longer than that. Sorry for the less than accurate XM values.

  8. #18
    Francis C Cambridge is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2007 Location: J'habite a Vegas mes amis!! Posts: 14

    Thanknk you Minnesota

    Thank you for the comments my Twin Cities friend. The question is to hold shares of SIRI, or sell post merger? I am not sure. I am still rather young at 32, so I will probably hold on to my shares and cash in a fat lottery ticket at 62 and move to Southern France. Who knows right? Anyway, I appreciate your comments and it is nice chatting with all you guys. I am long, long...............

    Merci mon frere et a bientot........

    Francis C Cambridge

  9. #19
    minnesota is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2008 Location: Minnesota Posts: 56
    Hello Francis:

    Ah, another week begins and one day closer to Valentine's Day!

    I am messing around here with my kids inheritance you know.

    Wink-wink

    Minnesota

  10. #20
    Francis C Cambridge is offline
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    wink wink

    Minnesota Madness,

    Sorry about losing the best pitcher in baseball, Santana is the man! As for the merger, it will go through in my honest opinion. I would be truly shocked if it was turned down. I do not know about you spending your kids college fund. If the merger goes through, your kids could be going to Berkeley instead of some Jr. College right? LOL

    I originally stated Valentines day 2008. Let's hope Cupid comes a little early hu?

    Kirby Puckett be da man!

    Francis C. Cambridge

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