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Thread: A Sirius Question

  1. #1
    minnesota is offline
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    Exclamation A Sirius Question

    I read a lot about what will happen if the merger goes through, but I'd like to know your opinions on what will happen if it doesn't?

  2. #2
    Newman is offline
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    To be completely honest with you, Satellite Radio is too big and too inovative as an industry not to make waves. If for some odd reason the merger doesnt go through, I see at least one, if not both, of the satellite radio companies getting bought up by a larger company. But WHO and WHICH ONE is the question.

    XM has the lower market cap. XM also has the larger OEMs. XM also has much slower growth and higher costs. That being said, someone that does not care about the name will buy XM. That someone would be someone that has aleady made a big name for themselves. Potential suiters would be Apple, Google, and perhaps Microsoft, etc. I have also thought many times that GM might take a stab at it, combining it with thier OnStar services (which already uses XM bandwith as part of their contract) to compete with Fords new Sync, but I just dont see GM forking over that much cash.

    Sirius has the higher market cap, the higher dilution, and the smaller OEMS. But they have what XM does not: GROWTH. They are growing very fast and Sirius is a very recognizable name with a very strong shelf presence. A company who has not capitalized on a name of their own will want to latch on to this rapid growth and popularity. Potential suiters would be Clear Channel and various other terrestrial radio stations, but perhaps Microsoft would want to jump into this one as well, since thier ZUNE was not as much of a hit as they had hoped. Perhaps one of the Sat TV companies would be interested, but I dont see this happening.

    As stand alone companies, I see Both surviving, but taking a VERY long time to make any money at all. Cash Flow Positive is not the same thing as profitable, and the two companies havent even hit THAT two quarters in a row.

  3. #3
    TSavery is offline
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    It will be interesting

    Having followed the career of Mel Karmazin, I know that he already has plan B, Plan C, and perhaps Plan D in place. Karmazin is a deal maker. Even if the deal happens, Karmazin has a plan to keep growth happening.

    If the merger does not pass, the companies will continue on.

    As Newman states, the one with the lower market cap may get gobbled up along the way, but the technology of SDARS will continue
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  4. #4
    minnesota is offline
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    Thank you gentlemen! Interesting scenarios.

    I believe, as a consumer, that Sirius has better programming than XM, even if my favorite channel 110 on Sirius is gone. Are there any studies on the age groups of subscribers to each of these companies?

    Thank you.

  5. #5
    TSavery is offline
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    minnesota

    There are a few around. My sister site www.satcos.blogpot.com has some interesting surveys in it. We have not run a poll on satcos recently, but the information there is interesting
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  6. #6
    minnesota is offline
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    Thanks Tyler!

  7. #7
    Francis C Cambridge is offline
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    Sirius will be fine by itself in my opinion. XM is going down, a very slow death. I do not think that we will see $ 20.00 a share for several years, but I think SIRI is a lottery ticket worth holding on to. I have a few tickets myself. Thanks for being on the forum!

  8. #8
    minnesota is offline
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    Thank you gentlemen. I have learned a great deal in a short period of time. I like the company I am keeping! Thank you for your input.

  9. #9
    minnesota is offline
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    Talking Look What I Found

    Govt. Could Approve XM-Sirius Merger in Coming Days
    Authored by Mark Hefflinger on January 23, 2008 - 8:47am.

    Washington - Following months of conjecture and anticipation, federal regulators could be on the verge of approving XM Satellite Radio's (NASD: XMSR) merger with rival Sirius (NASD: SIRI), according to a published report. Briefing.com on Wednesday cited an unnamed source in reporting that the merger "could receive approval from DOJ and FCC tonight."

    The speculation sent shares of both companies sharply higher in morning trading.

    XM and Sirius have spent the past several months lobbying government and regulatory officials to support the proposed $5 billion merger.

    The companies originally agreed to the deal last February.


    FYI GENTLEMAN

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